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The General Election

Moiraine

By Moiraine,
in Politics & Religion

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HuskerNation1 All Conference

HuskerNation1

Posted
Posted

 

 

I hope bnilhome is paid good money for his dogged work as a GOP counter-programming station. I respect that we disagree politically, but you really are a warrior for your cause.

 

Thanks for the compliment. I started watching elections when I was 10 and have followed politics closely since then. We are stuck in an election with 2 lousy candidates, but it seems most on here want to spend more time just criticizing one, so yes, there is some counter-balancing needed. I'm frankly amazed we are looking at a 4 to 6 point race still at this point given how bad of a month Trump has had and the fact Trump has yet to spend any money on advertising. I think we will see this race tighten once we get past labor day.

 

http://www.washingtonexaminer.com/pow-its-just-a-2-point-race-clinton-38-trump-36/article/2599471

 

I realize Nate Silver is not a fan of Zogby since Zogby relies on Internet Surveys, but I think this article from Pew is pretty intriguing at the difference responses provided between phone and online surveys.

 

http://www.washingtonexaminer.com/poll-wars-pew-says-internet-polls-often-more-accurate-candid-than-phone-surveys/article/2564575

 

It's going to end up like Brexit. It has the exact same feel and progression.

 

Yes, good point Creighton

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HuskerNation1 All Conference

HuskerNation1

Posted
Posted

 

but it seems most on here want to spend more time just criticizing one

 

 

Yeah. Because one is way, way worse.

 

 

I'm not a big fan of sinus infections. Don't like them, don't care for them, don't support them. But I don't spend a lot of time in active opposition to that because it just is what it is. Lung cancer, on the other hand, is much worse, and I'll spend a lot more time and energy being opposed to that particularly awful disease.

 

 

I know there has been a lot of worries over Hillary's falls and having to hold onto things. I didn't realize she had lung cancer.

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NM11046 All-American

NM11046

Posted
Posted

 

Manafort funneled $2.2M+ into the US from pro-Russian Ukraine sources trying to meddle in our political system.

 

Trump may have had his hand forced on this shakeup, to some degree. This guy just keeps getting dirtier.

Hey now, he just wanted to Make Russia Great Again.

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Creighton Duke Scout Team

Creighton Duke

Posted
Posted

 

 

 

I hope bnilhome is paid good money for his dogged work as a GOP counter-programming station. I respect that we disagree politically, but you really are a warrior for your cause.

 

Thanks for the compliment. I started watching elections when I was 10 and have followed politics closely since then. We are stuck in an election with 2 lousy candidates, but it seems most on here want to spend more time just criticizing one, so yes, there is some counter-balancing needed. I'm frankly amazed we are looking at a 4 to 6 point race still at this point given how bad of a month Trump has had and the fact Trump has yet to spend any money on advertising. I think we will see this race tighten once we get past labor day.

 

http://www.washingtonexaminer.com/pow-its-just-a-2-point-race-clinton-38-trump-36/article/2599471

 

I realize Nate Silver is not a fan of Zogby since Zogby relies on Internet Surveys, but I think this article from Pew is pretty intriguing at the difference responses provided between phone and online surveys.

 

http://www.washingtonexaminer.com/poll-wars-pew-says-internet-polls-often-more-accurate-candid-than-phone-surveys/article/2564575

 

It's going to end up like Brexit. It has the exact same feel and progression.

 

The Republican Primaries were exactly like Brexit. A lot of people who voted for how it turned out went....WTF...I didn't think he would win.

 

No, not like that. More like people coming out on online forums and social media virtue-signaling and making it appear as though the lead for Clinton is much larger than it is.

 

Huskerboard is good example of this where the pro-Clinton posts are not only more numerous, but are also +1'd at a much higher rate than pro-Trump posts. Yet in the basic straw pole (straw pole) Clinton only "won" by 2 votes. I expect this disparity to continue to permeate through November and for a lot of people to wake up on November 9 genuinely surprised at what happened.

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NM11046 All-American

NM11046

Posted
Posted

 

 

 

 

I hope bnilhome is paid good money for his dogged work as a GOP counter-programming station. I respect that we disagree politically, but you really are a warrior for your cause.

 

Thanks for the compliment. I started watching elections when I was 10 and have followed politics closely since then. We are stuck in an election with 2 lousy candidates, but it seems most on here want to spend more time just criticizing one, so yes, there is some counter-balancing needed. I'm frankly amazed we are looking at a 4 to 6 point race still at this point given how bad of a month Trump has had and the fact Trump has yet to spend any money on advertising. I think we will see this race tighten once we get past labor day.

 

http://www.washingtonexaminer.com/pow-its-just-a-2-point-race-clinton-38-trump-36/article/2599471

 

I realize Nate Silver is not a fan of Zogby since Zogby relies on Internet Surveys, but I think this article from Pew is pretty intriguing at the difference responses provided between phone and online surveys.

 

http://www.washingtonexaminer.com/poll-wars-pew-says-internet-polls-often-more-accurate-candid-than-phone-surveys/article/2564575

 

It's going to end up like Brexit. It has the exact same feel and progression.

 

The Republican Primaries were exactly like Brexit. A lot of people who voted for how it turned out went....WTF...I didn't think he would win.

 

No, not like that. More like people coming out on online forums and social media virtue-signaling and making it appear as though the lead for Clinton is much larger than it is.

 

Huskerboard is good example of this where the pro-Clinton posts are not only more numerous, but are also +1'd at a much higher rate than pro-Trump posts. Yet in the basic straw pole (straw pole) Clinton only "won" by 2 votes. I expect this disparity to continue to permeate through November and for a lot of people to wake up on November 9 genuinely surprised at what happened.

 

Funny you bring up the straw poll - I'd like to run it again now that it's post convention. I'm not so sure the numbers stay where they started.

