Let's Do Some Research

[BoNeyard]

One thing mathmaticians would also consider. the # 62. Riley's age.Those other coaches were young at the time of their inheritence of said program. I sure as hell hope Riley wins a national title 4 years from now, but suddenly he's 66. Then we start our rebuild after he retires.

[NU jumper alum]

OP...single best post this year! I would add that it is OK to be frustrated, it is OK to be angry. No one likes to come out of the gates 2-4. However, let's keep our heads. Dumping another coach this soon would likely do much more harm that allowing MR to at least get his plan in place and start to see it come to fruition.

[huKSer]

 

 

Good points Landlord, and I want to be optimistic. My concern however, is that three of our losses can be directly tied to poor end of game coaching. How can we be optimistic that will improve at this point in MR's career?

 

Which three losses can be tied directly to poor end of game coaching and what were the egregious coaching errors?

 

 

......Literally all three of them.

 

Edit - reading comprehension

[Bowfin]

Give Mike Riley seven years, if he wants that many. That should tell Nebraska fandom what it needs to know.

[Hunter94]

 

 

Riley really did do great things at Oregon State.

538 had an article this year about which teams outperform their recruiting rankings. From 2005-2014 OSU averaged 4th best in the country among P5 teams at that. That doesn't happen without good coaching.

A short series of articles about positive coach effects on footballstudyhall included one about Riley. From the article:

 

Mike Riley is the kind of coach that this analysis really favors, and with good reason. Among programs in FBS AQ conferences there are few that could be argued are more disadvantaged than Oregon State’s (Washington State, Duke, Wake Forest and Kansas State and maybe a few others). Riley has to be Mr. Do-More-with-Less for Oregon State to even remain respectable, let alone finish a year nationally ranked, which the Beavers have in four of the last seven seasons.

What is probably most interesting is that the Riley’s success at Oregon State hasn’t been driven by any cutting edge offensive or defensive schemes. On offense the Beavers run a fairly standard one-back "pro style" scheme. On defense, they run an aggressive 4-3. Riley gets it done the "old fashioned" way. What his program is really all about is superior talent evaluation and strong player development.

 

It's his first year. We haven't had to the chance to see his main strengths as a coach.

His W/L record is deceiving. We are talking about a program that had 26 straight losing seasons and averaged 2.2 wins a year during that period before Riley was hired. And nearly every year he faced tough schedules. Over the past 11 years the Sagarin rankings had OSU's SOS ranked 2, 31, 15, 16, 8, 23, 1, 19, 13, 18, and 47. The 2010 team had the second toughest schedule in the 17 years of the Sagarin rankings. That team finished #29 in the Sagarin rankings. But because of the brutal schedule schedule the team finished 5-7. A bad record but not really a bad team.

But it stalled out and they had two bad seasons over the past five years (yes, two, not four, according to computer rankings that take SOS into account).

I still think there's a great chance that he'll do well at Nebraska.

 

 

This is the kind of stuff impatience will never see. I don't know if Riley can be successful here, but after six games neither does anybody else.

 

holy sh#t, how many ways are there to make the sun shine on this dog's ass anyway??

[InOmaha]

Ameer and 5 starters on defense out is the difference between last year and this year. If Armstrong has an off day nobody is there to compensate because or next best skill players are recievers.

[Sho'nuff]

• There is no evidence that shows a direct correlation between early success at a school and sustained future success at that school.

 

 

Great post and awesome job on the research. I'm not going to argue with anything you said, but what I would like to point out is the above quote in your OP. I think that what a lot of us fans (at least those of us older than maybe 25-30) are comparing our ideas of what a successful coach should be to TO. Those of us that lived through that era proably can't help to compare all future coaches to him. And when looking at his record:

http://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/coaches/tom-osborne-1.html

then it would seem the above statement is not true. Now TO was one of a kind and I am sure you didn't mean him specifically but meant generally with all coaches. However, unfortunately, a lot of our mindsets even 15 years later still aren't there yet.

[84HuskerLaw]

Ameer and 5 starters on defense out is the difference between last year and this year. If Armstrong has an off day nobody is there to compensate because or next best skill players are recievers.

I think the stinking wind had something to do with the game as well. Wisconsin probably set records for most passes attempted in a game. they felt they could throw against the statistically worst pass defense in the nation and they were right, although the wind and about a dozen pass break ups and strips made the completions difficult. Our run defense was pretty salty for most of the game, MUCH better than prior games against these guys certainly.

 

Injuries hurt but it hurt other teams we've played as well. I am not comfortable taking very much solace in the injury excuse this year. We need to play hard and find the guys to fill in for the injured. This is a part of the game and happens almost every year. Previous teams suffered this bug. The penalty bug continues too.

 

I do think we are playing hard at times, though not throughout the games, even when the score is close and the battle is raging. The kind of fight and heart a player has in something we need to be sure when we recruit from now on. If his coach, film and our independent sources (local scouts, etc) dont suggest the kid plays like a lion, we need to be careful. Heart is almost as important as athletic raw talent.

