2012 Forecast

['SkersRule]

Taking a very early look at the 2012 schedule here's how I forsee it going. Please note that I have done zero research and I'm just going off of what I remember from last season and projecting towards '12.

 

Southern Miss...Win--95% probability. The Golden Eagles looked very impressive in their drubbing of Houston in the bowl game. But the Eagles lost their head coach to another team, their starting QB to graduation, along with a host of other players who had started for several seasons. In short, So Miss will essentially be starting over from scratch.

 

@ UCLA...Win--90% probability. New coach, new system and more than likely it will be a pro-style. Which plays right into the kind of defense Nebraska likes to play, meaning rush the front four, drop seven into coverage and play a match-up zone. The questions I have are, how will Devin Fuller be used, will he redshirt, or will new head coach Jim Mora roll the dice and play a true freshman? If I were Mora, I'd design an offense around what Fuller can do and take the lumps with a true freshman starting at QB.

 

Arkansas St...W--99.999999999999% probability. The only way the Red Wolves win, or even have a shot, is if Nebraska has another -8 turnover day like they did against Iowa State a couple of years ago.

 

Idaho St...W--99.999999999999% probability. See Ark st.

 

Wisconsin...W--50% probability. There are two upsides, 1) the game is in Lincoln and 2) no more Russell Wilson. Even still this will be a tough physical game for the Huskers. One thing is certain though Nebraska's DL and indeed whole defense will have to step up big time in the tough and physical department.

 

@ Ohio St...L--60% probability. On the road, versus a shifty, agile, mobile, QB and a defense that well, quite frankly, gets embarrassed too frequently by mobile QBs. If Nebraska can contain Braxton Miller and avoid turnovers they can pull it out, but it will be an intense uphill climb.

 

@ Northwestern...L--50% probability. The biggest question I have is will Nebraska actually take the Wildcats seriously this time around? Sadly, I doubt it. And while Northwestern loses a lot of people their biggest difference maker, Cain Kolter, returns.

 

Michigan...L--75% probability. Unless Bo changes or tweaks his defensive philosophy, this is another probable loss. I hate to harp on it but look at the way Michigan State played Michigan and then contrast it with the way the Huskers played the Wolverines. The Spartans blitzed and pressured Robinson and the Huskers played a soft coverage. Well the results of those two games are a stark reminder of why I do not really like Nebraska's chances here.

 

@ Michigan St...W--75% probability. Kirk Cousins, their two top WRs, and one RB are gone so there will be some retooling. This is another on the road dangerous game that if Nebraska doesn't take seriously they could lose.

 

Penn St...W--85% probability. This is a program in shambles. The new head coach for the Lions has his work cut out for him to say the least. This could be an ugly year for them.

 

Minnestoa...W--96% probability. The Gophers just don't have the personnel to compete.

 

@ Iowa...W--65% probability. Nebraska typically doesn't struggle against Iowa the way other Big 10 teams do, although now that we're in the Big 10 there will be much more familarity as we'll play every season. But for now, the Huskers have the edge.

 

Best case scenario: Undefeated season with a conference and national title as well.

 

 

Okay, now that the laughter has subsided, I think the best case scenario for '12 is a 10-2 regular season. I see Nebraska more than likely losing to Michigan and Ohio State. I think that Nebraska loses due to how Bo plays his defensive scheme not because I think the Huskers aren't talented enough to compete or win.

 

Worst case, and this could get real ugly real fast, Nebraska loses to Ohio State, Michigan, Wisconsin, Northwestern, Michigan State, and Iowa and tanks to 6-6.

 

I'll sort of split the difference and say 9-3 in the regualr season with losses to MU, OSU and some unranked team at home.

 

What say you my fellow revelers of the Red?

[Excel]

No No No. This is completely wrong. You gave the Gophers 4%....

[strigori]

I agree with a number of your thoughts. A couple others I differ somewhat,

 

UCLA scares me. Yeah they have a new coach, but they have had some good recruiting classes and have some athletes. If Mora and his assistants(and honestly his assistant hires are more impressive than ours have been) we could be in trouble with a defense that could have some issues, especcialy this early in a season. 60% game.

