The 2024 Presidential Election- The LONG General Election

[TGHusker]

20 minutes ago, Scarlet said:

Tens of people crushed by this announcement

 

 

That is good news - even if those 'tens of people' are sadden.  The few for the many as they say.    

If Manchin doesn't run, I don't see anyone jumping on the No Labels band wagon.   Hopefully Manchin, Liz, Romney and others can convincingly make the case that a vote for Trump is a vote against democracy  and a vote for Biden (regardless of his flaws) is a vote for democracy.  While the border would be the # 1 issue in a normal election, this year it is democracy and whether we will elect a want-to-be tyrant as president.  America is better than that.  

[Scarlet]

1 hour ago, TGHusker said:

That is good news - even if those 'tens of people' are sadden.  The few for the many as they say.    

If Manchin doesn't run, I don't see anyone jumping on the No Labels band wagon.   Hopefully Manchin, Liz, Romney and others can convincingly make the case that a vote for Trump is a vote against democracy  and a vote for Biden (regardless of his flaws) is a vote for democracy.  While the border would be the # 1 issue in a normal election, this year it is democracy and whether we will elect a want-to-be tyrant as president.  America is better than that.  

I would agree with this but why not make the border an issue?  It's obvious that Trump isn't serious about solving the issue.  He's the guy after all behind squashing the most stringent bipartisan deal in our lifetimes.  Biden and the Democrats need to bash MAGA over the head with the bully pulpit.  Use MAGA's talking point and their own failures on the border to your advantage.  That strategy just paid off in NY-03

[TGHusker]

1 hour ago, Scarlet said:

I would agree with this but why not make the border an issue?  It's obvious that Trump isn't serious about solving the issue.  He's the guy after all behind squashing the most stringent bipartisan deal in our lifetimes.  Biden and the Democrats need to bash MAGA over the head with the bully pulpit.  Use MAGA's talking point and their own failures on the border to your advantage.  That strategy just paid off in NY-03

I agree 100% - my statement about democracy isn't to distract from the boarder issue.  However, to your point, Trump and MAGA just played themselves into Biden's hands.  All Biden has to do is put the tape on continual play of the vote for border reform, Trump stating he wants this as an issue, the Senate GOP pulling their support for the bill and of course the House stating it would be DOA.   The full cult mindset is at play here.  As many noted, this was the toughest Border bill in decades and the GOP bowed down to their cult leader and dropped it like a very hot potato.    The GOP proved themselves to being a non-serious governing party and a very serious opposition (to solving real problems) party.  Any time the GOP brings up the border crisis (which would have played in their favor prior to this boondoggle) all the Dems have to do is cue up the tape of GOP removing their support of a solution that they helped to create.  

[Dr. Strangelove]

1 hour ago, TGHusker said:

I agree 100% - my statement about democracy isn't to distract from the boarder issue.  However, to your point, Trump and MAGA just played themselves into Biden's hands.  All Biden has to do is put the tape on continual play of the vote for border reform, Trump stating he wants this as an issue, the Senate GOP pulling their support for the bill and of course the House stating it would be DOA.   The full cult mindset is at play here.  As many noted, this was the toughest Border bill in decades and the GOP bowed down to their cult leader and dropped it like a very hot potato.    The GOP proved themselves to being a non-serious governing party and a very serious opposition (to solving real problems) party.  Any time the GOP brings up the border crisis (which would have played in their favor prior to this boondoggle) all the Dems have to do is cue up the tape of GOP removing their support of a solution that they helped to create.  

The issue is that Biden can point to the GOP nuking their own border bill all he wants, there is no amount of messaging that will get through to voters. 

 

Simply pointing to reality is not enough to sway voters - look at the conservative posters on this message board. It's a hopeless cause.

[Archy1221]

55 minutes ago, Dr. Strangelove said:

The issue is that Biden can point to the GOP nuking their own border bill all he wants, there is no amount of messaging that will get through to voters. 

You can keep saying something that isn’t true, but it’s not gonna ever actually make it true.   It wasn’t a GOP border bill like you claim.  

