the onside kick was stupid

[Mavric]

18 minutes ago, BigRedBuster said:

The only way this isn't an idiotic decision is if Nebraska had noticed that the NW front guys were turning and running before making sure the ball was kicked.  I watched every kickoff before this and the NW guys clearly watched for the kick, then started running.  So.....stupid decision.

 

I wasn't a fan of it at the time and still am not.

 

But I don't think that assessment is quite right.  There was a huge hole on that side.  There was one guy almost all they way to the sideline and one guy who was almost right in the middle of the field.  And the guy who was on the sideline was running backwards at the kick.

 

So I do think there would have been a good chance to get it had it been kicked wider.  No one home and takes longer to cover the 10 yards, thus our guys get there closer to when the ball crosses the 10 yard mark.

[TonkaSker]

It's like hitting a 19 in blackjack. Common sense will scream at you not to do it, but you could still beat the dealer

[Mavric]

4 minutes ago, TonkaSker said:

It's like hitting a 19 in blackjack. Common sense will scream at you not to do it, but you could still beat the dealer

 

I don't have the stats in front of my right now but it was posted over the weekend that surprise onside kicks in college football have succeeded 60% of the time over the last few years.

 

So much better odds than your example.

[TonkaSker]

7 minutes ago, Mavric said:

 

I don't have the stats in front of my right now but it was posted over the weekend that surprise onside kicks in college football have succeeded 60% of the time over the last few years.

 

So much better odds than your example.

 

Interesting, I had no idea it was that successful. 

 

It's obviously not a 1:1 example but when you're up 11 you're taking on a ton of risk you don't need to. 

[knapplc]

17 minutes ago, Mavric said:

 

I don't have the stats in front of my right now but it was posted over the weekend that surprise onside kicks in college football have succeeded 60% of the time over the last few years.

 

So much better odds than your example.

 

You are correct, sir!

- Ed McMahon

 

 

Quote

Over the past 10 seasons, surprise onside kicks—defined as when the kicking team, based on win probability statistics, has a better than 20 percent chance of winning at the time of the kick—are recovered around 60 percent of the time. Expected onside kicks—those that come when a team obviously must resort to an onside kick and the receiving team can plan accordingly—succeed less than 20 percent of the time.

 

SLATE

 

[Undone]

Maybe it's 60% of the time overall, but against these well-coached teams in the B1G? I could be wrong but I'll bet that average is much lower in this conference/doesn't actually get done as much because disciplined special teams play is the norm.

 

I was just like "WTF, man...getting a dedicated special teams coach doesn't mean 'do crazy s*** on special teams.'"

[BigRedBuster]

1 hour ago, Mavric said:

 

I wasn't a fan of it at the time and still am not.

 

But I don't think that assessment is quite right.  There was a huge hole on that side.  There was one guy almost all they way to the sideline and one guy who was almost right in the middle of the field.  And the guy who was on the sideline was running backwards at the kick.

 

So I do think there would have been a good chance to get it had it been kicked wider.  No one home and takes longer to cover the 10 yards, thus our guys get there closer to when the ball crosses the 10 yard mark.

I disagree.  If you look, yes the sideline player takes a few steps down field, but the second level player read it perfectly too.  As Matt says, this is a well coached team.  Unless you see something they are doing wrong you can exploit, you don't do it.

 

 

[Mavric]

Just now, BigRedBuster said:

I disagree.  If you look, yes the sideline player takes a few steps down field, but the second level player read it perfectly too.  As Matt says, this is a well coached team.  Unless you see something they are doing wrong you can exploit, you don't do it.

 

The second-level player may have been doing his job but he's just as far from the recovery spot as our guys are and we are moving at full speed while he is stationary.  If they're counting on the second-level guy to recover it, we should onside kick every time.

[junior4949]

32 minutes ago, Undone said:

Maybe it's 60% of the time overall, but against these well-coached teams in the B1G? I could be wrong but I'll bet that average is much lower in this conference/doesn't actually get done as much because disciplined special teams play is the norm.

 

I was just like "WTF, man...getting a dedicated special teams coach doesn't mean 'do crazy s*** on special teams.'"

 

I would also guess that the average IQ of a Northwestern football player is higher than the average IQ of most other teams.  Northwestern rarely ever makes mistakes and beats themselves because they are well coached and smart dudes.  

[Undone]

I agree with this guy for sure that it's good coaching by Fitzgerald's guys:



And as already stated it's extra bad coaching by Frost to try it on these guys. Just another good example of not adapting to playing football for this conference.

[BigRedBuster]

18 minutes ago, Mavric said:

 

The second-level player may have been doing his job but he's just as far from the recovery spot as our guys are and we are moving at full speed while he is stationary.  If they're counting on the second-level guy to recover it, we should onside kick every time.

They were prepared and ready for it.  We both agree it was stupid.  Unless our staff sees the other team doing something wrong, that would improve our chances, doing it is stupid.

[Mavric]

32 minutes ago, Undone said:

I agree with this guy for sure that it's good coaching by Fitzgerald's guys:

And as already stated it's extra bad coaching by Frost to try it on these guys. Just another good example of not adapting to playing football for this conference.

 

They weren't nearly as prepared for it as he claims they were.

[Undone]

16 minutes ago, Mavric said:

 

They weren't nearly as prepared for it as he claims they were.

 

But I mean it's Northwestern, it's Pat Fitzgerald. You're up by 11, momentum is shifting your way.

[admo]

"I thought if we got it, we could end the game"

 

9:09 left in third quarter... 3RD QUARTER 

 

 

That was his explanation.  I'm taking the man's word for why he chose to do it.  

[admo]

44 yards and 5 plays later its 28-24.

 

Prolly wishes he could have kicked it off normally instead.  Played some defense with that momentum in their favor.  I know the team was pretty pumped up.