 

And Mich State I think beats us. Yeah, they lost a lot on offense, but they might have the best defense in the conference. Unless we see some huge strides at QB for the Huskers I see the game as a defensive struggle. 40% at best.

 

10-2 might be an optimistic cealing, 9-3 probably more likely for the best they can do. And 8-4 or 7-5 are really possibilities, and a nightmare scenario with 5-7 if Rex goes down.

[husker_99]

Taking a very early look at the 2012 schedule here's how I forsee it going. Please note that I have done zero research and I'm just going off of what I remember from last season and projecting towards '12.

 

Southern Miss...Win--95% probability. The Golden Eagles looked very impressive in their drubbing of Houston in the bowl game. But the Eagles lost their head coach to another team, their starting QB to graduation, along with a host of other players who had started for several seasons. In short, So Miss will essentially be starting over from scratch.

 

@ UCLA...Win--90% probability. New coach, new system and more than likely it will be a pro-style. Which plays right into the kind of defense Nebraska likes to play, meaning rush the front four, drop seven into coverage and play a match-up zone. The questions I have are, how will Devin Fuller be used, will he redshirt, or will new head coach Jim Mora roll the dice and play a true freshman? If I were Mora, I'd design an offense around what Fuller can do and take the lumps with a true freshman starting at QB.

 

Arkansas St...W--99.999999999999% probability. The only way the Red Wolves win, or even have a shot, is if Nebraska has another -8 turnover day like they did against Iowa State a couple of years ago.

 

Idaho St...W--99.999999999999% probability. See Ark st.

 

Wisconsin...W--50% probability. There are two upsides, 1) the game is in Lincoln and 2) no more Russell Wilson. Even still this will be a tough physical game for the Huskers. One thing is certain though Nebraska's DL and indeed whole defense will have to step up big time in the tough and physical department.

 

@ Ohio St...L--60% probability. On the road, versus a shifty, agile, mobile, QB and a defense that well, quite frankly, gets embarrassed too frequently by mobile QBs. If Nebraska can contain Braxton Miller and avoid turnovers they can pull it out, but it will be an intense uphill climb.

 

@ Northwestern...L--50% probability. The biggest question I have is will Nebraska actually take the Wildcats seriously this time around? Sadly, I doubt it. And while Northwestern loses a lot of people their biggest difference maker, Cain Kolter, returns.

 

Michigan...L--75% probability. Unless Bo changes or tweaks his defensive philosophy, this is another probable loss. I hate to harp on it but look at the way Michigan State played Michigan and then contrast it with the way the Huskers played the Wolverines. The Spartans blitzed and pressured Robinson and the Huskers played a soft coverage. Well the results of those two games are a stark reminder of why I do not really like Nebraska's chances here.

 

@ Michigan St...W--75% probability. Kirk Cousins, their two top WRs, and one RB are gone so there will be some retooling. This is another on the road dangerous game that if Nebraska doesn't take seriously they could lose.

 

Penn St...W--85% probability. This is a program in shambles. The new head coach for the Lions has his work cut out for him to say the least. This could be an ugly year for them.

 

Minnestoa...W--96% probability. The Gophers just don't have the personnel to compete.

 

@ Iowa...W--65% probability. Nebraska typically doesn't struggle against Iowa the way other Big 10 teams do, although now that we're in the Big 10 there will be much more familarity as we'll play every season. But for now, the Huskers have the edge.

 

Best case scenario: Undefeated season with a conference and national title as well.

 

 

Okay, now that the laughter has subsided, I think the best case scenario for '12 is a 10-2 regular season. I see Nebraska more than likely losing to Michigan and Ohio State. I think that Nebraska loses due to how Bo plays his defensive scheme not because I think the Huskers aren't talented enough to compete or win.

 

Worst case, and this could get real ugly real fast, Nebraska loses to Ohio State, Michigan, Wisconsin, Northwestern, Michigan State, and Iowa and tanks to 6-6.

