The 2024 Presidential Election- The LONG General Election

[Dr. Strangelove]

2 hours ago, Danny Bateman said:

Meh, maybe, maybe not. It’s a binary outcome. One of the two sides wins. So I don’t get too caught up in gaming out different variables or minor factors like third party. I’m sure as s#!t not losing any sleep over a Kennedy failson or some No Labels circlejerk that might impact things on the margins.

 

Since I’m 100% locked in with my vote with no reservations, there are a couple points I hang my hat on that keep me sane these days.

 

One is just that it’s not even March. The primary is still ongoing for both parties, nominally. There’s still so much that will happen yet that will affect public opinion and ultimately voting intention. The average American voter has the attention span of a goldfish. Thus I no more trust a poll for the November election in February than I do a primary poll in May of 2023.

 

The other piece is that Trump hemorrhages support among his soft supporters if he’s convicted of ANYTHING. This one is a bit more conditional, as it requires the very slow burn of our justice system to continue cranking along and ultimately bend toward actual accountability. But if it does his non MAGA supporters are going to head for the exits. Poor, he loses. He simply cannot win with the hardcores alone. Thus I also don’t give a single rip what the hardcore MAGA crowd thinks or does. Once most voters stop daydreaming that this rematch isn’t inevitable, as much as we all don’t want it to be, many of the will realize Trump is the same corrupt, self-serving obnoxious prick he’s always been and they still really dislike him. Coupled with an actual criminal record I think it’s enough to sink him.

 

I actually agree with most of your analysis and generally really enjoy your input anyway, this is merely playing devil’s advocate to find silver linings for anyone who’s too stressed out by all of this.

I think this is a fair take. 

 

We'll get an idea over the summer if Trump's legal woes actually start to erode his electoral support. Being liable for rape and defaming his victim seem to have little to no effect on his support thus far. He's also likely to get a bump when SCOTUS rules in his favor in the Colorado case.

 

One main point you make which is completely valid is that the average voter is still unaware that Trump has essentially clinched the nomination. Polling this far out isn't accurate, and the true gravity of a 2020 rematch may not be reflected in polling thus far. 

[Danny Bateman]

8 hours ago, Moiraine said:

 

 

Sorry to try to affect your sanity but this third party candidate isn’t minor. He’s polling at 14% right now. That’s closer to Perot than it is to Nader or Stein. 

Yeah I know. It’s a shame that many people could fall for a kook huckster like Kennedy. But again I think that polling number primarily reflects a couple broader things about our system. A) People are mad the system doesn’t produce candidates they like and B) most voters who aren’t already decided are still generally politically disconnected and may just pick Kennedy right now based on name recognition.

 

 I suspect ultimately a couple dark money groups will move to hatchet Kennedy by highlighting some of the actually odious positions he holds and what a weirdo he actually is if his polling remains high. 

 

But the electorate is much different than it was in ‘92 or ‘96. People loathed the choices in 2016 too. The Libertarians had a very high profile ticket boosted by the other options. Between them and the Greens the finished with 4.35% of the vote. There is no viable Green this year so I suspect Kennedy ultimately settles closer to that number than his current polling.

 

The wonder of our system is even if I’m right, we all get to nailbite over where that smaller percentage is concentrated before we know how upset we should be.

[Archy1221]

16 hours ago, Dr. Strangelove said:

The voting electorate isn't identical in each state since people move, new voters reach the age of 18

Voters who reached 18 and voted Democrat are now 45-55 and vote Republican.  Hence they changed their mind.   Cross tab polling data has shown for decades that Democrats win the young vote and Republicans tend to win the older vote.   People aren’t just born older.   Over time they change their mind of how to vote. 

[Archy1221]

7 hours ago, Dr. Strangelove said:

 

One main point you make which is completely valid is that the average voter is still unaware that Trump has essentially clinched the nomination.

And where do you get this data from?   It’s more likely quite the opposite from your take. 

[BigRedBuster]

 

[commando]

15 minutes ago, Archy1221 said:

Voters who reached 18 and voted Democrat are now 45-55 and vote Republican.  Hence they changed their mind.   Cross tab polling data has shown for decades that Democrats win the young vote and Republicans tend to win the older vote.   People aren’t just born older.   Over time they change their mind of how to vote. 

i voted for Reagan when i was 18 and i voted for Biden when i was 58.   

[Archy1221]

4 minutes ago, commando said:

i voted for Reagan when i was 18 and i voted for Biden when i was 58.   

So you are telling me you changed your mind

[commando]

3 minutes ago, Archy1221 said:

So you are telling me you changed your mind

and you are telling me reagan was a democrat and biden is a republican since young people vote for democrats and when they get older they vote republican.   

[TGHusker]

9 minutes ago, commando said:

i voted for Reagan when i was 18 and i voted for Biden when i was 58.   

Basically my story.  I was 25 in 1980 and voted for Reagan then and in 1984 and would still vote for him versus any of the current GOPers.

I haven't voted for the GOP nominated presidential candidate since Romney.  I'm becoming more moderate the older I get - people matter thus policy matters.  The GOP only views policy as the thing that matters. 

[commando]

19 minutes ago, TGHusker said:

Basically my story.  I was 25 in 1980 and voted for Reagan then and in 1984 and would still vote for him versus any of the current GOPers.

I haven't voted for the GOP nominated presidential candidate since Romney.  I'm becoming more moderate the older I get - people matter thus policy matters.  The GOP only views policy as the thing that matters. 

i might vote GOP again if we ever get them on the ballot....but this MAGA takeover of the party isn't for me.

[TGHusker]

2 minutes ago, commando said:

i might vote GOP again if we ever get them on the ballot....but this MAGA takeover of the party isn't for me.

Agreed - trump kidnapped the party, changed the branding and it is now a wholly unrecognizable party to that of Lincoln, Eisenhower, Reagan.

The name should be changed. 

[Archy1221]

46 minutes ago, commando said:

and you are telling me reagan was a democrat and biden is a republican since young people vote for democrats and when they get older they vote republican.   

No i actually didn’t if you read the post you replied to.   

 

Im hoping you don’t disagree with the historical polling data that shows Democrats tend to win the youth vote and Republicans tend to win the older vote.   That can really only happen if folks tend to change their mind over time about what type of candidate to vote for or the importance of voting in general.   

This is for the voters don’t change their mind crowd, which you yourself just proved they do.   Thanks for helping me out btw!!! 

 

[Archy1221]

28 minutes ago, commando said:

i might vote GOP again if we ever get them on the ballot....but this MAGA takeover of the party isn't for me.

Looks like we have another person that proves voters do change their mind. 

[BigRedBuster]

21 hours ago, TGHusker said:

I wonder what that is about

Welp, it was my option #1.  Restate his devotion and love for dear leader.

 

 

[teachercd]

2 hours ago, commando said:

and you are telling me reagan was a democrat and biden is a republican since young people vote for democrats and when they get older they vote republican.   

Well, Reagan WAS a democrat