Nebraska and the Big Ten: A decade of struggle for stability

[Undone]

11 minutes ago, Dr. Strangelove said:

The Blue Chip ratio is what matters for recruiting, at least if Nebraska wants a punchers chance at winning the conference.

 

Not intentionally singling out your post, but this dovetails with what I said a few posts up - we spend a lot of time talking about what it takes to win a conference title but our program would in reality be well-served by just taking the next step and having a winning season.

 

We're in a slump of four straight losing seasons and in my opinion the very real chance of making it a fifth after this one. We need to take the next step and post a 7-5 record and win a bowl game and turn it around from there.

[FrantzHardySwag]

5 minutes ago, Dr. Strangelove said:

I would say the recipe for them is easier: they have plenty of talent to recruit locally and play in a conference that isn't that difficult. Aside from FSU at the time (and recruiting in general being less top heavy even 5 years ago) allowed them to be successful. 

 

Now the gap between the top 3 or 4 classes and the rest of CFB is getting wider seemingly each year.

I don't want to focus on competing for national titles because we still have to take the first step still. Frost has averaged a better class than Dabo did leading up to the CFB Playoff, so while the recruiting is harder here, it's already good enough to compete. You have to walk before you run. As long as we recruit top 30 classes, we have the foundation in place. Once a staff shows they can win with top 30 classes, top 15 classes will follow, raising the ceiling of what the team can accomplish. 

[Dr. Strangelove]

6 minutes ago, Undone said:

 

Not intentionally singling out your post, but this dovetails with what I said a few posts up - we spend a lot of time talking about what it takes to win a conference title but our program would in reality be well-served by just taking the next step and having a winning season.

 

We're in a slump of four straight losing seasons and in my opinion the very real chance of making it a fifth after this one. We need to take the next step and post a 7-5 record and win a bowl game and turn it around from there.

Certainly. Nebraska needs to focus on winning any game, the conference is simply not an attainable goal right now. I agree completely. 

 

My posts are mostly in response to individuals who think having the #20 class is good enough to compete and that it is significantly better than classes ranked 50th. The reality is that it isn't. The talent advantage we have over our division is not hugely significant, as our class is similar in quality to Minnesota and Northwestern and is nowhere near the classes of Texas or North Carolina, spite what a class ranking number would suggest. 

[Dr. Strangelove]

5 minutes ago, FrantzHardySwag said:

I don't want to focus on competing for national titles because we still have to take the first step still. Frost has averaged a better class than Dabo did leading up to the CFB Playoff, so while the recruiting is harder here, it's already good enough to compete. You have to walk before you run. As long as we recruit top 30 classes, we have the foundation in place. Once a staff shows they can win with top 30 classes, top 15 classes will follow, raising the ceiling of what the team can accomplish. 

I tried to explain this previously, but comparing recruiting is a bit of a fools errand because it's relative. Recruiting better than Dabo on average is great, but does it matter?   

 

The talent distribution at the time was less top heavy. For example, in 2014 the #20 class in the country (Michigan) recruited one 5* and eight 4* players. 9 Blue Chip players in total. The #12 class that same year, Miami, recruited one 5* and seven 4* players for 8 blue chip players. The classes were very similar in terms of talent. Clemson had the #16 class and recruited ten 4* players, so most of those classes were similar in terms of talent. 

 

Fast forward and the problem is that the talent is not being distributed as equally. The top teams are hoarding more and more talent.  The #20 team goes from recruiting 9 blue chip players to recruiting 4. The #12 team goes from recruiting 8 blue chip players to 14. 

 

The distribution of talent is becoming more and more consolidated, the gaps between Nebraska and Wake Forest narrows while the gaps between Nebraska and Ohio State grows.

 

Dabo was able to win because he found a few key players, but played in a time where it was easier to win with less talent. He had about the same talent as teams ranked in the top 10, so by being a good coach and having good players at key positions, he won! 

 

It is much, much more difficult now. It isn't easy, and Nebraska needs baby steps and a good identity to win. 

[jaws]

1 hour ago, Undone said:

 

Heh, and Brent Venables as your DC...

 

Anyone can steal signs  A great QB will make them pay for it. 

[BigRedBuster]

1 hour ago, Dr. Strangelove said:

but I would push back on the thought that Frost is better. He's had quite a few blue chip transfers and his own issues developing talent, at least on offense. 

Frost has recruited 21 4* recruits.  Only 5 have transferred or not shown up on campus.  One of those 5 was a major contributor before transferring.

 

That is better than what Riley did.  And, I said there was room for improvement.

 

For the most part, the top talent in Frost's classes are still here and contributing.  You couldn't say that about Riley's classes.

 

If my calculations are correct, 28% of Frost's recruits are 4* players.  He's also brought in at least 4 transfers that were previously 4* players coming out of HS.

[Undone]

46 minutes ago, Dr. Strangelove said:

Certainly. Nebraska needs to focus on winning any game, the conference is simply not an attainable goal right now. I agree completely. 

 

My posts are mostly in response to individuals who think having the #20 class is good enough to compete and that it is significantly better than classes ranked 50th. The reality is that it isn't. The talent advantage we have over our division is not hugely significant, as our class is similar in quality to Minnesota and Northwestern and is nowhere near the classes of Texas or North Carolina, spite what a class ranking number would suggest. 

 

I agree with with your overall points and I also think it's important to not let our expectations slowly sink down as a fan base, because then that potentially transfers over (in some way or another) to the win/loss column.

 

But to the bold section of the quote, my main pushback would be Wisconsin & Iowa's programs over the last 10 years. Holy crap. Two teams that take where we're ranked nationally (or slightly worse) and then have Top 15 programs.