 

I'll sort of split the difference and say 9-3 in the regualr season with losses to MU, OSU and some unranked team at home.

 

What say you my fellow revelers of the Red?

 

Depends on how well the defense progresses and if Martinez improves. If he doesn't improve need to give the backup a shot just to motivate Martinez to get better.

[JoeHuskers!]

Southern Miss didnt play Houston in their bowl game, they played Houston in their conference championship game, Houston played Penn St in the Bowl... cant remember who So. Miss played, but So. Miss won

 

 

just sayin

[chamrocck]

Some buzz around UCLA in SoCal. This could be a very good game. Bruin fans are hungry to be relevant and the expectation is that Mora has to be better than Neuheisal and they have had too many good recruits to continue to be bad. I expect their QB to be Brett Hundley who every UCLA fan I know is pretty high on (that is why I was so surprised Fuller picked UCLA as he will potentially sit behind Hundley for very long if Hundley plays like UCLA fans expect him to). This is one of those games where if we don't bring pressure we are going to make a new QB look very good. In my opinion this game will be won or lost with the defense we bring to it.

 

I don't see how we beat Michigan next year. Ohio State will also be a very tall order. I'm chalking both these games up as L's.

 

I am expecting a similar season to last year for this team.

[corncraze]

We will not lose to Northwestern twice in a row. Period.

[Excel]

To echo craze....Northwestern gets its big wins by surprising teams, you should have it much easier in 2012. The probability that you lose that game increases with every year after you win though...

 

I agree with the UCLA prediction...I just don't think they get it together that early. Also, both southern miss and Arkansas state aren't you're typical mid majors, you'll still win but I think one of them may put up a fight, probably Malzahns Arky State more than Miss since they'll be on their way down big time with Fedoras departure.

 

Iowas a tough trip for many teams, don't ask me why but Kinnick gets people, I think NU will be included in that group.

 

I don't think Wisconsins a straight up toss up. Unless something presents itself between now and then we will probably lose that one.

 

And like I said....you gave 4% to Minnesota? Nooooo

 

[Goal-line]

NU's season will depend largley on the Offensive and Defensive Line. They were supposed to be better last year, but sadly they were not. If the result is the same this year, look for another 10-4 season. To try and analyze each game is a crap shoot at best. If you cannot block and cannot tackle, you cannot win no matter how many stars your QB, RB or WR have behind their names. It is that simple. Anyone, who believes otherwise, is a fool.

[Treand3]

Southern Miss should be a win. New coach, last years team was Senior laden.

 

UCLA better be a win and I hope we KICK THEIR *** from Pasedena back to Westwood, if there is one program that I'm starting to detest is them. New coach very Petrino-esqe, likely new QB (Hundley, Fuller will be a WR/Wildcat QB many of their fans think so as well), plus we'll see Owa. I also feel this game is somewhat important for our recruiting presence with our So Cal prospects.

 

Arky St should be a win. Depth, depth, depth is the name of the game.

 

Idaho St...Its a schedule filler. Win

 

 

I'm not ready to speak on our B1G opponents yet. I hope our staff and players take this offseason seriously.

[HuskerShark]

Optimistically, I would predict a 12-0 regular season.

 

Realistically, I will say 9-3, maybe 10-2, maybe 11-1, but I am probably getting a little optimistic at 11-1. I will wait to see who fills the voids at LB, CB, S, and OL before I make any firm predictions though.

[robsker]

All these are subject to change but this early... here are some guesses...

 

Southern Miss...Win--75% probability.

 

@ UCLA...Win--60% probability.

