The General Election

[BigRedBuster]

 

 

Shock Poll Rasmussen has Trump up by 6 in nationwide, likely voters poll.

It's not a shock. Rasmussen has consistently had Trump up when every other poll had Clinton up. I'll take it by itself as seriously as I take the Clinton +11 poll.

Rasmussen does not use oversample republicans by 13 points and undersample independents by 20 points. They were off in 2012 but have been reliable in other elections. They actually made the right senate race calls in 2014 but had smaller margins than the GOP candidates won by which means they probably overcorrected for not getting the 2012 race correct. Also Rasmussen and USA today/Suffolk focus on likely voters where most others use just registered voters.

 

Can someone tell me how a "likely voter" is determined by pollsters?

[TAKODA]

 

 

 

 

Trump seems to be getting a surge lately probably due to the email decision and him not doing anything overly stupid that last week or so. I expect to see his numbers go up over the next couple weeks due to the convention bounce. But I think that Hillary will gain all/most of it back after the D convention.

We are basically in a worthless dead period in the campaign. Really, the only news worthy items that have happened in the last few weeks is the email decision and Trump's soap opera VP search.

 

In other words, Trump hasn't opened his mouth up much lately to be able to spew idiotic stuff that can be thrown back at him.

 

I suspect once the conventions happen and things get cranked back up, he won't be able to help himself and it will be back to business as usual.

 

 

Which, if you think about it, is really damning against Clinton. Trump has a bump in the polls right now not because of something he's done, but because of something he hasn't done - open his mouth.

 

It basically means we could prop a watermelon in an Armani suit in front of a camera and it'd be polling nearly as well as Hillary Clinton.

 

As long as they have an R or a D beside their name. God forbid if someone without an R or a D tries to actually be sensible and run. Roughly 90% of the country will just say..."Oh...he doesn't have a chance.".

 

 

You're right. But that's because generations of Americans have grown up thinking Democrats & Republicans are "the government." That's our fault as much as anything.

 

That's why I'm voting Johnson this year. Screw 'em all. I'm done with these parties.

 

 

Knapp, totally appreciate your thoughts here and I too, am troubled that we are between a rock and a hard place, but you and I both know, Johnson don't have a chance in heck to win the election, thus, all of us who have the same type of thought process, would be wasting our vote and we will ultimately end up with one of the two that we have zero confidence in, running our country.

 

Voting the lesser of two evils here, is not a winning strategy either!

[HuskerNation1]

 

 

 

Shock Poll Rasmussen has Trump up by 6 in nationwide, likely voters poll.

 

It's not a shock. Rasmussen has consistently had Trump up when every other poll had Clinton up. I'll take it by itself as seriously as I take the Clinton +11 poll.

Rasmussen does not use oversample republicans by 13 points and undersample independents by 20 points. They were off in 2012 but have been reliable in other elections. They actually made the right senate race calls in 2014 but had smaller margins than the GOP candidates won by which means they probably overcorrected for not getting the 2012 race correct. Also Rasmussen and USA today/Suffolk focus on likely voters where most others use just registered voters.

Can someone tell me how a "likely voter" is determined by pollsters?

Just google how to determine who a likely voter is and you will get some good info. From what I have seen, the pollster will ask several questions in the poll, including "how likely are you to vote in the upcoming election" and if the respondent says definitely or most likely they are deemed a likely voter. Those that say maybe or not sure are not considered likely voters. You can also ask if they voted in the last Presidential election. Definitely room for error, but according to a 2010 huff post article which found that between 1/3 and 1/2 of registered voters didnt actually vote.

[BigRedBuster]

 

 

 

 

 

Trump seems to be getting a surge lately probably due to the email decision and him not doing anything overly stupid that last week or so. I expect to see his numbers go up over the next couple weeks due to the convention bounce. But I think that Hillary will gain all/most of it back after the D convention.

We are basically in a worthless dead period in the campaign. Really, the only news worthy items that have happened in the last few weeks is the email decision and Trump's soap opera VP search.

 

In other words, Trump hasn't opened his mouth up much lately to be able to spew idiotic stuff that can be thrown back at him.

 

I suspect once the conventions happen and things get cranked back up, he won't be able to help himself and it will be back to business as usual.

 

 

Which, if you think about it, is really damning against Clinton. Trump has a bump in the polls right now not because of something he's done, but because of something he hasn't done - open his mouth.