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Creighton Duke Scout Team

Creighton Duke

Posted
Posted

 

 

but it seems most on here want to spend more time just criticizing one

 

 

Yeah. Because one is way, way worse.

 

 

I'm not a big fan of sinus infections. Don't like them, don't care for them, don't support them. But I don't spend a lot of time in active opposition to that because it just is what it is. Lung cancer, on the other hand, is much worse, and I'll spend a lot more time and energy being opposed to that particularly awful disease.

 

 

I know there has been a lot of worries over Hillary's falls and having to hold onto things. I didn't realize she had lung cancer.

 

I don't think that is the case. According to Dr. Drew it is only "possible brain damage"

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It'sNotAFakeID Heisman Winner

It'sNotAFakeID

Posted
Posted

Very quickly and crudely crunched some numbers to get a projected electoral vote count. I used 538's projected voter share by state for this analysis.

 

Criteria:

 

  • Decidedly Trump: Any state where Trump's lowest confidence interval value exceeds Clinton's highest confidence interval value
  • Decidedly Clinton: Any state where Clinton's lowest confidence value exceeds Trump's highest confidence interval value
  • Too Close To Call: Any state where there was a significant overlap in confidence intervals between both candidates. More on these states later.

 

Decidedly Trump

 

Here are the states and the number of electoral votes that will definitely vote Trump in November:

 

Alabama (9), Alaska (3), Arkansas (6), Idaho (4), Indiana (11), Kansas (6), Kentucky (8), Louisiana (8), Mississippi (6), Montana (3), Nebraska (4), North Dakota (3), Oklahoma (7), South Dakota (3), Tennessee (11), Texas (38), Utah (6), West Virginia (5), and Wyoming (3).

 

That's 144 electoral votes that'll definitely go to Trump.

 

Decidedly Clinton

 

Here are the states and the number of electoral votes that will definitely vote Clinton in November:

 

California (55), Connecticut (7), Delaware (3), District of Columbia (3), Hawaii (4), Illinois (20), Maine (3), Maryland (10), Massachusetts (11), Michigan (16), New Jersey (14), New Mexico (5), New York (29), Oregon (7), Rhode Island (4), Vermont (3), and Washington (12).

 

That's 206 electoral votes that'll definitely go to Clinton.

 

Too Close To Call

 

Here are the states and the number of electoral votes that today are too close to call:

 

Arizona (11), Colorado (9), Florida (29), Georgia (16), Iowa (6), Maine (1), Minnesota (10), Missouri (10), Nebraska (1), Nevada (6), New Hampshire (4), North Carolina (15), Ohio (18), Pennsylvania (20), South Carolina (9), Virginia (13), and Wisconsin (10).

 

That's 188 votes left undecided.

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It'sNotAFakeID Heisman Winner

It'sNotAFakeID

Posted
Posted

More on the Undecided States

 

From the 538 data, there isn't a tie between Trump and Clinton in any of the states that I deemed too close to call. Clinton is ahead in some states and Trump is ahead in others. So, of those 188 remaining electoral votes--enough to swing the election either way, which states are leaning towards Trump and which states are leaning towards Clinton? To determine this, I calculated the average and standard deviation of the margins between Trump and Clinton in each of the undecided states. On average, Hillary leads these undecided states by about 1.8%, with a standard deviation of 4.3%. What that means is that Trump has to have a 2.5% lead in order for a state to lean Trump whereas Clinton has to have a 6.1% lead in order for a state to lean Clinton.

 

Leaning Trump

 

Here are the states and their electoral vote count that are leaning towards Trump:

 

Arizona (11), Georgia (16), Missouri (10), Nebraska (1), and South Carolina (9). That's 47 electoral votes that will probably go Trump's way in November.

 

Leaning Clinton

 

Here are the states and their electoral vote count that are leaning towards Clinton:

 

Colorado (9), Minnesota (10), Virginia (13), and Wisconsin (10). That's 42 electoral votes that will probably go Clinton's way in November.

 

Still Unsure

 

However, there are still some states where no candidate has staked out a clear advantage. They are:

 

Florida (29), Iowa (6), Maine (1), Nevada (6), New Hampshire (4), North Carolina (15), Ohio (18), and Pennsylvania (20).That leaves 99 electoral votes--again enough to swing the election--up for grabs.

 

 

 

So my extremely rushed and extremely crude electoral vote projection as of today sits at: Clinton 248--Trump 191. To win the Presidency, a candidate must win a majority of the electoral votes, which is 270 votes.

 

Currently, neither Clinton nor Trump satisfy that requirement, but Clinton has a lot more ways to win than Trump. To reach 270 votes, Clinton must AT LEAST:

 

  • Win Florida
  • Win Pennsylvania AND any of the following states: Iowa, Nevada, New Hampshire, North Carolina, OR Ohio

  • Win Ohio AND any of the following states: Iowa, Nevada, New Hampshire, OR North Carolina

  • Win North Carolina AND ANY COMBINATION of the following states: Iowa, Nevada, OR New Hampshire

Here are the scenarios that allow Trump to reach 270 electoral votes

 

  • Wins Florida, Pennsylvania, Ohio, and North Carolina
  • Wins Florida, Pennsylvania, Ohio, Iowa, Nevada, and New Hampshire

  • Wins Florida, Ohio, North Carolina, Iowa, Nevada, New Hampshire, and Maine.

  • Wins Florida, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Iowa, Nevada, and New Hampshire

Essentially, Trump has to win Florida and at least 2 states out of Pennsylvania, Ohio, and North Carolina. Barring every other state votes how I've listed above, Trump loses the election by not winning Florida, but he doesn't win the election by winning Florida.

 

Basically, it comes down to Florida. Great.

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