Excel Posted December 18, 2011 Share Posted December 18, 2011 (edited) I did this for the Big Ten Championship game and it gave me a pretty good feel for that game so I figured I'd do it for this one as well. I present to you another Badgerfan breakdown... Information What: The 66th Capital One Bowl (previously known as Tangerine and Florida Citrus bowls) Who: The University of Nebraska Cornhuskers at the University of South Carolina Gamecocks Location: Citrus Bowl, Orlando Florida. Capacity 70,000. Date & Time: 12PM CST, Monday, 2 January 2012. Weather: Average High 72° F, Average Low 51° F. Broadcast Info: Televised on ESPN Nebraska Radio Network South Carolina Radio Network Website: Official Facebook Twitter Tickets: Official NU USC Distance to OrlandoFrom Columbia: 377 miles From Lincoln: 1209 miles [*]Last year's game: Alabama at Michigan State. Alabama won 49-7. [*]Last meeting between these teams: 3 October 1987 in Lincoln, NE. Gamecocks 21 - Huskers 30* [*]All time record between teams: Three meetings: 1987, 1986 and 1964. Nebraska won all three games.* [*]Players to watch South Carolina- QB Connor Shaw, WR Alshon Jeffery, WR Bruce Ellington, DE Melvin Ingram, CB Stephon Gilmore, DE Jadeveon Clowney Nebraska- QB Taylor Martinez, RB Rex Burkhead, WR Kenny Bell, RB Ameer Abdullah, LB Lavonte David, CB Alfonzo Dennard, K/P Brett Maher SEE NOTE TWO [*]Spread: South Carolina favored by 2* [*]Last Capital One Bowl Appearance Gamecocks: 1975 (lost to Miami, OH) Huskers: 1991 (lost to GT) Both teams are 0-1 in this bowl oddly enough [*]Unit Rankings Offense Gamecocks: 74th Overall Nationally, 375.4 ypg. Passing: 97th, 177.4 ypg. Rushing: 26th, 198.0 ypg. PPG: 45th, 30.1 pg. Huskers: 59th Overall Nationally, 390.5 ypg. Passing: 103rd, 166.6 ypg. Rushing: 13th 223.9 ypg. PPG: 43rd, 30.5 pg. [*]Unit Ranking Defense Gamecocks: 4th Overall Nationally, 268.9 ypg. Passing: 2nd, 133 ypg. Rushing: 45th, 135.91 ypg. PPG: 13th, 18.8 pg. Huskers: 36th Overall Nationally, 350.7 ypg. Passing: 17th, 189.08ypg. Rushing: 66th, 161.91 ypg. PPG: 39th, 22.8 pg. [*]Takeaways InterceptionsUSC - 18 NU - 10 [*]Fumbles USC - 12 NU - 8 [*]Coaches Gamecocks: Steve Spurrier22nd year Overall, 7th at USC. 196-75-2 Overall, 54-35 at USC. (.717, .604) Bowl Record: 7-10, 1-4 at USC Accomplishments: 1 National Championship, 6 Conference Championships, 9 Division Titles. [*]Huskers: Bo Pelini (4th year) 4th year Overall, all 4 at NU 39-15 (.722) Bowl Record: 3-1 Accomplishments: 3 Division Titles [*]Human Anatomy: The human head weighs 8 pounds. [*]Injuries and losses: Gamecocks:RB Marcus Lattimore, QB Stephen Garcia[*]Huskers: SEE NOTE TWO DT Jared Crick, Possibles: TE Ben Cotton, C Mike Caputo [*]Rankings Gamecocks: AP 10, Coaches 9, BCS 9 Huskers: AP 21, Coaches 20, BCS 20 [*]Strength of Schedules Sagarin Rankings USC - 33rd (73.13) NU - 30th (73.37 [*]Opponents Overall Records USC- 75-58 (.563) NU- 81-54 (.600) [*]Breakdown of Schedules USC 10-2 (6-2) NU 9-3 (5-3) Marquee Wins USC: @Georgia, vs. Clemson NU: vs Ohio State, vs. Michigan State [*]Bad Losses USC: @Arkansas (loss by 16) NU: @Wisconsin (loss by 31) @ Michigan (loss by 28) [*]The "What the heck happened!?!" Loss USC: Loss by 3 to visiting 7-5 Auburn. NU: Loss by 3 to visiting 6-6 Northwestern. [*]Record against end of year ranked opponents: USC: 2-2 (Wins against #16 UGA and #15 Clemson, Losses to #25 Auburn and #6 Arkansas) NU: 2-2 (Wins against #17 MSU and #22 PSU, Losses to #10 UW and #13 UM) [*]Average Margin of Victory USC 15.4 NU 17.1 [*]Average Margin of Loss USC 9.5 NU 20.6 [*]Close Losses (Within 7) USC: One v. Auburn (by 3) Best case scenario: 11-1 NU: One v. Northwestern (by 3) Best case scenario: 10-2 [*]Close Wins USC: Four v. Florida, UGA, Navy and Miss. St. Worst Case Scenario: 6-6 NU: Two v. Ohio State and Penn State. Worst Case Scenario: 7-5 [*]Select skill position numbers QB USC: Shaw (So, 6'1", 204lbs, 4.53sec) PASSING - 12 TD's, 6 INT's, 65.5% comp, 1218 yards, 135 ypg. RUSHING - 483 yards, 7 TD's, 4.2 ypr, 53.7 ypg. Best Game: v. UK, 4TD's 311 yards Worst Game: v. UF. No TD's, 1 INT, 81 yds. 50% comp. NU: Martinez (So, 6'1", 200lbs, 4.47sec) PASSING- 12 TD's, 7 INT's, 55.9% comp, 1973 yards, 164 ypg. RUSHING - 837 yards, 9 TD's, 4.9 ypr, 69.8 ypg. Best Game: W1 v. Chat. 116yds Passing, 0 TD's 135 yds Rushing 3TD's Worst Game: @ UW, 3 INT's no TD's passing. 