Best long term prospects in Big 12 Football

[jayhawk]

The following article is about what I think will happen with programs in the long term over the next 50 years. It does assume the conference will stay intact, that football talent will still come from about the same place and that trends of late are continuing. All of these assumptions may be wrong, but those are what I used. If enough ineptitude is left to run any of the following programs, or vice versa, actual results could vary. My goal was to speak to more permanent features that programs have built, and to look for who has potential to add and who is likely not to maintain those features…

 

Tier 1)

 

1) Texas - This is the school almost every kid in Texas seems to want to go to, and they have oodles of money, fans, tradition and facilities. I do not particularly like their fans, but they have it all.

 

2) Oklahoma - This team is the place that can get top talent under the Longhorns nose. They also get first pick of their own litter. The have enough campus/weather/facilities to do pretty well getting the kids they need, and they probably have the best winning tradition in the Big 12 to sell with their 7 national titles.

 

Tier 2)

 

3) Texas A&M - This place has it all, except they are overshadowed by being in the same state as UT. They have a great setup, as good of fans as anyone, lots of money, access to players, etc. They just can't point to the scoreboard on OU and UT and they are stuck with that. A&M fans are incredible, though. They have money, they give it, and they create an awesome atmosphere. Midnight Yell Practice, for instance, is about as cool as it gets.

 

4) Nebraska - By far the best tradition and fan base in the North. Also, in the state of Nebraska, this is IT. Not as many distractions, one school represents the state, they don't get overshadowed by the pros. Only issue is that they are far from the recruiting fields, the weather, Lincoln is nice but not for everyone (but is nicely situated in the state to be near the people who are the fans), and they don’t have the ludicrous money of UT, but they do pretty well. Like A&M, there are some built in disadvantages, but I would say there is enough strength to view NU as a major future threat, just like they had been in the past.

 

Tier 3)

 

5) Kansas – What is this madman talking about? How can he put his Jayhawks here, sacrilege! Well, KU has always had a top flight Baskeball program and to this day can get any kid in the country to come to Lawrence. The town is nice, and it is 30 minutes from Kansas City. KU had always been good in revenue, but since football started improving, they are closing in on 2nd in funding (just having lost to OSU). If KU can keep a decent product on the field to give people a reason to come, they are not growing to their potential. Large investments have been made in football, and if Mangino stays with us and things keep progressing, KU will be a future force in Football. The story could end a few ways, but the potential is definitely there

 

6) Colorado – They have the prettiest backdrop in the country. Boulder may be full of hippies, but that down is drop dead gorgeous. They are near Denver, they are the best school for about 500 miles in all directions and they have won it all before. On the down side, the worst thing they have is a weak fan base. I guess it is like Southern California, just too many other things to do. Their revenues and attendance both reflect that. Hard to overlook their past success, though, and they do have their advantages.

 

Tier 4)

 

7) Oklahoma State – How can I say that they are not in the tops 2 tiers when they were second in revenue? Well, they are the second team in a small state. I love the resources T-Boone has put behind them, but while they hae some great palyers in their past, they cannot hold a candle to OU. Futhermore, they are really not that close to a major city and I think the odds of them continuing their current revenue, which is based largely on one person, is not really a long term strategy. I just think they are clearly not in the top 3 in the South, and that will catch up to them in the long term. They will have their years, but for the most parts, they will not be considered a consistent power

 

8) Mizzou – They have one HUGE advantage, they are the only major football school in what is easily the second biggest state in the Big 12. Too bad that they share KC with KU and St. Louis with Illinois. They have never been able to be considered a real national power, and while they have had some good teams, they have never shown Columbia can attract top talent. No BCS bowls, no Final Fours, definitely no football national titles. I just do not see that they can be consistently great, just good. They are also not that close to any major city, which seems to help a lot. Mizzou has also not shown me they can raise funds to compete. They have one nice angle, but too many things against them for me to consider them a top threat. I think they are in a great position to be good, but that is about it.

 

Tier 5)

 

9) Texas Tech – Well, they are in Texas, and that helps. There is one problem here, they are in Lubbock Texas. The high point is, they are the ONLY game in town, but that is the low part too. West Texas is not very exciting place, and college football players like exciting. The reason for the crazy schemes is that this is what they need to do to get players. They are at a high point right now, but I do not think this will last too long. They spend less on athletics than any other school in the Big 12 but Iowa State, and that will cost them in the end. I think if they get the right coach (which they have) and a few good players, they can do something, but that is hard to do forever. An uphill fight.

