The 2020 Presidential Election - Convention & General Election

[knapplc]

3 minutes ago, RedDenver said:

nobody is scared of Biden, politically or otherwise.

 

Trump is, very obviously.

 

4 minutes ago, Danny Bateman said:

I'd have united behind, worked for, voted for any of those people.

 

Same. It's unfortunate that this isn't a universal attitude among those opposed to the America Trump represents.

[RedDenver]

5 minutes ago, Danny Bateman said:

 

 

Edit: From this article: Biden consolidates support, but trails badly in enthusiasm: Poll

[commando]

1 minute ago, RedDenver said:

a not so enthused vote for biden counts as much as an very enthused vote does.

[Danny Bateman]

2 minutes ago, RedDenver said:

 

Edit: From this article: Biden consolidates support, but trails badly in enthusiasm: Poll

 

That's far astray from the point you made. And I've already stated enthusiasm is not a metric I'm concerned with at this point.

[teachercd]

No one is scared of Biden...if they were scared of him his own party would not be thinking of ways to give him the boot at the last second.

[FrantzHardySwag]

3 minutes ago, RedDenver said:

 

Edit: From this article: Biden consolidates support, but trails badly in enthusiasm: Poll

Sanders/Trump fired up their base - a small segment of the voter pool. Biden has solidly gained the support across many groups, you know, the majority. This is the fatal mistake Sanders make, I'd rather have the majority be meh about voting for my candidate, then have the minority be SUPER FIRED UP about voting for my candidate. 

[RedDenver]

1 minute ago, commando said:

a not so enthused vote for biden counts as much as an very enthused vote does.

Yep, it's why I said the anti-Trump vote could be what gets Biden the win.

 

Just now, Danny Bateman said:

 

That's far astray from the point you made. And I've already stated enthusiasm is not a metric I'm concerned with at this point.

It is? It shows Biden supporters aren't that excited to vote for him, which was my point.

 

I'm also not sure how much that metric matters, but it seems to mirror Hillary in 2016 and Kerry in 2004.

[Danny Bateman]

1 minute ago, RedDenver said:

Yep, it's why I said the anti-Trump vote could be what gets Biden the win.

 

It is? It shows Biden supporters aren't that excited to vote for him, which was my point.

 

I'm also not sure how much that metric matters, but it seems to mirror Hillary in 2016 and Kerry in 2004.

 

I know you think Biden is Kerry v2.0 but I disagree. Enthusiasm will come up naturally as a consequence of us not being quagmired in an unprecedented public health crisis and as the actual election nears.

 

You said no one is afraid of Biden. It's been thoroughly reported that that's not true.

[RedDenver]

Just now, Danny Bateman said:

 

I know you think Biden is Kerry v2.0 but I disagree. Enthusiasm will come up naturally as a consequence of us not being quagmired in an unprecedented public health crisis and as the actual election nears.

It's certainly possible. Biden has been reaching out to progressives, so maybe he'll give me something to vote for instead of just something I'll be voting against.

 

Just now, Danny Bateman said:

You said no one is afraid of Biden. It's been thoroughly reported that that's not true.

I must have missed that or forgotten. Can you link some articles?

[teachercd]

4 minutes ago, Danny Bateman said:

 

I know you think Biden is Kerry v2.0 but I disagree. Enthusiasm will come up naturally as a consequence of us not being quagmired in an unprecedented public health crisis and as the actual election nears.

 

You said no one is afraid of Biden. It's been thoroughly reported that that's not true.

What do you mean "afraid", like, as in he has a good chance of winning?

I agree with that.

 

But is that what you mean when you say they are afraid of him?

[Danny Bateman]

1 minute ago, teachercd said:

What do you mean "afraid", like, as in he has a good chance of winning?

I agree with that.

 

But is that what you mean when you say they are afraid of him?

 

No, I mean if you put Trump and Biden in shorts and gloves and step them into the ring with each other, Biden would knock the bigger man's block off like Rocky did to Drago.

 

The reason we haven't been seeing much of Joe in the past couple months is because he's been secretly training in the mountains of the Russian wilderness.

[teachercd]

Just now, Danny Bateman said:

 

No, I mean if you put Trump and Biden in shorts and gloves and step them into the ring with each other, Biden would knock the bigger man's block off like Rocky did to Drago.

 

The reason we haven't been seeing much of Joe in the past couple months is because he's been secretly training in the mountains of the Russian wilderness.

Hahah!  I would totally love to see those two old men fight!

 

God that cracked me up!  Training in the mountains!  

[FrantzHardySwag]

From the Hill, in reference to enthusiasm. 

 

Voter turnout in the Democratic presidential primaries in Michigan, Missouri and Mississippi reached its highest levels in more than a decade on Tuesday.

The surge in turnout was largely driven by black voters, moderates and suburbanites, who have come out in force in recent weeks to the benefit of former Vice President Joe Biden.

That trend began in South Carolina late last month and has served to lift Biden’s campaign up from the brink of collapse and deliver him a spate of wins in the primary race.

In Michigan, Democratic turnout shattered records on Tuesday, with nearly 1.6 million voters casting ballots in the primary — a nearly 33 percent increase over 2016 when just shy of 1.2 million votes were recorded.

