The General Election

[Danny Bateman]

 

($5M to vet charity of choice)

 

He won't do it.

[mrandyk]

Well it looks like the fallout from Hillary getting off without charges for for her lies and deceptions is beginning to show up in the polls. Hillary's lead in one national poll where she was up big a couple weeks ago is down to 3 points, and Trump has now taken a 2 point lead in Iowa and a 5-point lead in Florida.

 

http://www.newsmax.com/Politics/NBC-Poll-Clinton-Lead/2016/07/12/id/738198/

 

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/fl/florida_trump_vs_clinton-5635.html

 

As I've said many times before, these polls will bounce back and forth until labor day where I suspect you will see more consistent polling with smaller swings.

Fallout from getting off without charges? As opposed to her being charged and then surging in the polls? Nothing has realistically changed because everyone knew charges weren't coming.

[AR Husker Fan]

Clinton extends lead over Trump to 13 points: Reuters/Ipsos

Democratic presidential hopeful Hillary Clinton extended her lead over Republican rival Donald Trump to 13 percentage points in a Reuters/Ipsos opinion poll released on Tuesday, up from 10 points at the end of last week.

The July 8-12 poll showed 46 percent of likely voters supported Clinton, the former secretary of state, while 33 percent supported Trump, a celebrity real estate developer. Another 21 percent did not support either candidate.

That compared with 45 percent who supported Clinton and 35 percent who supported Trump in the five days to July 8.

[cm husker]

Could this election result in records for lowest turnout and biggest % landslide?

[huKSer]

 

Clinton extends lead over Trump to 13 points: Reuters/Ipsos

 

Democratic presidential hopeful Hillary Clinton extended her lead over Republican rival Donald Trump to 13 percentage points in a Reuters/Ipsos opinion poll released on Tuesday, up from 10 points at the end of last week.

 

The July 8-12 poll showed 46 percent of likely voters supported Clinton, the former secretary of state, while 33 percent supported Trump, a celebrity real estate developer. Another 21 percent did not support either candidate.

 

That compared with 45 percent who supported Clinton and 35 percent who supported Trump in the five days to July 8.

 

It has a credibility interval, a measure of accuracy, of 3 percentage points.

 

So statistically no change.

[Moiraine]

 

 

Clinton extends lead over Trump to 13 points: Reuters/Ipsos

 

Democratic presidential hopeful Hillary Clinton extended her lead over Republican rival Donald Trump to 13 percentage points in a Reuters/Ipsos opinion poll released on Tuesday, up from 10 points at the end of last week.

 

The July 8-12 poll showed 46 percent of likely voters supported Clinton, the former secretary of state, while 33 percent supported Trump, a celebrity real estate developer. Another 21 percent did not support either candidate.

 

That compared with 45 percent who supported Clinton and 35 percent who supported Trump in the five days to July 8.

 

It has a credibility interval, a measure of accuracy, of 3 percentage points.

 

So statistically no change.

 

 

Overlapping credible or confidence intervals for two statistics does not mean the two statistics are not statistically different.

 

Here's a link in case you're curious:

 

https://www.cscu.cornell.edu/news/statnews/stnews73.pdf

 

I'm fairly certain credible intervals are exactly the same in this regard. They're just created with different approaches; frequentist vs Bayesian

[HuskerNation1]

 

Well it looks like the fallout from Hillary getting off without charges for for her lies and deceptions is beginning to show up in the polls. Hillary's lead in one national poll where she was up big a couple weeks ago is down to 3 points, and Trump has now taken a 2 point lead in Iowa and a 5-point lead in Florida.

 

http://www.newsmax.com/Politics/NBC-Poll-Clinton-Lead/2016/07/12/id/738198/

 

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/fl/florida_trump_vs_clinton-5635.html

 

As I've said many times before, these polls will bounce back and forth until labor day where I suspect you will see more consistent polling with smaller swings.

Fallout from getting off without charges? As opposed to her being charged and then surging in the polls? Nothing has realistically changed because everyone knew charges weren't coming.

 

 

I honestly think voters will become more engaged to vote against her if they feel the "system" is rigged and let her off the hook, where an everyday American would not have received such special treatment. Just as Trump had a bad couple weeks in early June, Hillary has had a bad couple weeks recently. The latest Rasmussen poll shows Trump and Hillary now tied regarding the question on who is most qualified to be POTUS.

