The 2022 Congressional Elections

[Dr. Strangelove]

54 minutes ago, Archy1221 said:

Since 1960, on 6 of the 15 midterm elections have the party opposite the President even won a positive 30 seats, so what your saying just isn’t true 

That was just my guess for Republicans to have a similar "wave" election similar to the first midterm after Clinton in 1994, Obama in 2010 or after Trump in 2018.

 

Considering their advantages in gerrymandering districts, inflation, systemic Senate seats, and the first election after a Democrat tri-fecta, Republicans are poised to win ~22 house seats and flip 1-2 Senate seats, the worst performance for an out party in 40 years.

 

To compare what a wave should look like:

Clinton in 1994: lost 52 house seats and 8 Senate seats

Bush in 2002: gained 8 house and 2 Senate seats (9/11 effect)

Obama in 2010: lost 63 house and 6 Senate seats

Trump in 2018: lost 40 house seats, gained 2 Senate seats

 

[Archy1221]

4 hours ago, Dr. Strangelove said:

Republicans are poised to win ~22 house seats and flip 1-2 Senate seats, the worst performance for an out party in 40 years.

How can this be when  just below these words you posted, in 2002 you mentioned the Dems lost both house and Senate seats.  That seems worse than what’s gonna happen next Tuesday wouldn’t ya think. 

[Archy1221]

I remember someone here saying Bolduc would lose pretty bad.   At. Anselm is the gold standard pollster for NH.  

 

 

[Danny Bateman]

1 hour ago, Archy1221 said:

How can this be when  just below these words you posted, in 2002 you mentioned the Dems lost both house and Senate seats.  That seems worse than what’s gonna happen next Tuesday wouldn’t ya think. 

 

9/11 boost.

[Archy1221]

41 minutes ago, Danny Bateman said:

 

9/11 boost.

Check out 1998, 1986, 1992, 2014 house, 1978, 1982, etc etc etc……..   I don’t think any of those years had a “9/11 boost”

[Dr. Strangelove]

3 hours ago, Archy1221 said:

Check out 1998, 1986, 1992, 2014 house, 1978, 1982, etc etc etc……..   I don’t think any of those years had a “9/11 boost”

I'm strictly referring to the first midterm into a Presidents tenure, which is why I provided you with the last 4 Presidents results. I should've clarified this in my previous post.

 

1986 was the second midterm for Reagan, as was 1998 for Clinton, and 2014 for Obama. The second midterm in a Presidency - year 6 - has a different dynamic than the first, where the incumbent party loses in a landslide, unless a 9/11 type of event occurs.

 

The results next week are likely to be similar to the loses Reagan suffered in 1982 - where incumbent Republicans lost 1 Senate and 26 House Seats, which is why I said the 2022 midterms will be the worst performance by an opposition party in over 40 years. 

[nic]

https://www.cnn.com/2022/11/02/politics/cnn-poll-democrats-midterm-elections/index.html
 

1) 42%: That’s President Joe Biden’s job approval rating among likely voters in the new poll, down from 46% in a CNN poll completed in September and early October. 

2) 61%: That’s the number of likely voters who say that Biden hasn’t paid enough attention to the most important problems facing the country. 

3) 51%: That’s the number of likely voters who say the economy is the key issue in determining their vote. Abortion – at 15%

4) 28%: That’s how many likely voters say things are going “very” or “fairly” well in the country. More than 7 in 10 (72%) say things are going “pretty” or “very” badly.

5) 75%: Three quarters of likely voters say the economy is in the midst of a recession.

[Guy Chamberlin]

It's a pretty old story. The GOP doesn't give two f#&%s about the rural poor and working class, but got them to vote against their economic self-interest by making them soldiers in a culture war against the intellectuals, homosexuals and scientists who live in big cities. 

 

So while the founding fathers may have rightly been concerned that agrarian and rural interests shouldn't necessarily be outvoted by the larger urban population, that's not the way it's currently playing out. 

[BigRedBuster]

16 minutes ago, nic said:

https://www.cnn.com/2022/11/02/politics/cnn-poll-democrats-midterm-elections/index.html
 

1) 42%: That’s President Joe Biden’s job approval rating among likely voters in the new poll, down from 46% in a CNN poll completed in September and early October. 

2) 61%: That’s the number of likely voters who say that Biden hasn’t paid enough attention to the most important problems facing the country. 

3) 51%: That’s the number of likely voters who say the economy is the key issue in determining their vote. Abortion – at 15%

4) 28%: That’s how many likely voters say things are going “very” or “fairly” well in the country. More than 7 in 10 (72%) say things are going “pretty” or “very” badly.

5) 75%: Three quarters of likely voters say the economy is in the midst of a recession.

This doesn’t surprise me. 
 

what specific issues do you think people have in mind when responding to these questions?

[nic]

6 hours ago, BigRedBuster said:

This doesn’t surprise me. 
 

what specific issues do you think people have in mind when responding to these questions?

In the article it only mentions the economy. Included would be Prices... Companies are starting to layoff...Mine is contemplating a hiring freeze. Abortion was a distant second. I have seen crime up there too. Republicans are getting their economy and crime messaging to stick. Dems have been pushing the abortion decision, but I doubt they win most of the states the have made stricter measures on Abortion anyway. the states where folks care more about abortion haven't restricted it, so they do not see it as a major issue for them???...i don't know. I think the Dems needed a different message than abortion. I am not sure what it would have been though.

 

Edit: Here is what I was trying to say above. This is from a CNN article on why abortion was 15 % in the above poll.

 

RESTON: I don’t think it was overinflated. I think that the dynamic at play on that issue is that it varies wildly from state to state.

 

https://www.cnn.com/2022/11/02/politics/midterm-election-undecided-voters-what-matters/index.html

 

[Archy1221]

 

[Dr. Strangelove]

13 minutes ago, Archy1221 said:

 

The crime wave in these Red states has morphed into a huge problem. 

 

Also, we should really do something about letting just anybody buy a gun! 

[BigRedBuster]

Just now, Dr. Strangelove said:

The crime wave in these Red states has morphed into a huge problem. 

 

Also, we should really do something about letting just anybody buy a gun! 

No, just arm the kids and buy them a bullet proof backpack.  Gameon. 

[BigRedBuster]

They're so smart.

 

 

[Archy1221]

13 minutes ago, BigRedBuster said:

No, just arm the kids and buy them a bullet proof backpack.  Gameon. 

Ahhhhh, different response standards for attacks on different political parties.   I assumed nothing different.  Party politics amirite.