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The 2024 Presidential Election- The LONG General Election


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8 minutes ago, Dr. Strangelove said:

This is not true. He won by ~20k votes spread around 3 states. Out of ~155 million votes cast. That's a margin of 0.00013%. Razor thin. The next election will be similar. 

 

In elections, voters vote for the same individuals as they did the last time, the vast majority of the time. Voter preference is extremely rigid and opinions don't change.  What decides elections is which voters are motivated to turnout. Candidates lose not because minds change, but because their voters stay home. 

 

The individuals who do truly change their vote, and there are not many, are the least informed voters. They either have no idea that Trump has legal problems or they chalk it up to normal politics. These few voters vote based on their personal economic situations are doing in the 4 weeks leading up to election day. 

 

The election is going to be close enough that these individuals could decide the election. But their opinions aren't changeable because they don't really have any. It's going to matter what gas prices do or if they pay more for their most common purchases.

I get what you are saying but you saying it both ways.

 

1.  People don't change their minds

2.  People do change their minds

 

Which is it?  Do people change their minds or don't they?  How about we start with that simple question and then we can go from there.

 

So we have from you that the vast majority do not change their mind and vote the same way they did the time before.

 

Then you have that the few that do change their mind, are the ones that are stupid.  But, Joe got more votes than any other president ever, which means millions of people "changed their mind" because Hillary did NOT get that many votes, not even close...so were those 20 million mind-changers, that voted for Joe, also stupid and uninformed?  

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1 hour ago, teachercd said:

But, Joe got more votes than any other president ever, which means millions of people "changed their mind" because Hillary did NOT get that many votes, not even close...so were those 20 million mind-changers, that voted for Joe, also stupid and uninformed?  

 

 

It's not people changing their minds, it's people showing up.

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1 minute ago, Lorewarn said:

 

 

It's not people changing their minds, it's people showing up.

That is changing minds.

 

Your mind is made up to not show and then you do...that is changing a mind.

 

in 16 they had their mind made up to NOT vote, in 20 they changed their mind.

 

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11 minutes ago, teachercd said:

That is changing minds.

 

Your mind is made up to not show and then you do...that is changing a mind.

 

in 16 they had their mind made up to NOT vote, in 20 they changed their mind.

 

 

 

Since it seems that you understand the distinction it also seems abundantly clear what he's talking about vs what he's not talking about.

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2 minutes ago, Lorewarn said:

 

 

Since it seems that you understand the distinction it also seems abundantly clear what he's talking about vs what he's not talking about.

Of course I do!

 

He is trying to be on both sides of the fence, which is fine but it doesn't work.  You also totally know what he is talking about.  We all do.  It is easy to understand.  He is not being sneaky or nefarious about it.  

 

 

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1 hour ago, teachercd said:

Of course I do!

 

He is trying to be on both sides of the fence, which is fine but it doesn't work.  You also totally know what he is talking about.  We all do.  It is easy to understand.  He is not being sneaky or nefarious about it.  

 

 

From my understanding it's a math issue. There are very few voters who will vote the opposite from 2020. That would be a 2 vote swing. Minus for one candidate and plus one for the other. He just thinks it will be an issue of minus one vote cast by not voting at all. The candidate who wins will be the one who can get the "meh" voters out for them. The bases will show out on 11/5. Can you get the voters who will decide to come out if it's a nice day and the lines aren't too long?

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1 minute ago, Mike Mcdee said:

From my understanding it's a math issue. There are very few voters who will vote the opposite from 2020. That would be a 2 vote swing. Minus for one candidate and plus one for the other. He just thinks it will be an issue of minus one vote cast by not voting at all. The candidate who wins will be the one who can get the "meh" voters out for them. The bases will show out on 11/5. Can you get the voters who will decide to come out if it's a nice day and the lines aren't too long?

I think (and have said over and over) that this is the case.

 

No one here knows ONE NEW TRUMP VOTER.  Not one.  

 

No one here knows one new "Not voting for JB this time" voter.

 

That is on this site and in our personal lives.  Yet...all this "JB is going to get crushed if the price of eggs goes up" talk.

 

JB will get 10% less voters

Trump (if it even ends up being him) will get 15% less voters

 

It won't be close. 

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