 

10) Baylor – Well, they have been down for a while, and they have a lame off campus stadium. That can be fixed though, and Waco is not that bad, at least it is in a decent part of Texas. They have access to recruits, but they do not have much of an image. I think these guys will be able to field some good teams at times, but when they get down, it is way down. It is hard to rebuild when you have their Big 12 South Schedule to play each year. I think they cannot truly catch the big powers, but they are not truly deserving of the bottom.

 

Tier 6)

 

11) Kansas State – Being the little brother school in the state the size on Kansas is not a good thing. Unlike KU, they are not a national program, they are not near a major city and they have a lot less money. Other than a 15 year stint under Bill, they just do not have much going on. Manhattan is really not the ideal college town, people from there seem to like it, but I am not sure it is the most impressive town to recruit to. So, in summary, not a great town, not near a city, not a lot of money (3rd from the bottom in spending), not much tradition (but at least a little recent success), not near recruits and not great facilities.

 

12) Iowa State – Sorry boys, but you are at the bottom. Smallest budget, smallest stadium, not near recruits and definitely the 2nd school in a small state. The worst part is, this is really more of a Big 10 state, so it is not even in the right conference. Des Moines is not a massive town, so at least ISU is near that and they do have nice fans in spite of their marginal status. I would say that winning the Big 12 Norht is about as much as these guys can hope for, and a lot of other people need to not be doing their jobs for this to happen. I just don’t think wearing USC’s Jerseys is going to fool anyone. Sorry Cy…

[Enhance]

Nice analysis

 

50 years ago this would have been roughly the same way somebody else would have put these teams (except for Kansas, I would assume, since the program hasn't been consistent like what Mangino has done). 50 years from now, I would say your set up will be pretty damn close.

[Spooky Tooth]

The following article is about what I think will happen with programs in the long term over the next 50 years. It does assume the conference will stay intact, that football talent will still come from about the same place and that trends of late are continuing. All of these assumptions may be wrong, but those are what I used. If enough ineptitude is left to run any of the following programs, or vice versa, actual results could vary. My goal was to speak to more permanent features that programs have built, and to look for who has potential to add and who is likely not to maintain those features…

 

Tier 1)

 

1) Texas - This is the school almost every kid in Texas seems to want to go to, and they have oodles of money, fans, tradition and facilities. I do not particularly like their fans, but they have it all.

 

2) Oklahoma - This team is the place that can get top talent under the Longhorns nose. They also get first pick of their own litter. The have enough campus/weather/facilities to do pretty well getting the kids they need, and they probably have the best winning tradition in the Big 12 to sell with their 7 national titles.

 

Tier 2)

 

3) Texas A&M - This place has it all, except they are overshadowed by being in the same state as UT. They have a great setup, as good of fans as anyone, lots of money, access to players, etc. They just can't point to the scoreboard on OU and UT and they are stuck with that. A&M fans are incredible, though. They have money, they give it, and they create an awesome atmosphere. Midnight Yell Practice, for instance, is about as cool as it gets.

 

4) Nebraska - By far the best tradition and fan base in the North. Also, in the state of Nebraska, this is IT. Not as many distractions, one school represents the state, they don't get overshadowed by the pros. Only issue is that they are far from the recruiting fields, the weather, Lincoln is nice but not for everyone (but is nicely situated in the state to be near the people who are the fans), and they don’t have the ludicrous money of UT, but they do pretty well. Like A&M, there are some built in disadvantages, but I would say there is enough strength to view NU as a major future threat, just like they had been in the past.

 

Tier 3)

 

5) Kansas – What is this madman talking about? How can he put his Jayhawks here, sacrilege! Well, KU has always had a top flight Baskeball program and to this day can get any kid in the country to come to Lawrence. The town is nice, and it is 30 minutes from Kansas City. KU had always been good in revenue, but since football started improving, they are closing in on 2nd in funding (just having lost to OSU). If KU can keep a decent product on the field to give people a reason to come, they are not growing to their potential. Large investments have been made in football, and if Mangino stays with us and things keep progressing, KU will be a future force in Football. The story could end a few ways, but the potential is definitely there

 

6) Colorado – They have the prettiest backdrop in the country. Boulder may be full of hippies, but that down is drop dead gorgeous. They are near Denver, they are the best school for about 500 miles in all directions and they have won it all before. On the down side, the worst thing they have is a weak fan base. I guess it is like Southern California, just too many other things to do. Their revenues and attendance both reflect that. Hard to overlook their past success, though, and they do have their advantages.