[teachercd]

2 hours ago, Dr. Strangelove said:

The issue is that Biden can point to the GOP nuking their own border bill all he wants, there is no amount of messaging that will get through to voters. 

 

Simply pointing to reality is not enough to sway voters - look at the conservative posters on this message board. It's a hopeless cause.

We have pointed out more than a few posters here that are not voting R anymore.  You and others have changed their minds.  Just like I have changed posters minds about abortion and guns.

 

You keep saying that voters won't change their minds but out of the 10 or main posters in this forum about 20-30% have change their mind.

[Dr. Strangelove]

19 hours ago, teachercd said:

We have pointed out more than a few posters here that are not voting R anymore.  You and others have changed their minds.  Just like I have changed posters minds about abortion and guns.

 

You keep saying that voters won't change their minds but out of the 10 or main posters in this forum about 20-30% have change their mind.

That's because they don't, the United States is very big. Changing the minds of posters on the internet doesn't help when the vast majority don't pay much attention to politics, aren't plugged into reality, and who's opinions aren't don't change much. 

 

20 hours ago, Archy1221 said:

You can keep saying something that isn’t true, but it’s not gonna ever actually make it true.   It wasn’t a GOP border bill like you claim.  

Like I said, hopeless. 

 

Exhibit A above. No matter how many Republicans come forward and say that the bill was killed because Trump told them to kill it, the MAGA believers won't change their minds. @teachercd you seem to think that pointing to reality is enough for these voters, it isn't. This poster is a perfect example of how voters craft their own reality, and there are millions just like him.

[teachercd]

39 minutes ago, Dr. Strangelove said:

That's because they don't, the United States is very big. Changing the minds of posters on the internet doesn't help when the vast majority don't pay much attention to politics, aren't plugged into reality, and who's opinions aren't don't change much. 

 

Like I said, hopeless. 

 

Exhibit A above. No matter how many Republicans come forward and say that the bill was killed because Trump told them to kill it, the MAGA believers won't change their minds. @teachercd you seem to think that pointing to reality is enough for these voters, it isn't. This poster is a perfect example of how voters craft their own reality, and there are millions just like him.

Are you saying @JJ Husker and @BigRedBuster are lying?  Because the reality was enough

 

just like I changed the reality of abortion for one or the posters here. 

[TGHusker]

3 hours ago, Dr. Strangelove said:

That's because they don't, the United States is very big. Changing the minds of posters on the internet doesn't help when the vast majority don't pay much attention to politics, aren't plugged into reality, and who's opinions aren't don't change much. 

 

Like I said, hopeless. 

 

Exhibit A above. No matter how many Republicans come forward and say that the bill was killed because Trump told them to kill it, the MAGA believers won't change their minds. @teachercd you seem to think that pointing to reality is enough for these voters, it isn't. This poster is a perfect example of how voters craft their own reality, and there are millions just like him.

I don’t care about trump voters. They are a lost cause.  It are the independents and marginal Dems who may not like the Biden option 

[Archy1221]

6 hours ago, Dr. Strangelove said:

 

Exhibit A above. No matter how many Republicans come forward and say that the bill was killed because Trump told them to kill it, the MAGA believers won't change their minds

That was a pretty slick sleight of hand trick you pulled and confused a few folks here.  
 

Notice you moved on to whether Trump asked people to kill the Senate bill in response to a post of me letting you know it wasn’t a “GOP bill” again.  
 

GOP doesn’t control the Senate, can’t control what comes out of the Senate, and Langford is as close to an open borders Republican as one can get.  

[DevoHusker]

 

 

[Archy1221]

It’s just a stutter

 

 

[Dr. Strangelove]

On 2/17/2024 at 2:44 PM, teachercd said:

Are you saying @JJ Husker and @BigRedBuster are lying?  Because the reality was enough

 

just like I changed the reality of abortion for one or the posters here. 

What I'm saying is that they're are millions of voters, and that the vast majority are going to vote the same way in 2024 as they did in 2020. 