 

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2016/voters_question_clinton_s_qualifications_now_rate_trump_equal

 

The swing states continue to remain tight.

 

http://dailycaller.com/2016/07/12/polling-in-the-key-battleground-states-show-a-tight-election/

[zoogs]

Overlapping credible or confidence intervals for two statistics does not mean the two statistics are not statistically different.

 

Here's a link in case you're curious:

 

https://www.cscu.cornell.edu/news/statnews/stnews73.pdf

 

I'm fairly certain credible intervals are exactly the same in this regard. They're just created with different approaches; frequentist vs Bayesian

Oh, man. Things just got real in here.

 

Nice

[HuskerNation1]

Whoa..new polling out this morning confirms a Trump surge in key swing states. Its the second poll in as many days showing him with the lead in Florida. He and Hillary are tied in Ohio, and Trump has a 2 point lead in Pennsylvania. When Johnson and Stein are added in his lead jumps to 6 points in PA

 

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/pa/pennsylvania_trump_vs_clinton-5633.html

[Moiraine]

Whoa..new polling out this morning confirms a Trump surge in key swing states. Its the second poll in as many days showing him with the lead in Florida. He and Hillary are tied in Ohio, and Trump has a 2 point lead in Pennsylvania.

 

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/pa/pennsylvania_trump_vs_clinton-5633.html

I was just looking at that. She'll need to do something to not be defined by the e-mail stuff.

[knapplc]

They're just created with different approaches; frequentist vs Bayesian

Kinda surprised this isn't flagged and removed. There's no call for this kind of language in these forums.

[HuskerNation1]

 

Whoa..new polling out this morning confirms a Trump surge in key swing states. Its the second poll in as many days showing him with the lead in Florida. He and Hillary are tied in Ohio, and Trump has a 2 point lead in Pennsylvania.

 

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/pa/pennsylvania_trump_vs_clinton-5633.html

I was just looking at that. She'll need to do something to not be defined by the e-mail stuff.

Heres her challenge. Both Trump and Hillary have character flaws, but Hillarys challenge is much greater. Trumps problem is that his ego is too high and he has not appeared Presidential which have given voters concerns. So his challenge is to stop the outlandish comments and convince enough voters that he passes the "presidential" test. Hillarys main liability is that voters dont trust her and havent for a long time. Trust is not something that is easily correctable, especially in a small window of a few months. Her best hope is to go negative on Trump and hope he returns to the out of control candidate we saw in the primary season. However, he has greatly improved on the stump and in interviews Ive seen thr past few weeks and needs to be giving his new campaign advisor a huge raise.

[BigRedBuster]

 

 

Whoa..new polling out this morning confirms a Trump surge in key swing states. Its the second poll in as many days showing him with the lead in Florida. He and Hillary are tied in Ohio, and Trump has a 2 point lead in Pennsylvania.

 

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/pa/pennsylvania_trump_vs_clinton-5633.html

I was just looking at that. She'll need to do something to not be defined by the e-mail stuff.

Heres her challenge. Both Trump and Hillary have character flaws, but Hillarys challenge is much greater. Trumps problem is that his ego is too high and he has not appeared Presidential which have given voters concerns. So his challenge is to stop the outlandish comments and convince enough voters that he passes the "presidential" test. Hillarys main liability is that voters dont trust her and havent for a long time. Trust is not something that is easily correctable, especially in a small window of a few months. Her best hope is to go negative on Trump and hope he returns to the out of control candidate we saw in the primary season. However, he has greatly improved on the stump and in interviews Ive seen thr past few weeks and needs to be giving his new campaign advisor a huge raise.

 

He's not doing a very good job when he is openly telling Supreme Court Justices they need to resign.

 

Maybe the 12th article of the constitution outlines that job description for the President.

[HuskerNation1]

If you are nitpicking at his response to Ginsburg that shows he is coming along. For the left leaning Washington Post to call out Ginsburg for openly airing her political views as a sitting justice demonstrates who is really out of line on this topic.

 

https://www.washingtonpost.com/posteverything/wp/2016/07/12/justice-ruth-bader-ginsburg-has-crossed-way-way-over-the-line/

[BigRedBuster]

 

($5M to vet charity of choice)

 

He won't do it.

I love it.

 

Everyone knows the excuse of the IRS audit is total BS.