 

And just to hammer it home again, Frost isn't exactly giving off the impression that he can emulate what those two programs are doing - again referring to playing above your average national recruiting rankings - as opposed to playing significantly below that mark (like we are now) are roughly right around that point.

[Undone]

29 minutes ago, BigRedBuster said:

If my calculations are correct, 28% of Frost's recruits are 4* players.  He's also brought in at least 4 transfers that were previously 4* players coming out of HS.

 

And I think there was a graphic that was floating around just right before the Ohio State opener last year that showed that, as a metric of sheer sum total of 4 & 5 star recruits, we ranked #4 in the conference. I'm believe the order went Ohio State (obviously), Michigan, Penn State, and then us. So we were ahead of Wisconsin & Iowa.

 

Taking out the potential significant decline that we may or may not have in the 2022 class if it keeps going the way it's been going, Frost has in my opinion recruited well.

 

Where he's really disappointed is in his ability to nail down fundamentals, game preparation, turnovers, & special teams. And if you don't start nailing down those four things you're going to keep on getting your a** kicked by Wisconsin & Iowa, guaranteed.

[FrantzHardySwag]

45 minutes ago, Dr. Strangelove said:

 

The distribution of talent is becoming more and more consolidated, the gaps between Nebraska and Wake Forest narrows while the gaps between Nebraska and Ohio State grows.

 

Dabo was able to win because he found a few key players, but played in a time where it was easier to win with less talent. He had about the same talent as teams ranked in the top 10, so by being a good coach and having good players at key positions, he won! 

 

It is much, much more difficult now. It isn't easy, and Nebraska needs baby steps and a good identity to win. 

Do we disagree? I’m not saying we need to compete with those top 10 teams. It looks like you’re saying we have as much talent as anyone outside those elite recruiters and I agree. We have zero elite recruiters in our division. We are recruiting at a level where we could win our division. If we do that, we can then maybe enter the elite recruiting tier, or at the very least begin to separate ourselves from our division mates. 

[Guy Chamberlin]

The attrition rate at Nebraska reminds me of how the hottest 5 girls in high school reacted to my advances. 

[BigRedBuster]

26 minutes ago, Undone said:

And I think there was a graphic that was floating around just right before the Ohio State opener last year that showed that, as a metric of sheer sum total of 4 & 5 star recruits, we ranked #4 in the conference. I'm believe the order went Ohio State (obviously), Michigan, Penn State, and then us. So we were ahead of Wisconsin & Iowa.

Yes, if I remember right, I read somewhere earlier someone tried saying our recruiting has been worse than many Big Ten teams.  That's just not the case.  In fact, we have been around 4th in the conference and best in the west.

28 minutes ago, Undone said:

Where he's really disappointed is in his ability to nail down fundamentals, game preparation, turnovers, & special teams. And if you don't start nailing down those four things you're going to keep on getting your a** kicked by Wisconsin & Iowa, guaranteed.

Yes, those areas need fixed.  Let's hope that starts this year.

[Dr. Strangelove]

47 minutes ago, BigRedBuster said:

Frost has recruited 21 4* recruits.  Only 5 have transferred or not shown up on campus.  One of those 5 was a major contributor before transferring.

I agree with your overall points, but Frost has lost more than 5 such players.

 

2018: Maurice Washington and Cam'ron Jones

2019: Wan'Dale Robinson, Luke McCaffrey 

2020: Keyshawn Green, Marcus Fleming, Henry Gray, Jaden Francois

 

@Undone, I agree. I think Frost has recruited pretty well up until last year and so far this year. For whatever reason they can't find high school talent to fit skill positions. I'm sure the staff is trying to figure out why this is the case. And, to their credit, they seem to do a really good job at getting Juco and transfer players to work.

 

@FrantzHardySwag we agree. Nebraska should be competing for our division and we should be able to beat Wisconsin more than once per decade. The issues are clearly systemic in our Athletic department, because we shouldn't be getting our butts kicked this badly. My main point was to illustrate that our talent level isn't considerable better than Northwestern or Minnesota. I don't think you're guilty of this, but Nebraska fans in general seem to think that Nebraska is leaps and bounds better than these programs in terms of talent, and my goal was to illustrate that this isn't really the case.

 

 

[Undone]

Just one other minor detail type thought: I personally don't count attrition against a coach's recruiting prowess unless he's just such a disaster that he's running kids out of town left & right.

 

Without putting a name to who's who, from that list of:

 

2018: Maurice Washington and Cam'ron Jones

2019: Wan'Dale Robinson, Luke McCaffrey 

2020: Keyshawn Green, Marcus Fleming, Henry Gray, Jaden Francois

 

you've got one kid who got himself kicked off the team and then at least three that are just flat out quitters. But that doesn't change the fact that the classes Frost has brought in were pretty impressive in the face of the cluster**** disaster that Riley made of the program.

 

Not having Washington & Wan'Dale this season flat out sucks. Would be a very different offensive outlook if those guys were still around & giving 100% heading into this year.

[Decoy73]

6-7 wins plus a bowl victory will give us the momentum we’ve been lacking for a while.  

[BigRedBuster]

14 minutes ago, Dr. Strangelove said:

I agree with your overall points, but Frost has lost more than 5 such players.

 

2018: Maurice Washington and Cam'ron Jones

2019: Wan'Dale Robinson, Luke McCaffrey 

2020: Keyshawn Green, Marcus Fleming, Henry Gray, Jaden Francois

Ahhh...and I forgot to go as far back as the 2018 class.

 

So, he's recruited 27 4* recruits out of 95 total.  That's 28.5% are 4*.  8 have transferred or not made it to campus.

 

Then add in the 4 or 5 transfers that were 4* players out of HS.

 

That's still better than Riley.