50% comp or @ UM 39.1% comp and 122 yards. [*]RB USC: Wilds (Fr, 6'0", 217lbs, 4.5sec) 486 yards, 3 TD's, 4.5 ypc, 54 ypg NU: Burkhead (Jr, 5'11", 210, 4.46) 1268 yards, 15 TD's, 4.9ypc, 105.7ypg [*]WR USC: Jeffery (Jr, 6'4", 229lbs, 4.5sec) 614 yards, 7 TD's, 13.6 ypc, 51.2 ypg. NU: Bell (Fr, 6'1", 180lbs, 4.45sec) 408 yards, 2 TD's, 14.1 ypc, 37.1 ypg. [*]Select Defensive Leaders USCDE Jadeveon Clowney- 33 Tackles, 2 FF's 6 Sacks, 6 TFL DE Melvin Ingram- 44 Tackles, 8.5 Sacks, 12 TFL LB Antonio Allen- 82 Tackles, 4 FF's, 3 INT's CB Stephon Gilmore- 41 Tackles, 1 Sack, 3 INT's CB CC Whiltock- 15 Tackles, 3 INT's S DJ Swearinger- 73 Tackles, 3 INT's [*]NU LB Lavonte David- 112 Tackles, 3.5 sacks, 2 INT's CB Alfonzo Dennard - 27 Tackles S Austin Cassidy- 59 Tackles, 2 INT's SEE NOTE TWO [*]Motivation USC - Getting motivated for bowl games has been an issue in the past with players often checking out and not trying or feeling disgruntled with the quality of the bowl. This game looks to be different but we'll see. The team needs to recover from a long bowl win drought. Fan base split between being angry about missing out on Atlanta despite having beat every team in the East and happy about missing out on having to play LSU, either way they feel they have something to prove this year. Nebraska- SEE NOTE TWO Note One - Full disclosure, I'm a Wisconsin native and fan but I am also a USC grad. Now that that is out there it shouldn't matter much because most of this is just raw stats but if you see something you question there's your answer. I AM biased. I admit it, I want the Gamecocks to beat Nebraska. Anything that is not pure numbers and stats is my opinion. Take it at that. Note Two- I am not as familiar with Husker football as you guys are. I put this in places where I'm ignorant of your situation and would like to difer to your opinions, but feel free to chime in on other areas as well. Edited December 18, 2011 by Badgerfan 3 Quote Link to comment
Danimal Posted December 18, 2011 Share Posted December 18, 2011 SC has been playing better ball but we've been a better bowl team Our crappy, didn't-want-to-be-there performance last season has been SC's typical bowl performance. Even in that game Bo's D showed-up. The D has held their own in each of Bo's bowls, I think they'll hold their own in this one too. Question is whether the O can avoid the turnovers, penalties, and drops that killed us in our three losses. Quote Link to comment
roundegotrip Posted December 18, 2011 Share Posted December 18, 2011 Another awesome post. Badgerfan is bringing it today. Regarding the note on "players to watch" and "injuries and losses", Jared Crick as been out for the season since the Ohio St. game with a torn pectoral. Personally, I would replace him with Brett Maher, as field position and field goal conversions could be big factors in the outcome of this game. Maher has been great as a place kicker all year, but has been slightly inconsistent as a punter late in the season. A big game from him could put Nebraska over the top. Also, there is a very real possibility (at least, it's still just a possibility as far as I know) that the Huskers could be without starting C and senior Mike Caputo for the game. Finally, starting TE Ben Cotton appears to be questionable for the game as he continues to recover. Quote Link to comment
corncraze Posted December 18, 2011 Share Posted December 18, 2011 Quick things to edit. Martinez is a Sophomore, not Junior. Alfonso Dennard is way more of a defensive leader than Austin Cassidy. Other than that, from what I saw at least, nice work! Quote Link to comment
Nhusker23 Posted December 18, 2011 Share Posted December 18, 2011 Pelini is actually 4-1 in bowls if you count the 2003 Alamo Bowl where he was interim head coach (W 17-3 over MSU). Quote Link to comment