 

It basically means we could prop a watermelon in an Armani suit in front of a camera and it'd be polling nearly as well as Hillary Clinton.

 

As long as they have an R or a D beside their name. God forbid if someone without an R or a D tries to actually be sensible and run. Roughly 90% of the country will just say..."Oh...he doesn't have a chance.".

 

 

You're right. But that's because generations of Americans have grown up thinking Democrats & Republicans are "the government." That's our fault as much as anything.

 

That's why I'm voting Johnson this year. Screw 'em all. I'm done with these parties.

 

 

Knapp, totally appreciate your thoughts here and I too, am troubled that we are between a rock and a hard place, but you and I both know, Johnson don't have a chance in heck to win the election, thus, all of us who have the same type of thought process, would be wasting our vote and we will ultimately end up with one of the two that we have zero confidence in, running our country.

 

Voting the lesser of two evils here, is not a winning strategy either!

 

And there we are....

 

 

That didn't take long.

[TAKODA]

 

 

 

 

 

 

Trump seems to be getting a surge lately probably due to the email decision and him not doing anything overly stupid that last week or so. I expect to see his numbers go up over the next couple weeks due to the convention bounce. But I think that Hillary will gain all/most of it back after the D convention.

We are basically in a worthless dead period in the campaign. Really, the only news worthy items that have happened in the last few weeks is the email decision and Trump's soap opera VP search.

 

In other words, Trump hasn't opened his mouth up much lately to be able to spew idiotic stuff that can be thrown back at him.

 

I suspect once the conventions happen and things get cranked back up, he won't be able to help himself and it will be back to business as usual.

 

 

Which, if you think about it, is really damning against Clinton. Trump has a bump in the polls right now not because of something he's done, but because of something he hasn't done - open his mouth.

 

It basically means we could prop a watermelon in an Armani suit in front of a camera and it'd be polling nearly as well as Hillary Clinton.

 

As long as they have an R or a D beside their name. God forbid if someone without an R or a D tries to actually be sensible and run. Roughly 90% of the country will just say..."Oh...he doesn't have a chance.".

 

 

You're right. But that's because generations of Americans have grown up thinking Democrats & Republicans are "the government." That's our fault as much as anything.

 

That's why I'm voting Johnson this year. Screw 'em all. I'm done with these parties.

 

 

Knapp, totally appreciate your thoughts here and I too, am troubled that we are between a rock and a hard place, but you and I both know, Johnson don't have a chance in heck to win the election, thus, all of us who have the same type of thought process, would be wasting our vote and we will ultimately end up with one of the two that we have zero confidence in, running our country.

 

Voting the lesser of two evils here, is not a winning strategy either!

 

And there we are....

 

 

That didn't take long.

 

 

Tell me I am wrong?

[BigRedBuster]

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Trump seems to be getting a surge lately probably due to the email decision and him not doing anything overly stupid that last week or so. I expect to see his numbers go up over the next couple weeks due to the convention bounce. But I think that Hillary will gain all/most of it back after the D convention.

We are basically in a worthless dead period in the campaign. Really, the only news worthy items that have happened in the last few weeks is the email decision and Trump's soap opera VP search.

 

In other words, Trump hasn't opened his mouth up much lately to be able to spew idiotic stuff that can be thrown back at him.

 

I suspect once the conventions happen and things get cranked back up, he won't be able to help himself and it will be back to business as usual.

 

 

Which, if you think about it, is really damning against Clinton. Trump has a bump in the polls right now not because of something he's done, but because of something he hasn't done - open his mouth.

 

It basically means we could prop a watermelon in an Armani suit in front of a camera and it'd be polling nearly as well as Hillary Clinton.

 

As long as they have an R or a D beside their name. God forbid if someone without an R or a D tries to actually be sensible and run. Roughly 90% of the country will just say..."Oh...he doesn't have a chance.".

 

 

You're right. But that's because generations of Americans have grown up thinking Democrats & Republicans are "the government." That's our fault as much as anything.

 

That's why I'm voting Johnson this year. Screw 'em all. I'm done with these parties.

 

 

Knapp, totally appreciate your thoughts here and I too, am troubled that we are between a rock and a hard place, but you and I both know, Johnson don't have a chance in heck to win the election, thus, all of us who have the same type of thought process, would be wasting our vote and we will ultimately end up with one of the two that we have zero confidence in, running our country.