Biden beat Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) in Michigan, dealing a crushing blow to his chief progressive rival, who carried the state over Hillary Clinton four years ago.

For Democrats more broadly, the high turnout in Michigan was a promising development at a time when they are looking to recapture parts of the Midwest that they lost to President Trump in 2016.

Lavora Barnes, the chairwoman of the Michigan Democratic Party, labeled the surge in her state as a “turnout explosion” ignited by widespread opposition to Trump.

“From his attacks on health care and access to clean water to his failure to grow manufacturing jobs in our state, Donald Trump has broken promise after promise to Michigan and yesterday, Democratic voters showed they’re ready to hold him accountable for that fact,” Barnes said in a statement.

In Mississippi, turnout swelled by about 19 percent over 2016 levels, according to the most recent vote tallies. In Missouri, the increase in turnout was a more modest 5 percent over where it was four years ago. Biden carried both of those states on Tuesday.

Turnout in North Dakota’s Democratic caucuses quadrupled from 2016, surging from less than 3,400 four years ago to nearly 15,000 on Tuesday. The state implemented new caucus rules that effectively made it run more like a primary. 

The two other states that held primaries on Tuesday, Washington and Idaho, also saw massive increases in Democratic votes cast, though it’s difficult to compare turnout to prior years, because both states switched from caucuses to primary systems, which typically drive higher turnout.

 

[RedDenver]

2 minutes ago, FrantzHardySwag said:

From the Hill, in reference to enthusiasm. 

 

Voter turnout in the Democratic presidential primaries in Michigan, Missouri and Mississippi reached its highest levels in more than a decade on Tuesday.

The surge in turnout was largely driven by black voters, moderates and suburbanites, who have come out in force in recent weeks to the benefit of former Vice President Joe Biden.

That trend began in South Carolina late last month and has served to lift Biden’s campaign up from the brink of collapse and deliver him a spate of wins in the primary race.

In Michigan, Democratic turnout shattered records on Tuesday, with nearly 1.6 million voters casting ballots in the primary — a nearly 33 percent increase over 2016 when just shy of 1.2 million votes were recorded.

Biden beat Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) in Michigan, dealing a crushing blow to his chief progressive rival, who carried the state over Hillary Clinton four years ago.

For Democrats more broadly, the high turnout in Michigan was a promising development at a time when they are looking to recapture parts of the Midwest that they lost to President Trump in 2016.

Lavora Barnes, the chairwoman of the Michigan Democratic Party, labeled the surge in her state as a “turnout explosion” ignited by widespread opposition to Trump.

“From his attacks on health care and access to clean water to his failure to grow manufacturing jobs in our state, Donald Trump has broken promise after promise to Michigan and yesterday, Democratic voters showed they’re ready to hold him accountable for that fact,” Barnes said in a statement.

In Mississippi, turnout swelled by about 19 percent over 2016 levels, according to the most recent vote tallies. In Missouri, the increase in turnout was a more modest 5 percent over where it was four years ago. Biden carried both of those states on Tuesday.

Turnout in North Dakota’s Democratic caucuses quadrupled from 2016, surging from less than 3,400 four years ago to nearly 15,000 on Tuesday. The state implemented new caucus rules that effectively made it run more like a primary. 

The two other states that held primaries on Tuesday, Washington and Idaho, also saw massive increases in Democratic votes cast, though it’s difficult to compare turnout to prior years, because both states switched from caucuses to primary systems, which typically drive higher turnout.

 

Good points, turnout is what ultimately matters. Enthusiasm polling is only a proxy for how many will turnout on election day.

[Guy Chamberlin]

17 minutes ago, Danny Bateman said:

 

If you listen close, you'll notice the ooops is coming from the Trump campaign. And they're saying it because they're best efforts to avert a Biden nomination blew up in their faces.

 

Well, not really. The last six Dems all led Trump in the polls. Sanders and Biden just a few points ahead of the pack. They all would bring the same Not Trump credentials to the General, where Blue No Matter Who would supposedly kick in. 

 

If you're talking about Hunter Biden, that was not only an opportunity to smear Trump's most likely opponent at the time, it was a chance to smear all the hypocritical Dems who were hounding him about Russia and Ukraine. It didn't really blow up in their faces since they will gleefully revive Hunter Biden for the General. Trump and the GOP had a takedown narrative for every legitimate threat -- and my guess is Donald feared Mike Bloomberg more than anyone. 

 

Given the circumstances and options, was Joe Biden the best or safest bet for Democrats to rally around?  Yeah. I think so.

 

But having secured presumptive nominee status, only 24% of likely Dem voters are "very excited" about voting for Joe Biden, as opposed to 48% of Republican voters who are "very excited" about voting for Donald Trump. That's a serious enthusiasm gap. That's what I'm really talking about here. Biden only wins by driving the fence-sitters to the polls. 

 

And part of the "oops" comes from making the safe choice, then quickly realizing Joe Biden is shakier than you thought. 

 

It's still May. A lot can happen. But it's not all on Biden doubters. Joe Biden still needs to step up and earn it. I'm very open to that happening.