commando Posted May 25, 2018 Share Posted May 25, 2018 2 hours ago, Clifford Franklin said: I'm perplexed by the shifting approval ratings. I'm not going freak out about polling for midterms just yet, but if we as a nation decide to leave things the same or elect more Republicans I'll admit I have no idea what's going on. At that point I'd just have to think people would rather be entertained than have competent leadership. the right wing brainwashing from fox and friends and rush and company is working. Link to comment
Danny Bateman Posted May 26, 2018 Share Posted May 26, 2018 1 hour ago, commando said: the right wing brainwashing from fox and friends and rush and company is working. On whom, though? I personally don't think the people who swallow Fox News hook line & sinker are large enough in number to show this kind of shift. Religious Fox News consumers already wanted more Republicans in Congress. The shift would have to denote movement among some other groups. Independents? Conservatives/Rs who don't watch Fox News? Dems? I can't figure it out. Maybe people just really love tax cuts that don't really help them all that much or cracking down on peaceful immigrants or how Republican rhetoric makes them feel. All I know is if the Republican majority in Congress grows after this mess, Baby Boomers, white evangelicals, clueless rubes, Trumpers etc. are screwing our country and it sucks way worse than I thought it did. Link to comment
Moiraine Posted May 26, 2018 Share Posted May 26, 2018 2 minutes ago, Clifford Franklin said: On whom, though? I personally don't think the people who swallow Fox News hook line & sinker are large enough in number to show this kind of shift. Religious Fox News consumers already wanted more Republicans in Congress. The shift would have to denote movement among some other groups. Independents? Conservatives/Rs who don't watch Fox News? Dems? I can't figure it out. Maybe people just really love tax cuts that don't really help them all that much or cracking down on peaceful immigrants or how Republican rhetoric makes them feel. All I know is if the Republican majority in Congress grows after this mess, Baby Boomers, white evangelicals, clueless rubes, Trumpers etc. are screwing our country and it sucks way worse than I thought it did. Can you link where you're seeing the polling on this? I'm just curious because I've seen a couple articles talking about how the Democrat lead has shrunk down a lot, but if you look at this 538 graph, the huge gap in December was just a blip. https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/congress-generic-ballot-polls/?ex_cid=rrpromo The approval rating has gone up but that doesn't mean it'll continue to do so: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/trump-approval-ratings/?ex_cid=rrpromo It is still disheartening that these are the numbers though. Those gaps should be a lot wider. Link to comment
Danny Bateman Posted May 26, 2018 Share Posted May 26, 2018 39 minutes ago, Moiraine said: Can you link where you're seeing the polling on this? I'm just curious because I've seen a couple articles talking about how the Democrat lead has shrunk down a lot, but if you look at this 538 graph, the huge gap in December was just a blip. https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/congress-generic-ballot-polls/?ex_cid=rrpromo The approval rating has gone up but that doesn't mean it'll continue to do so: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/trump-approval-ratings/?ex_cid=rrpromo It is still disheartening that these are the numbers though. Those gaps should be a lot wider. It's not really based on polling, it's mostly just me ranting about one data point, which I'm sure you as a statistician would tell me is a no no. I agree, we can be fairly sure the average remains at a +6 or +7 D generic ballot, and Trump has an pretty stable 38 to 43 or so percent approval rating. The poll itself could be an outlier. It could have a funky sample by chance, couldn't it? Maybe they just happened to sample a high number of pro-GOP voters. Or it could be noise that is a blip like that December margin you mentioned. Still, I can't think of a single solitary reason people would suddenly be encouraged by the Congressional GOP recently. Can you? Probably much ado about nothing. They only led in that poll for registered voters, which IIRC is typically less predictive than likely voters. It's since rebounded to D +7 through today. You can play around with their filters here, kind of neat: Link to comment
Moiraine Posted May 26, 2018 Share Posted May 26, 2018 4 minutes ago, Clifford Franklin said: It's not really based on polling, it's mostly just me ranting about one data point, which I'm sure you as a statistician would tell me is a no no. I agree, we can be fairly sure the average remains at a +6 or +7 D generic ballot, and Trump has an pretty stable 38 to 43 or so percent approval rating. The poll itself could be an outlier. It could have a funky sample by chance, couldn't it? Maybe they just happened to sample a high number of pro-GOP voters. Or it could be noise that is a blip like that December margin you mentioned. Still, I can't think of a single solitary reason people would suddenly be encouraged by the Congressional GOP recently. Can you? Probably much ado about nothing. They only led in that poll for registered voters, which IIRC is typically less predictive than likely voters. It's since rebounded to D +7 through today. You can play around with their filters here, kind of neat: Gotcha. Ya, who knows. It definitely shouldn't be looking as close as it is. Link to comment
ZRod Posted May 26, 2018 Share Posted May 26, 2018 Why am I not hearing anything about this on the news? Link to comment
ZRod Posted May 27, 2018 Share Posted May 27, 2018 8 hours ago, BigRedBuster said: He's already provided false testimony based on the Trump tower meeting, so why hasn't anything been done? They setup the meeting on the pretense of getting dirt on the Clinton Campaign from Russian Nationals... 1 Link to comment
TGHusker Posted May 29, 2018 Share Posted May 29, 2018 Interesting article. Expect this to not be a dull summer. https://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2018/05/29/bob-mueller-trump-rosenstein-fired-218549 a couple of quotes Quote Special Counsel Robert Mueller may well be in the final stages of wrapping up his principal investigation. Last week, I argued here in Politico that Mueller will want to avoid interfering with the November midterms, and so will try to conclude by July or August. On this one we can believe Trump’s new lawyer, former prosecutor and New York mayor Rudy Giuliani, who claims Mueller’s target is September 1. How will Mueller wrap up his investigation? What will he produce? And then – what can we expect from the other players in this saga: Deputy Attorney General Rod Rosenstein, President Trump and his lawyers, and the Republican and Democratic leaders in Congress? Quote Rosenstein’s move to release the Mueller report will lead to his firing and perhaps another Saturday Night Massacre. President Trump is unlikely to sit by and simply watch Rosenstein move forward with a potentially explosive report. Trump and his lawyers will exert every conceivable pressure on the deputy attorney general. Their goal will be to contain the report; to redact and reduce it; and, at the very least, to delay any release until after the midterm elections. Link to comment
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