 

Voting the lesser of two evils here, is not a winning strategy either!

 

And there we are....

 

 

That didn't take long.

 

 

Tell me I am wrong?

 

You would be wrong if people would stop saying.."I'm not voting for him because he doesn't have a chance"

[TAKODA]

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Trump seems to be getting a surge lately probably due to the email decision and him not doing anything overly stupid that last week or so. I expect to see his numbers go up over the next couple weeks due to the convention bounce. But I think that Hillary will gain all/most of it back after the D convention.

We are basically in a worthless dead period in the campaign. Really, the only news worthy items that have happened in the last few weeks is the email decision and Trump's soap opera VP search.

 

In other words, Trump hasn't opened his mouth up much lately to be able to spew idiotic stuff that can be thrown back at him.

 

I suspect once the conventions happen and things get cranked back up, he won't be able to help himself and it will be back to business as usual.

 

 

Which, if you think about it, is really damning against Clinton. Trump has a bump in the polls right now not because of something he's done, but because of something he hasn't done - open his mouth.

 

It basically means we could prop a watermelon in an Armani suit in front of a camera and it'd be polling nearly as well as Hillary Clinton.

 

As long as they have an R or a D beside their name. God forbid if someone without an R or a D tries to actually be sensible and run. Roughly 90% of the country will just say..."Oh...he doesn't have a chance.".

 

 

You're right. But that's because generations of Americans have grown up thinking Democrats & Republicans are "the government." That's our fault as much as anything.

 

That's why I'm voting Johnson this year. Screw 'em all. I'm done with these parties.

 

 

Knapp, totally appreciate your thoughts here and I too, am troubled that we are between a rock and a hard place, but you and I both know, Johnson don't have a chance in heck to win the election, thus, all of us who have the same type of thought process, would be wasting our vote and we will ultimately end up with one of the two that we have zero confidence in, running our country.

 

Voting the lesser of two evils here, is not a winning strategy either!

 

And there we are....

 

 

That didn't take long.

 

 

Tell me I am wrong?

 

You would be wrong if people would stop saying.."I'm not voting for him because he doesn't have a chance"

 

 

The only legitimate chance Johnson could win is, if the other two candidates did not get enough electoral votes to secure the white house, and then, only then, the Presidential appointment would be in the hands of The House of Representatives.

[knapplc]

I shouldn't be voting for a candidate specifically because they could win. I should be voting for the candidate who best represents what I want in that office. If that's Johnson, regardless of his chances of wining, that's who I should vote for.

[BigRedBuster]

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Trump seems to be getting a surge lately probably due to the email decision and him not doing anything overly stupid that last week or so. I expect to see his numbers go up over the next couple weeks due to the convention bounce. But I think that Hillary will gain all/most of it back after the D convention.

We are basically in a worthless dead period in the campaign. Really, the only news worthy items that have happened in the last few weeks is the email decision and Trump's soap opera VP search.

 

In other words, Trump hasn't opened his mouth up much lately to be able to spew idiotic stuff that can be thrown back at him.

 

I suspect once the conventions happen and things get cranked back up, he won't be able to help himself and it will be back to business as usual.

 

 

Which, if you think about it, is really damning against Clinton. Trump has a bump in the polls right now not because of something he's done, but because of something he hasn't done - open his mouth.

 

It basically means we could prop a watermelon in an Armani suit in front of a camera and it'd be polling nearly as well as Hillary Clinton.

 

As long as they have an R or a D beside their name. God forbid if someone without an R or a D tries to actually be sensible and run. Roughly 90% of the country will just say..."Oh...he doesn't have a chance.".

 

 

You're right. But that's because generations of Americans have grown up thinking Democrats & Republicans are "the government." That's our fault as much as anything.

 

That's why I'm voting Johnson this year. Screw 'em all. I'm done with these parties.

 

 

Knapp, totally appreciate your thoughts here and I too, am troubled that we are between a rock and a hard place, but you and I both know, Johnson don't have a chance in heck to win the election, thus, all of us who have the same type of thought process, would be wasting our vote and we will ultimately end up with one of the two that we have zero confidence in, running our country.

 

Voting the lesser of two evils here, is not a winning strategy either!

 

And there we are....

 

 

That didn't take long.

 

 

Tell me I am wrong?

 

You would be wrong if people would stop saying.."I'm not voting for him because he doesn't have a chance"

 

 

The only legitimate chance Johnson could win is, if the other two candidates did not get enough electoral votes to secure the white house, and then, only then, the Presidential appointment would be in the hands of The House of Representatives.