The Dude Posted December 18, 2011 Share Posted December 18, 2011 The human head weighs 8 pounds. 1 Quote Link to comment
robsker Posted December 18, 2011 Share Posted December 18, 2011 I do not know what the spread for this game is, or will be come kickoff time... but I surmise that USC will be rather heavily favored. Of those in the media who have given their impartial predictions, all of them favor USC and several see the game as one that will not be overly contested. Here, of course, good wishes and projecting onto this team (NU) what we want them to be (rather than what they are) --- the very thing that fans tend normally to do --- will lead to a poll whereby more think NU will win than not. But... we in this poll are hardly impartial! FWIW, like several of my colleagues on this board, I fall into the camp that says if the Huskers can play w/in a couple of touchdowns of USC that they would be doing pretty well. I hope that a Wisconsin/Michigan type blowout does not occur. It very well might. But anything can happen. Once more, which NU team shows up? Will it be the one that shows up 75% of the time, the unfocused, under-prepared, flat team that plays 2 - 2.5 quarters and cannot make adjustments? Or will it be the one that shows up 25% of the time that plays fairly tough, focused football? If it is the former, a blowout loss is likely. If it is the latter... and we get lucky and USC is flat.... then we have a shot. If USC is not flat, then even if a focused NU shows up, USC will win. Unless there are some turnovers and breaks that we catch. So... hope for one of the latter scenarios. Go Big Red. Quote Link to comment
Excel Posted December 18, 2011 Author Share Posted December 18, 2011 I've edited it to reflect your corrections.... Nhusker23 - I actually accounted for Pelini's 2003 Alamo Bowl victory in my original post. With that win and wins in the 2008 Gator Bowl and 2009 Holiday Bowl as well as a loss in the 2010 Holiday Bowl Bo is 3-1. Robsker - The spreads I've seen are usually favoring USC by a pretty slim margin, 2 or 3 at most. http://www.vegasinsi...odds/las-vegas/ http://www.docsports...tball-odds.html http://www.thespread...ll-betting-odds Quote Link to comment
NUance Posted December 18, 2011 Share Posted December 18, 2011 I do not know what the spread for this game is, or will be come kickoff time... but I surmise that USC will be rather heavily favored. Of those in the media who have given their impartial predictions, all of them favor USC and several see the game as one that will not be overly contested. Here, of course, good wishes and projecting onto this team (NU) what we want them to be (rather than what they are) --- the very thing that fans tend normally to do --- will lead to a poll whereby more think NU will win than not. But... we in this poll are hardly impartial! FWIW, like several of my colleagues on this board, I fall into the camp that says if the Huskers can play w/in a couple of touchdowns of USC that they would be doing pretty well. I hope that a Wisconsin/Michigan type blowout does not occur. It very well might. But anything can happen. Once more, which NU team shows up? Will it be the one that shows up 75% of the time, the unfocused, under-prepared, flat team that plays 2 - 2.5 quarters and cannot make adjustments? Or will it be the one that shows up 25% of the time that plays fairly tough, focused football? If it is the former, a blowout loss is likely. If it is the latter... and we get lucky and USC is flat.... then we have a shot. If USC is not flat, then even if a focused NU shows up, USC will win. Unless there are some turnovers and breaks that we catch. So... hope for one of the latter scenarios. Go Big Red. South Carolina (-2.5) LINK No way to know which way it will move by kickoff. Quote Link to comment