 

Are some people changing their minds? Sure. Is it enough to swing a state? No. 

 

The winner of the election is going to be whichever candidate has motivated voters. Donald Trump commands a horde of voters who are going to show up to the polls. The question is if Biden voters are equally motivated. I think that's not the case, personally, and therefore think his odds of winning are lower. 

 

20 hours ago, Archy1221 said:

That was a pretty slick sleight of hand trick you pulled and confused a few folks here.  
 

Notice you moved on to whether Trump asked people to kill the Senate bill in response to a post of me letting you know it wasn’t a “GOP bill” again.  
 

GOP doesn’t control the Senate, can’t control what comes out of the Senate, and Langford is as close to an open borders Republican as one can get.  

It came from a Democrat controlled Senate, but the bill largely captures most of the policy goals of the GOP and is easily the most concessions they will ever get from Democrats. The GOP also asked for Ukraine/Other aid to be tied to it. 

 

Congratulations on your party killing the only immigration bill they will ever get. But that's sort of the GOP in a nutshell, a morally bankrupt toxic sludge of a party who's only policy goal they deliver on is cutting taxes for the wealthy. Sort of crazy how every one of their Administration ends up with the economy in a recession going back 30 years.

[teachercd]

2 minutes ago, Dr. Strangelove said:

What I'm saying is that they're are millions of voters, and that the vast majority are going to vote the same way in 2024 as they did in 2020. 

 

Are some people changing their minds? Sure. Is it enough to swing a state? No. 

 

The winner of the election is going to be whichever candidate has motivated voters. Donald Trump commands a horde of voters who are going to show up to the polls. The question is if Biden voters are equally motivated. I think that's not the case, personally, and therefore think his odds of winning are lower. 

 

It came from a Democrat controlled Senate, but the bill largely captures most of the policy goals of the GOP and is easily the most concessions they will ever get from Democrats. The GOP also asked for Ukraine/Other aid to be tied to it. 

 

Congratulations on your party killing the only immigration bill they will ever get. But that's sort of the GOP in a nutshell, a morally bankrupt toxic sludge of a party who's only policy goal they deliver on is cutting taxes for the wealthy. Sort of crazy how every one of their Administration ends up with the economy in a recession going back 30 years.

If not enough voters are going to "change their mind" then Joe will win with ease.  Because he won with ease last time.

 

You can't have it both ways.  It can't be that people ARE NOT changing their mind and therefor Trump will win because if people not changing their mind than Joe wins.  

 

But you also want it to be that thousands of people ARE going to change their mind based on the price of gas and therefor Joe will lose.

 

You seem to think that the ONLY people that are changing their mind are going to be the ones that voted for Joe last time, and they voted for him TO STOP TRUMP but NOW they are going to change their mind (something you said people don't do) and they are going to vote for Trump.

[Dr. Strangelove]

11 minutes ago, teachercd said:

If not enough voters are going to "change their mind" then Joe will win with ease.  Because he won with ease last time.

This is not true. He won by ~20k votes spread around 3 states. Out of ~155 million votes cast. That's a margin of 0.00013%. Razor thin. The next election will be similar. 

 

14 minutes ago, teachercd said:

You can't have it both ways.  It can't be that people ARE NOT changing their mind and therefor Trump will win because if people not changing their mind than Joe wins.  

 

But you also want it to be that thousands of people ARE going to change their mind based on the price of gas and therefor Joe will lose.

In elections, voters vote for the same individuals as they did the last time, the vast majority of the time. Voter preference is extremely rigid and opinions don't change.  What decides elections is which voters are motivated to turnout. Candidates lose not because minds change, but because their voters stay home. 

 

The individuals who do truly change their vote, and there are not many, are the least informed voters. They either have no idea that Trump has legal problems or they chalk it up to normal politics. These few voters vote based on their personal economic situations are doing in the 4 weeks leading up to election day. 

 

The election is going to be close enough that these individuals could decide the election. But their opinions aren't changeable because they don't really have any. It's going to matter what gas prices do or if they pay more for their most common purchases.