 

Tier 4)

 

7) Oklahoma State – How can I say that they are not in the tops 2 tiers when they were second in revenue? Well, they are the second team in a small state. I love the resources T-Boone has put behind them, but while they hae some great palyers in their past, they cannot hold a candle to OU. Futhermore, they are really not that close to a major city and I think the odds of them continuing their current revenue, which is based largely on one person, is not really a long term strategy. I just think they are clearly not in the top 3 in the South, and that will catch up to them in the long term. They will have their years, but for the most parts, they will not be considered a consistent power

 

8) Mizzou – They have one HUGE advantage, they are the only major football school in what is easily the second biggest state in the Big 12. Too bad that they share KC with KU and St. Louis with Illinois. They have never been able to be considered a real national power, and while they have had some good teams, they have never shown Columbia can attract top talent. No BCS bowls, no Final Fours, definitely no football national titles. I just do not see that they can be consistently great, just good. They are also not that close to any major city, which seems to help a lot. Mizzou has also not shown me they can raise funds to compete. They have one nice angle, but too many things against them for me to consider them a top threat. I think they are in a great position to be good, but that is about it.

 

Tier 5)

 

9) Texas Tech – Well, they are in Texas, and that helps. There is one problem here, they are in Lubbock Texas. The high point is, they are the ONLY game in town, but that is the low part too. West Texas is not very exciting place, and college football players like exciting. The reason for the crazy schemes is that this is what they need to do to get players. They are at a high point right now, but I do not think this will last too long. They spend less on athletics than any other school in the Big 12 but Iowa State, and that will cost them in the end. I think if they get the right coach (which they have) and a few good players, they can do something, but that is hard to do forever. An uphill fight.

 

10) Baylor – Well, they have been down for a while, and they have a lame off campus stadium. That can be fixed though, and Waco is not that bad, at least it is in a decent part of Texas. They have access to recruits, but they do not have much of an image. I think these guys will be able to field some good teams at times, but when they get down, it is way down. It is hard to rebuild when you have their Big 12 South Schedule to play each year. I think they cannot truly catch the big powers, but they are not truly deserving of the bottom.

 

Tier 6)

 

11) Kansas State – Being the little brother school in the state the size on Kansas is not a good thing. Unlike KU, they are not a national program, they are not near a major city and they have a lot less money. Other than a 15 year stint under Bill, they just do not have much going on. Manhattan is really not the ideal college town, people from there seem to like it, but I am not sure it is the most impressive town to recruit to. So, in summary, not a great town, not near a city, not a lot of money (3rd from the bottom in spending), not much tradition (but at least a little recent success), not near recruits and not great facilities.

 

12) Iowa State – Sorry boys, but you are at the bottom. Smallest budget, smallest stadium, not near recruits and definitely the 2nd school in a small state. The worst part is, this is really more of a Big 10 state, so it is not even in the right conference. Des Moines is not a massive town, so at least ISU is near that and they do have nice fans in spite of their marginal status. I would say that winning the Big 12 Norht is about as much as these guys can hope for, and a lot of other people need to not be doing their jobs for this to happen. I just don’t think wearing USC’s Jerseys is going to fool anyone. Sorry Cy…

 

 

 

Provocative stuff, Hawk. 50 years means its anyone's guess, but it's fun to speculate. I would imagine that in 50 years the NCAA will be finishing its investigation of USC.

[redout22]

K-State should be last

[husker B-rent]

K-State should be last

 

agreed, ISU has a better history for the most part.....

[jayhawk]

Let them settle it in Arrowhead, at FARMAGGEDON!!!!

[carlfense]

Good topic!

 

I think my list would look like this . . .

 

1-2. Texas, Oklahoma (obviously)

 

3-5. Nebraska, OSU, aTm. (Nebraska has the support and winning history...OSU and aTm haven't shown that they can actually get it done on the field although they seem to get good athletes and ridiculous amounts of financial support)

 

6. Missouri (very close to 3-5, maybe should be lumped in with them as well, I think it was Osborne who referred to them as a "sleeping giant.")

 

7. Texas Tech (interesting to see where they end up without Leach)

 

8. Colorado (has been there and done that...but it was 19 years ago)

 

9-10. Baylor (losing tradition, improving facilities and coaching), Kansas (I see Kansas as similar to Texas Tech without the recruiting advantage of being in Texas. How good will they be without Mangino?)

 

11-12. Iowa State, Kansas State

[huskerjack23]

i heard something about UT enacting a more strict academic policy for athletics. am i offbase here?

 

if it's true, that would dampen their stranglehold on the conference.

[carlfense]

i heard something about UT enacting a more strict academic policy for athletics. am i offbase here?

 

if it's true, that would dampen their stranglehold on the conference.

 

I believe you are referring to the Texas state law that requires that Texas public colleges admit all students with a certain GPA, test score, or class rank. UT officials worried that they couldn't admit all of these students and still have room for scholarship athletes.