Comish Posted December 18, 2011 Share Posted December 18, 2011 I do not know what the spread for this game is, or will be come kickoff time... but I surmise that USC will be rather heavily favored. Of those in the media who have given their impartial predictions, all of them favor USC and several see the game as one that will not be overly contested. Here, of course, good wishes and projecting onto this team (NU) what we want them to be (rather than what they are) --- the very thing that fans tend normally to do --- will lead to a poll whereby more think NU will win than not. But... we in this poll are hardly impartial! FWIW, like several of my colleagues on this board, I fall into the camp that says if the Huskers can play w/in a couple of touchdowns of USC that they would be doing pretty well. I hope that a Wisconsin/Michigan type blowout does not occur. It very well might. But anything can happen. Once more, which NU team shows up? Will it be the one that shows up 75% of the time, the unfocused, under-prepared, flat team that plays 2 - 2.5 quarters and cannot make adjustments? Or will it be the one that shows up 25% of the time that plays fairly tough, focused football? If it is the former, a blowout loss is likely. If it is the latter... and we get lucky and USC is flat.... then we have a shot. If USC is not flat, then even if a focused NU shows up, USC will win. Unless there are some turnovers and breaks that we catch. So... hope for one of the latter scenarios. Go Big Red. Gotta disagree here. This is not a true road game. We will be focused and ready. And, while we may or may not win, it will be close and will NOT be a blowout. Quote Link to comment
In the Deed the Glory Posted December 18, 2011 Share Posted December 18, 2011 Not trying to nitpick, but you seem like the kind of person that strives for perfection. It is Lavonte, not Levonte. Quote Link to comment
Excel Posted December 18, 2011 Author Share Posted December 18, 2011 What are some other stats and comparisons that would be good to look at for this game? I can think of a few... NU vs. Mobile QB's USC vs. top 70 offenses and offenses that run a derivation of the option. Connor Shaw vs. top 50 offenses.... Bo Pelini's defenses against Spurrier's USC teams. Quote Link to comment
huKSer Posted December 18, 2011 Share Posted December 18, 2011 NU is 7-0 against $EC in bowl games * Heard that we lost one to Auburn but my memory has a 4 year black out for some reason Quote Link to comment
Husker from Kansas Posted December 18, 2011 Share Posted December 18, 2011 this thread makes me kinda miss cy the cyclones predictions! Quote Link to comment
Hunter94 Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 I do not know what the spread for this game is, or will be come kickoff time... but I surmise that USC will be rather heavily favored. Of those in the media who have given their impartial predictions, all of them favor USC and several see the game as one that will not be overly contested. Here, of course, good wishes and projecting onto this team (NU) what we want them to be (rather than what they are) --- the very thing that fans tend normally to do --- will lead to a poll whereby more think NU will win than not. But... we in this poll are hardly impartial! FWIW, like several of my colleagues on this board, I fall into the camp that says if the Huskers can play w/in a couple of touchdowns of USC that they would be doing pretty well. I hope that a Wisconsin/Michigan type blowout does not occur. It very well might. But anything can happen. Once more, which NU team shows up? Will it be the one that shows up 75% of the time, the unfocused, under-prepared, flat team that plays 2 - 2.5 quarters and cannot make adjustments? Or will it be the one that shows up 25% of the time that plays fairly tough, focused football? If it is the former, a blowout loss is likely. If it is the latter... and we get lucky and USC is flat.... then we have a shot. If USC is not flat, then even if a focused NU shows up, USC will win. Unless there are some turnovers and breaks that we catch. So... hope for one of the latter scenarios. Go Big Red. hmmmmmmmm.........snowball's chance, eh? pretty good assessment, unfortunately. Quote Link to comment
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