 

We get some guys healed up and win Saturday, they team can still claw and fight their way into a bowl of some kind maybe. It takes 4 wins to get there so they have to start now I'd say. If we lose this week, I maintain it is time to play for the future and bench the seniors.

[alwayshusking]

Enjoyed the post LOMS. It's weird that sometimes when I watch the Huskers I think the coaches are doing a good job keeping us in the game given the injuries and talent/depth, OTOH they have probably cost us 2 games as well.

 

Either way it's too small of a sample size to bury Mike Riley. We all want instant success, but we may be very happy 2-3 years from now by going through these hard times. I've always felt the 1st year is the least indicative of how a coach's tenure will go.

 

Need to get crootin. That's what will get the Big Red Machine up and running again.

[InOmaha]

 

Ameer and 5 starters on defense out is the difference between last year and this year. If Armstrong has an off day nobody is there to compensate because or next best skill players are recievers.

 

I think the stinking wind had something to do with the game as well. Wisconsin probably set records for most passes attempted in a game. they felt they could throw against the statistically worst pass defense in the nation and they were right, although the wind and about a dozen pass break ups and strips made the completions difficult. Our run defense was pretty salty for most of the game, MUCH better than prior games against these guys certainly.

 

Injuries hurt but it hurt other teams we've played as well. I am not comfortable taking very much solace in the injury excuse this year. We need to play hard and find the guys to fill in for the injured. This is a part of the game and happens almost every year. Previous teams suffered this bug. The penalty bug continues too.

 

I do think we are playing hard at times, though not throughout the games, even when the score is close and the battle is raging. The kind of fight and heart a player has in something we need to be sure when we recruit from now on. If his coach, film and our independent sources (local scouts, etc) dont suggest the kid plays like a lion, we need to be careful. Heart is almost as important as athletic raw talent.

 

We get some guys healed up and win Saturday, they team can still claw and fight their way into a bowl of some kind maybe. It takes 4 wins to get there so they have to start now I'd say. If we lose this week, I maintain it is time to play for the future and bench the seniors.

I agree.

 

We're even with Wisconsin this year because we both lost all Americans and are injury riddled. We aren't significantly different than last year. We needed easier games to pad the record for a bowl game. But we haven't been competitive in the Big 10 west for years. Not to mention the whole Big 10. We sneak a game or 2 to down Michigan teams but can't get past Iowa, Northwestern, and Wisconsin.

 

Beat Illinois and BYU and we are in the same boat as last year. Crossing our fingers to beat freaking Minnesota. Winning 9 to finish unranked or barely ranked like South Carolina on a good year or some other half relevant team from 15 to 20 years ago.

[74Hunter]

Ameer and 5 starters on defense out is the difference between last year and this year. If Armstrong has an off day nobody is there to compensate because or next best skill players are recievers.

That's the nature of college football. Have to plan for this, unless you're Oklahoma and have Lashars around for about 100 years.

[soup]

 

Ameer and 5 starters on defense out is the difference between last year and this year. If Armstrong has an off day nobody is there to compensate because or next best skill players are recievers.

That's the nature of college football. Have to plan for this, unless you're Oklahoma and have Lashars around for about 100 years.

 

and usually you plan for this in recruiting. and how has Riley had been able to fix that in 9 months?

[GBRedneck]

 

 

This is the kind of stuff impatience will never see.

So were the '90s.

[Danny Bateman]

 

This is the kind of stuff impatience will never see.

 

So were the '90s.

You're right. We should've fired Osborne by 1980 at the latest.

 

He didn't even have one top 5 finish!

[audiciter]

 

Prior to Tressel arriving, Ohio State had gone 8-3 (#19), 10-1 (#11), 9-4 (#9), 11-2 (#8), 11-1 (#2), 10-3 (#12), 11-1 (#2), 6-6 and 8-4. Then Tressel comes in, underperforms for a season, then explodes. So it can maybe be done! Woohoo!

 

I appreciate the positive vibe but I'd be lying if I felt as good about things. I just have a bad feeling about everything and want to be wrong.

 

Tressel was a proven winner at Youngstown State before OSU hired him. They were 135–57–2 under him and 103–27–2 in the 90's. With like 3 or 4 national championships.

 

You usually hear things like "yeah but that was FCS, he can't coach D1". I believe that if you can win consistently in one place you can win anywhere. You either know how to coach football and fundamentals or you don't.

 

As much as I think MR is a good person and has had a couple of good years, he hasn't really shown he can win consistently anywhere he has been.

 

He was

40-32 in the CFL (2 losing seasons - 2 winning seasons)

14-34 in the NFL (no winning seasons)

93-80 at OSU - 58-63 in conference play (8 winning seasons - 6 losing seasons)

 

Again, I hope you're right and it all works out. I just have a sinking feeling we're going to reel off multiple 7-6 seasons with an occasional upset of a top 10 team over the next few years.