The General Election

[BigRedBuster]

[QMany]

[Red Five]

[Red Five]

Also at 0% in Ohio

 

[zoogs]

I thought you were joking. That's really surprising. Knowing nothing about the methodology, NBC/WSJ makes it sound credible. But really, how can that be?

[cm husker]

I thought you were joking. That's really surprising. Knowing nothing about the methodology, NBC/WSJ makes it sound credible. But really, how can that be?

There's not a single dumb black voter in PA?

 

Sorry- too easy.

[BigRedBuster]

[Moiraine]

I thought you were joking. That's really surprising. Knowing nothing about the methodology, NBC/WSJ makes it sound credible. But really, how can that be?

Most polls are around 1000 people. They might have 70 Black people. I remember seeing a discussion like this not too far back here about how Romney got 0% of the Black vote in one county and it was explained that it wasn't a significant result. Some Republicans were using it as proof of cheating.

 

Now if you have 5,000 Black people and 0 vote for Trump, that's probably significant.

 

What I still don't comprehend is why Clinton got so much more of the Black vote than Sanders.

[zoogs]

What I still don't comprehend is why Clinton got so much more of the Black vote than Sanders.

Good points. I read something about that recently, which I think captured the limitations of the Sanders campaign quite well:

http://fusion.net/story/323539/how-bernie-sanders-lost-black-voters/

 

In summary, it's the oft-repeated criticsm everything for Bernie is filtered through one lens: money. Money in politics explained all ills, and taking it out was the cure-all revolution. Every injustice was a symptom of wealth disparity. I mean, in some ways it's not a completely bad argument, but it's also a limited one.

[Moiraine]

For the hell of it, related to the 0% Trump votes from Blacks, I looked up the Romney/Obama vote in Ohio.

 

96% of Black voters voted for Obama. So 4% voted for someone else. I dunno how many people were in the Ohio poll but I'm going to assume 1000 with 130 Black people.

 

 

The 95% confidence interval for that is: 1.26% to 8.75% of Black voters voting for someone other than Clinton.

 

This is obviously a different election but it just shows that the 0% isn't crazy. The article says 90% voted for Clinton and 0% for Trump. So those 10% are picking someone else.

[BigRedBuster]

[Danny Bateman]

 

What I still don't comprehend is why Clinton got so much more of the Black vote than Sanders.

Good points. I read something about that recently, which I think captured the limitations of the Sanders campaign quite well:

http://fusion.net/story/323539/how-bernie-sanders-lost-black-voters/

 

In summary, it's the oft-repeated criticsm everything for Bernie is filtered through one lens: money. Money in politics explained all ills, and taking it out was the cure-all revolution. Every injustice was a symptom of wealth disparity. I mean, in some ways it's not a completely bad argument, but it's also a limited one.

 

 

That's a pretty apt description of what happened. To some, Bernie's genuine belief that he can distill a complex issue like institutional racial inequality and racism down to economic inequality was seen as a failure to truly immerse himself in the issues facing black Americans today. He's never really had to do so as an elected official in lily-white Vermont. It certainly didn't help that there were reports of what I assume to be young and impressionable Sanders supporters talking down to AAs in the vein of "If you just KNEW about Bernie, you'd love him! You just need more education."

 

I can only imagine how turned off and disinterested I would be if I heard that as a black American.

 

I got a couple of very lengthy but very insightful Reddit messages describing the fondness by the AA community for the Clintons as well. Essentially, I was told that black Americans really feel that the Clintons have actually had their back. I was told, verbatim, that they've heard "lots of politicians come and make promises to us and not deliver, but the Clintons actually did."

 

They didn't call him the first black president for no reason.

[Moiraine]

I've been thinking about Clinton and the perjury investigation. I don't want it to come to anything before the election because I don't want Trump to win, but I was thinking I don't care that much if she gets elected then impeached as long as her VP is good.

[NM11046]

Somebody had a great idea ...

 

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2016/07/14/a-small-pet-business-from-vermont-is-selling-huge-numbers-of-donald-trump-chew-toys/

[TGHusker]

Shock Poll Rasmussen has Trump up by 6 in nationwide, likely voters poll.

 

Even CBS/NY Times has them tied nationally now. Erasing Clinton's 6 pt lead last month in their poll:

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/07/15/us/politics/hillary-clinton-donald-trump-poll.html?_r=0

 

 

 

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2016/white_house_watch

 

Clinton has cited her experience as a U.S. senator and secretary of State as making her more qualified for the presidency than Trump who has spent his life in private business. But voters now rate Clinton and Trump equally when it comes to their preparedness for the White House. That’s a noticeable shift in Trump’s favor from April when voters were nearly twice as likely to view Clinton as better qualified than her GOP opponent.

Trump now has the support of 80% of Republicans and 13% of Democrats. Clinton earns just 72% of the Democratic vote and picks up five percent (5%) of Republicans. Among voters not affiliated with either major party, Trump leads by 13 points, but 27% of these voters either like another candidate or are undecided.

Perhaps more troubling for Clinton is that she now trails by 17 points among white voters after the murder last week of five white policemen in Dallas which Trump has attributed to anti-police rhetoric by President Obama, Clinton and others. This is a noticeably wider gap than we have seen previously, while her support among black and other minority voters remains unchanged.

 

The survey of 1,000 Likely Voters was conducted on July 12-13, 2016 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

Democrats, however, are much more confident than Republicans that their presidential nominee will help their congressional candidates win in November.

Clinton is now the candidate with the bigger gender gap problem. She leads by eight points among women voters, but Trump posts a 21-point lead among men.

The Republican continues to lead among those 40 and over, but the candidates are now tied among younger voters. Still, those under 40 are also far more likely than their elders to like another candidate or be undecided.

Trump leads among voters in all income groups now except those who earn under $30,000 a year.

As recently as last week, Trump and Clinton were running neck-and-neck if Libertarian candidate Gary Johnson was added to the ballot.

Clinton was endorsed this week by her primary rival, Senator Bernie Sanders. Forty-four percent (44%) of Likely Democratic Voters told Rasmussen Reports late last month that they would vote for Sanders if he was on the ballot this November, but just 24% said they were more likely to vote for Clinton because of Sanders’ endorsement.

Fifty-five percent (55%) of whites and 52% of other minority voters now think there is a war on police in America, but only 31% of blacks agree. However, 60% of all voters think comments critical of the police made by some politicians make it more dangerous for police officers to do their job.

Democrats are a lot more enthusiastic about Clinton’s plan for so-called “free” college than other Americans are, but all agree that taxpayers will be the ones who pick up the tab.

An ABC News survey this week confirmed what Rasmussen Reports first reported a week ago: Most voters disagree with the FBI’s decision not to seek a felony indictment of Clinton for mishandling classified information while serving as secretary of State.