Danny Bateman Posted August 17, 2016 Share Posted August 17, 2016 So....now, what are we on.....the third campaign chairman? https://twitter.com/voxdotcom/status/765897903676227584 https://mobile.twitter.com/RyanLizza/status/765986358859005952 He's been talking about Trump TV recently... The may be closer to the truth than any of us know. Link to comment
HuskerNation1 Posted August 17, 2016 Share Posted August 17, 2016 I hope bnilhome is paid good money for his dogged work as a GOP counter-programming station. I respect that we disagree politically, but you really are a warrior for your cause. Thanks for the compliment. I started watching elections when I was 10 and have followed politics closely since then. We are stuck in an election with 2 lousy candidates, but it seems most on here want to spend more time just criticizing one, so yes, there is some counter-balancing needed. I'm frankly amazed we are looking at a 4 to 6 point race still at this point given how bad of a month Trump has had and the fact Trump has yet to spend any money on advertising. I think we will see this race tighten once we get past labor day. http://www.washingtonexaminer.com/pow-its-just-a-2-point-race-clinton-38-trump-36/article/2599471 I realize Nate Silver is not a fan of Zogby since Zogby relies on Internet Surveys, but I think this article from Pew is pretty intriguing at the difference responses provided between phone and online surveys. http://www.washingtonexaminer.com/poll-wars-pew-says-internet-polls-often-more-accurate-candid-than-phone-surveys/article/2564575 It's going to end up like Brexit. It has the exact same feel and progression. Yes, good point Creighton Link to comment
HuskerNation1 Posted August 17, 2016 Share Posted August 17, 2016 but it seems most on here want to spend more time just criticizing one Yeah. Because one is way, way worse. I'm not a big fan of sinus infections. Don't like them, don't care for them, don't support them. But I don't spend a lot of time in active opposition to that because it just is what it is. Lung cancer, on the other hand, is much worse, and I'll spend a lot more time and energy being opposed to that particularly awful disease. I know there has been a lot of worries over Hillary's falls and having to hold onto things. I didn't realize she had lung cancer. Link to comment
Red Five Posted August 17, 2016 Share Posted August 17, 2016 lol https://twitter.com/ChadMosher/status/766020239293292547 2 Link to comment
NM11046 Posted August 17, 2016 Share Posted August 17, 2016 lol https://twitter.com/ChadMosher/status/766020239293292547 No wonder Don is a mess if this is who he's getting counsel from. Link to comment
Danny Bateman Posted August 17, 2016 Share Posted August 17, 2016 Manafort funneled $2.2M+ into the US from pro-Russian Ukraine sources trying to meddle in our political system. Trump may have had his hand forced on this shakeup, to some degree. This guy just keeps getting dirtier. Link to comment
NM11046 Posted August 18, 2016 Share Posted August 18, 2016 Manafort funneled $2.2M+ into the US from pro-Russian Ukraine sources trying to meddle in our political system. Trump may have had his hand forced on this shakeup, to some degree. This guy just keeps getting dirtier. Hey now, he just wanted to Make Russia Great Again. 1 Link to comment
BigRedBuster Posted August 18, 2016 Share Posted August 18, 2016 But...but...but.....he's going to hire the best people. And....he is great and everyone loves him. 2 Link to comment
HuskerNation1 Posted August 18, 2016 Share Posted August 18, 2016 It looks like Republicans are not the only ones trying to hide from their nominee. Maggie Hassan, in a critical New Hampshire Senate race, completely dodged questions around whether Hillary is honest. Not once, not twice, but 3 times she dodged the question. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PgQna0j31U4 Link to comment
Creighton Duke Posted August 18, 2016 Share Posted August 18, 2016 I hope bnilhome is paid good money for his dogged work as a GOP counter-programming station. I respect that we disagree politically, but you really are a warrior for your cause. Thanks for the compliment. I started watching elections when I was 10 and have followed politics closely since then. We are stuck in an election with 2 lousy candidates, but it seems most on here want to spend more time just criticizing one, so yes, there is some counter-balancing needed. I'm frankly amazed we are looking at a 4 to 6 point race still at this point given how bad of a month Trump has had and the fact Trump has yet to spend any money on advertising. I think we