 

Explain why that is.

[BigRedBuster]

I shouldn't be voting for a candidate specifically because they could win. I should be voting for the candidate who best represents what I want in that office. If that's Johnson, regardless of his chances of wining, that's who I should vote for.

Agree...

 

I refuse to vote for someone just because I think they have a chance to win. Nominate someone who is worthy of a vote and they might get my vote.

 

Until then, the Rs and Ds can go pound sand.

[TAKODA]

I shouldn't be voting for a candidate specifically because they could win. I should be voting for the candidate who best represents what I want in that office. If that's Johnson, regardless of his chances of wining, that's who I should vote for.

 

You vote your conscious Knapp! I would not condemn anyone that did/does so, and in fact, this is the way it is supposed to be.

 

Q. If this was a life and death decision, weighing risk on the outcome, how would that affect your vote?

[TGHusker]

There are 100 days between the end of the Conventions and the Election. That's longer than the duration of nearly every other country's entire election process. And we've been at it almost a year already.

 

I'll vote for any candidate who orders an end to this year-plus long process and mandates a two-month campaign season, start-to-finish.

amen to that. My goodness- 2 years of this and the Brits do it in 2 months. It can't be that hard to condense the process.

1 Create an open filing period ( Candidates have 45 days to file - Within this period they are allowed to open their exploratory committee and then file)

2. 45 days for Debates and at large campaigning

3. Create 5 max primary dates: (one every 2 weeks (thus a 70 day process) Alternate the 5 voting regions every election cycle so that the NE doesn't always go first (sorry Iowa and NH - your "1st in the country gig is over).

NE (from Maine to DC and west to PA and WVA, also Puerto Rico)

South (Virginia - LA,) Great Plains (ND to Texas, including Min, Iowa, Mo,)

Great Lakes ( Indiana, Ill, Mich, Ohio, Wisc)

West: Everyone else

4. National Conventions - the same month 2 weeks apart (30 process including the convention weeks)

5 60 day max campaign period and debates after the nomination conventions.

 

Starting wt the 2nd Tuesday in November for the GE and working backwards that is 250 days: From Nov 8 that would place us at March 9th to start the process. Even this seems long but it would cut out all of the exploratory period and debates from June (or earlier) of the previous year to March of the current year.

[knapplc]

 

I shouldn't be voting for a candidate specifically because they could win. I should be voting for the candidate who best represents what I want in that office. If that's Johnson, regardless of his chances of wining, that's who I should vote for.

 

You vote your conscious Knapp! I would not condemn anyone that did/does so, and in fact, this is the way it is supposed to be.

 

Q. If this was a life and death decision, weighing risk on the outcome, how would that affect your vote?

 

 

It is a life and death decision. These people have the power to create a Supreme Court that will directly affect my life. Their policies and laws dictate how I'm able to live, and in some cases, how I can die.

[BigRedBuster]

 

I shouldn't be voting for a candidate specifically because they could win. I should be voting for the candidate who best represents what I want in that office. If that's Johnson, regardless of his chances of wining, that's who I should vote for.

 

You vote your conscious Knapp! I would not condemn anyone that did/does so, and in fact, this is the way it is supposed to be.

 

Q. If this was a life and death decision, weighing risk on the outcome, how would that affect your vote?

 

This is EXACTLY why I can not and WILL not vote for either Clinton or Trump.....and why I think Johnson is the right person for the job now.

[TAKODA]

 

 

I shouldn't be voting for a candidate specifically because they could win. I should be voting for the candidate who best represents what I want in that office. If that's Johnson, regardless of his chances of wining, that's who I should vote for.

 

You vote your conscious Knapp! I would not condemn anyone that did/does so, and in fact, this is the way it is supposed to be.

 

Q. If this was a life and death decision, weighing risk on the outcome, how would that affect your vote?

 

 

It is a life and death decision. These people have the power to create a Supreme Court that will directly affect my life. Their policies and laws dictate how I'm able to live, and in some cases, how I can die.

 

 

Very good!

 

Me personally, I am having an extremely difficult time looking at any of them and their platforms, and saying, this or that candidate represents whats best for my children's future.

 

It's like being forced to chose my preferred way to die and my choices are, firing squad, ran over by a tank, or jump out of an airplane without a parachute.