 

Arkansas St...W--100%

 

Idaho St...W--100%

 

Wisconsin...L--65% probability (35% chance of winning)

 

@ Ohio St...L--70% probability (30% chance of winning)

 

@ Northwestern...W/L-- 45-65% probability of victory. Which this will be will be based on how bad the games with Wisconsin and OSU went... if NU got blown-out in bioth games... the confidence could be low and this gets tougher... if NU played well against Wisc. & OSU (tough losses) then maybe this goes better

 

Michigan...L--80% probability (20% chance of win)

 

@ Michigan St...W/L-- 40-60% chance of victory --- like the Northwesten game, this game depends on where the NU team is in terms of its psyche -- if the Wisc & OSU and Michigan games were all beat downs then NU could be so deflated and its season so over that this game could go south readily... If NU was pretty competive in those games and the team has some left in the tank, this could be a toss-up

 

Penn St...W--80% probability.

 

Minnestoa...W--100% probability.

 

@ Iowa...W--65% probability.

 

 

this early, it looks to me like NU gets 3 certain victories (Idaho State, Minnesota, Ark. State) --- 4 somewhat likely wins ( S.Miss, UCLA, PSU & Iowa), 2 toss ups (Northwestern & MSU) and 3 certain losses (Wisc, OSU, Michigan). So.... again an early prediction subject to later modification... but the most likely record would be 8-4 regular season... with a 7-5 and a 9-3 less probable than the 8-4 and perhaps about equally likely relative to one another. A key injury or two and the 7-5 becomes more likely and approaches the 8-4 probability. Staying healthy and add a few positive surprises and the 9-3 begins to approach the 8-4 probability.

 

So... expect next season (in terms of the regular season) to be a slight drop off from this season... 4th-5th in the conference again seems about right. Again, I see no real shot at the conference championship or the division championship for NU next year... but there is a shot at finishing ranked (the 7-5 scenario --- even with a bowl win --- would not get us there) --- the 8-4 with a bowl win might (a bowl loss with but 8 wins .. no) --- the 9-3 regular season with a bowl win would have us finish ranked... that regular season with a bowl loss... maybe... depending on who we lost to in the bowl and close it was). So... to me, the attainable goal for NU is to finish in the top 25. We have a shot... though it is in no way certain.

 

Should be a fun season again rooting for our guys.

[robsker]

We will not lose to Northwestern twice in a row. Period.

 

Well.... that game is positioned poorly for NU --- it is after Wisconsin and OSu --- and both those games could go very badly for NU --- and it is the week before Michigan --- and it is on the road. That is a bad set-up for the Huskers. I contend that the outcome of the NW game will be highly dependant upon the Wisconsisn and OSU games --- if NU gets schooled in those games... then the emotional/ confidence state of the team going into Evanston (with Michigan looming) could be low... and a road loss to a team that beat us at home last year is not only likely but fairly probable. That said... if the Wisconsin & OSU games go fairly well (at least not demoralizing blow outs) then NU might be in reasonable shape.

 

But losing to NW twice in a row is not unlikely at all. The game is a toss up sure... but that means that loss is as probable as victory.

[HuskerShark]

Once again, I would be surprised and disappointed if we are worse than last year in any category. Maybe I'm just a big red kool-aid drinker, but IMO the special teams should be just as good or better, the offense should have the maturity and experience to make strides this offseason and be one of the B1G's best offenses, and if the right guys step in on defense, they should be slightly better as well.

[robsker]

Once again, I would be surprised and disappointed if we are worse than last year in any category. Maybe I'm just a big red kool-aid drinker, but IMO the special teams should be just as good or better, the offense should have the maturity and experience to make strides this offseason and be one of the B1G's best offenses, and if the right guys step in on defense, they should be slightly better as well.

 

 

I don't think you are kool-aid drinking overly in thinking NU should be better in most categories --- such is not unreasonable. I say that when making a prediction of a slight drop-off in the team as a whole. Neither a modest improvement or a modest step back seems unreasonable. What I'd think is unreasonable is a prediction of substantial improvement (like 1-2 loss predictions) or a massive step back (6-7 loss predictions).

 

So... we hedge slightly in opposite directions... me thinking a slight step back and you thinking (if I characterize your position accurately) a slight step forward. Both seem reasonable to me. Anything (positive or negative) beyond a modest change... well that is where unreasonable comes in.