will see this race tighten once we get past labor day. http://www.washingtonexaminer.com/pow-its-just-a-2-point-race-clinton-38-trump-36/article/2599471 I realize Nate Silver is not a fan of Zogby since Zogby relies on Internet Surveys, but I think this article from Pew is pretty intriguing at the difference responses provided between phone and online surveys. http://www.washingtonexaminer.com/poll-wars-pew-says-internet-polls-often-more-accurate-candid-than-phone-surveys/article/2564575 It's going to end up like Brexit. It has the exact same feel and progression. The Republican Primaries were exactly like Brexit. A lot of people who voted for how it turned out went....WTF...I didn't think he would win. No, not like that. More like people coming out on online forums and social media virtue-signaling and making it appear as though the lead for Clinton is much larger than it is. Huskerboard is good example of this where the pro-Clinton posts are not only more numerous, but are also +1'd at a much higher rate than pro-Trump posts. Yet in the basic straw pole (straw pole) Clinton only "won" by 2 votes. I expect this disparity to continue to permeate through November and for a lot of people to wake up on November 9 genuinely surprised at what happened. Link to comment
NM11046 Posted August 18, 2016 Share Posted August 18, 2016 I hope bnilhome is paid good money for his dogged work as a GOP counter-programming station. I respect that we disagree politically, but you really are a warrior for your cause. Thanks for the compliment. I started watching elections when I was 10 and have followed politics closely since then. We are stuck in an election with 2 lousy candidates, but it seems most on here want to spend more time just criticizing one, so yes, there is some counter-balancing needed. I'm frankly amazed we are looking at a 4 to 6 point race still at this point given how bad of a month Trump has had and the fact Trump has yet to spend any money on advertising. I think we will see this race tighten once we get past labor day. http://www.washingtonexaminer.com/pow-its-just-a-2-point-race-clinton-38-trump-36/article/2599471 I realize Nate Silver is not a fan of Zogby since Zogby relies on Internet Surveys, but I think this article from Pew is pretty intriguing at the difference responses provided between phone and online surveys. http://www.washingtonexaminer.com/poll-wars-pew-says-internet-polls-often-more-accurate-candid-than-phone-surveys/article/2564575 It's going to end up like Brexit. It has the exact same feel and progression. The Republican Primaries were exactly like Brexit. A lot of people who voted for how it turned out went....WTF...I didn't think he would win. No, not like that. More like people coming out on online forums and social media virtue-signaling and making it appear as though the lead for Clinton is much larger than it is. Huskerboard is good example of this where the pro-Clinton posts are not only more numerous, but are also +1'd at a much higher rate than pro-Trump posts. Yet in the basic straw pole (straw pole) Clinton only "won" by 2 votes. I expect this disparity to continue to permeate through November and for a lot of people to wake up on November 9 genuinely surprised at what happened. Funny you bring up the straw poll - I'd like to run it again now that it's post convention. I'm not so sure the numbers stay where they started. Link to comment
Creighton Duke Posted August 18, 2016 Share Posted August 18, 2016 but it seems most on here want to spend more time just criticizing one Yeah. Because one is way, way worse. I'm not a big fan of sinus infections. Don't like them, don't care for them, don't support them. But I don't spend a lot of time in active opposition to that because it just is what it is. Lung cancer, on the other hand, is much worse, and I'll spend a lot more time and energy being opposed to that particularly awful disease. I know there has been a lot of worries over Hillary's falls and having to hold onto things. I didn't realize she had lung cancer. I don't think that is the case. According to Dr. Drew it is only "possible brain damage" Link to comment
It'sNotAFakeID Posted August 18, 2016 Share Posted August 18, 2016 It was opposite day. Obviously. Link to comment