 

I'd expect the law to be changed far before it has any impact on UT football.

[jayhawk]

Good topic!

 

I think my list would look like this . . .

 

1-2. Texas, Oklahoma (obviously)

 

3-5. Nebraska, OSU, aTm. (Nebraska has the support and winning history...OSU and aTm haven't shown that they can actually get it done on the field although they seem to get good athletes and ridiculous amounts of financial support)

 

6. Missouri (very close to 3-5, maybe should be lumped in with them as well, I think it was Osborne who referred to them as a "sleeping giant.")

 

7. Texas Tech (interesting to see where they end up without Leach)

 

8. Colorado (has been there and done that...but it was 19 years ago)

 

9-10. Baylor (losing tradition, improving facilities and coaching), Kansas (I see Kansas as similar to Texas Tech without the recruiting advantage of being in Texas. How good will they be without Mangino?)

 

11-12. Iowa State, Kansas State

 

I think tying anything to a specific coach is not so valid for a 50 year span. I agree KU's shorter term Question is can they maintain beyond Mangino, but that is key for us because we need to keep building momentum, as we have a lot of untapped resources. I would argue Mike Leach is the same as Mangino, but he is in Lubbock, where the upside is fully been realized for that program...

[carlfense]

Good topic!

 

I think my list would look like this . . .

 

1-2. Texas, Oklahoma (obviously)

 

3-5. Nebraska, OSU, aTm. (Nebraska has the support and winning history...OSU and aTm haven't shown that they can actually get it done on the field although they seem to get good athletes and ridiculous amounts of financial support)

 

6. Missouri (very close to 3-5, maybe should be lumped in with them as well, I think it was Osborne who referred to them as a "sleeping giant.")

 

7. Texas Tech (interesting to see where they end up without Leach)

 

8. Colorado (has been there and done that...but it was 19 years ago)

 

9-10. Baylor (losing tradition, improving facilities and coaching), Kansas (I see Kansas as similar to Texas Tech without the recruiting advantage of being in Texas. How good will they be without Mangino?)

 

11-12. Iowa State, Kansas State

 

I think tying anything to a specific coach is not so valid for a 50 year span. I agree KU's shorter term Question is can they maintain beyond Mangino, but that is key for us because we need to keep building momentum, as we have a lot of untapped resources. I would argue Mike Leach is the same as Mangino, but he is in Lubbock, where the upside is fully been realized for that program...

 

Agreed. That's why I have questions about both programs. Will they continue improving? Or will a coaching change cause a precipitous slide?

[Ohio Pete]

I think tying anything to a specific coach is not so valid for a 50 year span. I agree KU's shorter term Question is can they maintain beyond Mangino, but that is key for us because we need to keep building momentum, as we have a lot of untapped resources. I would argue Mike Leach is the same as Mangino, but he is in Lubbock, where the upside is fully been realized for that program...

This would be the key differentiating factor. Lubbock is in the middle of nowhere. Go back to all the sports writers covering that big game with Texas. Every article mentioned the issues with getting there. Lawrence is almost a suburb of Kansas City. I think this makes a difference over the course of time.

[Cy the Cyclone]

Ha! According to articles I have read just about every school in the Big 12 is going to be under about 50 feet of water when the Great Nebraska Sea fills up again within 50 years...with the exception of Iowa State, Colorado and Mizzou (and when the New Madrid fault line lets go down there in Missouri, Columbia will be nothing but a hole in the ground anyway...like there's a difference from what it is now) So...Iowa State and Colorado will be the only two teams left in the Big 12 and since Colorado climate is not conducsive to growing quality weed, everyone in Boulder will migrate to California, leaving CU virtually deserted....and I'll finally be living on beachfront property!

 

Hurray for Al Gore and Global Warming!!!!

 

By the way, I find it quite amusing how your state is the only of the entire union that ends with the sound "ass"...actually it starts with the sound "can" which is basically slang for "ass"...

 

Coincidence? I think not....

[Scarlet Overkill]

So, let's go back in time, shall we? What would the analysis have looked like 10 or 15 years ago? While this is a decent analysis of the current landscape, no one can predict anything even 5 years from now, let alone 50.

 

My prediction is that global warming will eventually make anything south of Nebraska too unbearable to live. Mass migrations of people will come and thrive. Nebraska will be the place to live and play football year round, and will have 20 commits a week after signing day.

 

Yeah, that's the ticket!!

[HuskerInLostWages]

By the way, I find it quite amusing how your state is the only of the entire union that ends with the sound "ass"...actually it starts with the sound "can" which is basically slang for "ass"...

 

Coincidence? I think not....

 

Cy you made me shoot coffee through the nose, you owe me a new keyboard.