The Dude Posted August 31, 2012 Share Posted August 31, 2012 At the risk of making an unrealistic and irrational prediction, I'd say 60% is obtainable. I like that he's shooting for 70%, if he wasn't absurdly overconfident, I wouldn't want him at QB1. Quote Link to comment
RedDenver Posted August 31, 2012 Share Posted August 31, 2012 It's hard to catch a ball when it rarely hits you in the numbers or is timed improperly. - FACT . People really need to learn the difference between fact and opinion. Er, the thing you quoted IS a fact. Most of the rest of the stuff he said (that Martinez nearly always times it improperly or doesn't throw it on the numbers) was not. No. The statement "hard to catch" is subjective and cannot therefore be a fact. Quote Link to comment
zoogs Posted August 31, 2012 Share Posted August 31, 2012 Let's put it this way... Throws that are often off-target or improperly timed have a lower completion rate than balls that are less often prone to such mistakes. I do not think that is disputable. Quote Link to comment
NUance Posted August 31, 2012 Share Posted August 31, 2012 Let's put it this way... Throws that are often off-target or improperly timed have a lower completion rate than balls that are less often prone to such mistakes. I do not think that is disputable. This is a football message board. Everything is disputable. Quote Link to comment
RedDenver Posted August 31, 2012 Share Posted August 31, 2012 Let's put it this way... Throws that are often off-target or improperly timed have a lower completion rate than balls that are less often prone to such mistakes. I do not think that is disputable. You still have to prove whether it's true or false. Without evidence, it's still debatable. But I think I've run off-topic for long enough. I think Martinez will have a completion percentage of 60-65% this season. Quote Link to comment
zoogs Posted August 31, 2012 Share Posted August 31, 2012 Let's put it this way... Throws that are often off-target or improperly timed have a lower completion rate than balls that are less often prone to such mistakes. I do not think that is disputable. You still have to prove whether it's true or false. Without evidence, it's still debatable. Darn, we don't know if that one is true or false? Silly 'every quarterback ever', striving to throw the ball accurately. If they only knew they might possibly have a better chance of completing it, by throwing it off-timing and off-target. I think we're onto a breakthrough here... Quote Link to comment
RedDenver Posted August 31, 2012 Share Posted August 31, 2012 Let's put it this way... Throws that are often off-target or improperly timed have a lower completion rate than balls that are less often prone to such mistakes. I do not think that is disputable. You still have to prove whether it's true or false. Without evidence, it's still debatable. Darn, we don't know if that one is true or false? Silly 'every quarterback ever', striving to throw the ball accurately. If they only knew they might possibly have a better chance of completing it, by throwing it off-timing and off-target. I think we're onto a breakthrough here... Imagine if we went back and found that WR's caught more "off-target" throws than "on-target" throws. It'd be similar to the recent stats that show that going for it on 4th down is a more successful strategy than punting. Goes against the conventional wisdom. P.S. I actually agree with your general point: some passes are easier to catch than others. Quote Link to comment
FLU Posted August 31, 2012 Share Posted August 31, 2012 FALSE -- and it won't be close, IMO. Probably closer to 50 than 60. Quote Link to comment
zoogs Posted August 31, 2012 Share Posted August 31, 2012 Imagine if we went back and found that WR's caught more "off-target" throws than "on-target" throws. It'd be similar to the recent stats that show that going for it on 4th down is a more successful strategy than punting. Goes against the conventional wisdom. Yes, I agree that would be quite the revelation. However, on the topic of 4th quarter "recent stats show", I don't buy into that at all. There is no context for these statistics. They ultimately attempt to answer a question of strategy as if it were one that could be answered definitively with fact. You can't really compare Expected Value EV(Punting) against EV(Going for it on 4th down)....because ultimately, what is the value? What kind of effect does it have on the game when you routinely give up field position? Let's say you go for it on four 4th downs per game. If you make all four it might be a coup, but what if missing three out of the four seriously lowers your chances for winning? ^ In the end, there are no simple ways to quantify something like this (and the same goes for two point conversions). All the "statistics" show are conversion rates on 2-pt conversions, or 4th down tries. It is then up to opinion and interpretation if a coach is willing to accept that risk or not. Quote Link to comment
BigRedBuster Posted August 31, 2012 Share Posted August 31, 2012 FALSE -- and it won't be close, IMO. Probably closer to 50 than 60. Why would have have a worse completion percentage than last year? Quote Link to comment
lo country Posted August 31, 2012 Share Posted August 31, 2012 TRUE. He will actually have a completion rate of 100% for the passes that are caught. That my friends, is an incredible feat. Quote Link to comment
RedDenver Posted August 31, 2012 Share Posted August 31, 2012 Imagine if we went back and found that WR's caught more "off-target" throws than "on-target" throws. It'd be similar to the recent stats that show that going for it on 4th down is a more successful strategy than punting. Goes against the conventional wisdom. Yes, I agree that would be quite the revelation. However, on the topic of 4th quarter "recent stats show", I don't buy into that at all. There is no context for these statistics. They ultimately attempt to answer a question of strategy as if it were one that could be answered definitively with fact. You can't really compare Expected Value EV(Punting) against EV(Going for it on 4th down)....because ultimately, what is the value? What kind of effect does it have on the game when you routinely give up field position? Let's say you go for it on four 4th downs per game. If you make all four it might be a coup, but what if missing three out of the four seriously lowers your chances for winning? ^ In the end, there are no simple ways to quantify something like this (and the same goes for two point conversions). All the "statistics" show are conversion rates on 2-pt conversions, or 4th down tries. It is then up to opinion and interpretation if a coach is willing to accept that risk or not. I completely agree. I was just using it as a recent topic that runs counter to conventional wisdom. Statistics are generally used to attempt to give simplified answers to scenarios based on conflicting or insufficient data. If there was a single answer, then statistics probably weren't necessary. Quote Link to comment
Moiraine Posted August 31, 2012 Share Posted August 31, 2012 It's hard to catch a ball when it rarely hits you in the numbers or is timed improperly. - FACT . People really need to learn the difference between fact and opinion. Er, the thing you quoted IS a fact. Most of the rest of the stuff he said (that Martinez nearly always times it improperly or doesn't throw it on the numbers) was not. No. The statement "hard to catch" is subjective and cannot therefore be a fact. Alright, you've got me. But he clearly meant "harder" to catch and that's fact. It requires more of the body's energy when you have to move your arms further from the body, and the hand-eye coordination requirement is higher. Quote Link to comment
FLU Posted August 31, 2012 Share Posted August 31, 2012 FALSE -- and it won't be close, IMO. Probably closer to 50 than 60. Why would have have a worse completion percentage than last year? Just my opinion. Quote Link to comment
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.