It'sNotAFakeID Posted August 18, 2016 Share Posted August 18, 2016 Very quickly and crudely crunched some numbers to get a projected electoral vote count. I used 538's projected voter share by state for this analysis. Criteria: Decidedly Trump: Any state where Trump's lowest confidence interval value exceeds Clinton's highest confidence interval value Decidedly Clinton: Any state where Clinton's lowest confidence value exceeds Trump's highest confidence interval value Too Close To Call: Any state where there was a significant overlap in confidence intervals between both candidates. More on these states later. Decidedly Trump Here are the states and the number of electoral votes that will definitely vote Trump in November: Alabama (9), Alaska (3), Arkansas (6), Idaho (4), Indiana (11), Kansas (6), Kentucky (8), Louisiana (8), Mississippi (6), Montana (3), Nebraska (4), North Dakota (3), Oklahoma (7), South Dakota (3), Tennessee (11), Texas (38), Utah (6), West Virginia (5), and Wyoming (3). That's 144 electoral votes that'll definitely go to Trump. Decidedly Clinton Here are the states and the number of electoral votes that will definitely vote Clinton in November: California (55), Connecticut (7), Delaware (3), District of Columbia (3), Hawaii (4), Illinois (20), Maine (3), Maryland (10), Massachusetts (11), Michigan (16), New Jersey (14), New Mexico (5), New York (29), Oregon (7), Rhode Island (4), Vermont (3), and Washington (12). That's 206 electoral votes that'll definitely go to Clinton. Too Close To Call Here are the states and the number of electoral votes that today are too close to call: Arizona (11), Colorado (9), Florida (29), Georgia (16), Iowa (6), Maine (1), Minnesota (10), Missouri (10), Nebraska (1), Nevada (6), New Hampshire (4), North Carolina (15), Ohio (18), Pennsylvania (20), South Carolina (9), Virginia (13), and Wisconsin (10). That's 188 votes left undecided. 3 Link to comment
It'sNotAFakeID Posted August 18, 2016 Share Posted August 18, 2016 More on the Undecided States From the 538 data, there isn't a tie between Trump and Clinton in any of the states that I deemed too close to call. Clinton is ahead in some states and Trump is ahead in others. So, of those 188 remaining electoral votes--enough to swing the election either way, which states are leaning towards Trump and which states are leaning towards Clinton? To determine this, I calculated the average and standard deviation of the margins between Trump and Clinton in each of the undecided states. On average, Hillary leads these undecided states by about 1.8%, with a standard deviation of 4.3%. What that means is that Trump has to have a 2.5% lead in order for a state to lean Trump whereas Clinton has to have a 6.1% lead in order for a state to lean Clinton. Leaning Trump Here are the states and their electoral vote count that are leaning towards Trump: Arizona (11), Georgia (16), Missouri (10), Nebraska (1), and South Carolina (9). That's 47 electoral votes that will probably go Trump's way in November. Leaning Clinton Here are the states and their electoral vote count that are leaning towards Clinton: Colorado (9), Minnesota (10), Virginia (13), and Wisconsin (10). That's 42 electoral votes that will probably go Clinton's way in November. Still Unsure However, there are still some states where no candidate has staked out a clear advantage. They are: Florida (29), Iowa (6), Maine (1), Nevada (6), New Hampshire (4), North Carolina (15), Ohio (18), and Pennsylvania (20).That leaves 99 electoral votes--again enough to swing the election--up for grabs. So my extremely rushed and extremely crude electoral vote projection as of today sits at: Clinton 248--Trump 191. To win the Presidency, a candidate must win a majority of the electoral votes, which is 270 votes. Currently, neither Clinton nor Trump satisfy that requirement, but Clinton has a lot more ways to win than Trump. To reach 270 votes, Clinton must AT LEAST: Win Florida Win Pennsylvania AND any of the following states: Iowa, Nevada, New Hampshire, North Carolina, OR Ohio Win Ohio AND any of the following states: Iowa, Nevada, New Hampshire, OR North Carolina Win North Carolina AND ANY COMBINATION of the following states: Iowa, Nevada, OR New Hampshire Here are the scenarios that allow Trump to reach 270 electoral votes Wins Florida, Pennsylvania, Ohio, and North Carolina Wins Florida, Pennsylvania, Ohio, Iowa, Nevada, and New Hampshire Wins Florida, Ohio, North Carolina, Iowa, Nevada, New Hampshire, and Maine. Wins Florida, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Iowa, Nevada, and New Hampshire Essentially, Trump has to win Florida and at least 2 states out of Pennsylvania, Ohio, and North Carolina. Barring every other state votes how I've listed above, Trump loses the election by not winning Florida, but he doesn't win the election by winning Florida. Basically, it comes down to Florida. Great. 5 Link to comment
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