Year 2 Regression Under Frost

[SFW]

4 hours ago, lo country said:

Created another thread on this from a recent artcile, but will post it here.  Not a lot of definitive proof of improvement except for going 5-7 vs 4-8.......

 

From 2018 to 2019, NU gained fewer first downs, ran for fewer yards, threw for fewer yards, gained fewer yards per rush, gained fewer total yards, scored fewer touchdowns, scored fewer total points, made fewer field goals, gave up touchdowns more often in the red zone, scored less in the red zone, gave up more kickoff return yards and touchdowns and broke up fewer passes.

Some of that change was drastic, like the 17.8-percentage point decrease in field goal percentage or the 14-percentage point decrease in red zone scores or the 11 fewer pass breakups.

 

Other stats were almost identical....No where to go but up I guess....

 

Article here:

https://www.omaha.com/sports/college/huskers/football/huskers-left-with-more-questions-after-season-but-scott-frost/article_6076cc57-44d6-5023-b97c-87c9bde1ed9c.amp.html

 

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Except the strength of schedule was easy this year as compared last year.  
 

Next year’s schedule looks very tough and  the D will step back next year.  
 

The O should improve next season if we get better QB play, if not Frosts seat will begin to melt.

 

 

[HuskerNation1]

4 hours ago, lo country said:

Created another thread on this from a recent artcile, but will post it here.  Not a lot of definitive proof of improvement except for going 5-7 vs 4-8.......

 

From 2018 to 2019, NU gained fewer first downs, ran for fewer yards, threw for fewer yards, gained fewer yards per rush, gained fewer total yards, scored fewer touchdowns, scored fewer total points, made fewer field goals, gave up touchdowns more often in the red zone, scored less in the red zone, gave up more kickoff return yards and touchdowns and broke up fewer passes.

Some of that change was drastic, like the 17.8-percentage point decrease in field goal percentage or the 14-percentage point decrease in red zone scores or the 11 fewer pass breakups.

 

Other stats were almost identical....No where to go but up I guess....

 

Article here:

https://www.omaha.com/sports/college/huskers/football/huskers-left-with-more-questions-after-season-but-scott-frost/article_6076cc57-44d6-5023-b97c-87c9bde1ed9c.amp.html

 

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Here are some stats I compiled against common competition between 2018 and 2019. Our offensive production went way down in 2019 overall.

 

2018	Win/Loss	Points Scored	Points Allowed	Total Yards	Yards Allowed
Colorado	L	28	33	565	395
Illinois	W	54	35	606	509
Northwestern	L	31	34	482	487
Ohio State	L	31	36	450	481
Minnesota	W	53	28	659	474
Purdue	L	28	42	582	516
Wisconsin	L	24	41	518	533
Iowa	L	28	31	400	419
Average		35.6	35.6	552	485
2019	Win/Loss	Points Scored	Points Allowed	Total Yards	Yards Allowed
Colorado	L	31	34	469	464
Illinois	W	42	38	674	299
Northwestern	L	13	10	319	293
Ohio State	L	7	48	231	580
Minnesota	W	7	34	299	450
Purdue	L	27	31	375	449
Wisconsin	L	21	37	493	482
Iowa	L	24	27	284	324
Average		21.1	33.1	409	431

 

 

[lo country]

2 minutes ago, HuskerNation1 said:

 

Here are some stats I compiled against common competition between 2018 and 2019. Our offensive production went way down in 2019 overall.

 

2018	Win/Loss	Points Scored	Points Allowed	Total Yards	Yards Allowed
Colorado	L	28	33	565	395
Illinois	W	54	35	606	509
Northwestern	L	31	34	482	487
Ohio State	L	31	36	450	481
Minnesota	W	53	28	659	474
Purdue	L	28	42	582	516
Wisconsin	L	24	41	518	533
Iowa	L	28	31	400	419
Average		35.6	35.6	552	485
2019	Win/Loss	Points Scored	Points Allowed	Total Yards	Yards Allowed
Colorado	L	31	34	469	464
Illinois	W	42	38	674	299
Northwestern	L	13	10	319	293
Ohio State	L	7	48	231	580
Minnesota	W	7	34	299	450
Purdue	L	27	31	375	449
Wisconsin	L	21	37	493	482
Iowa	L	24	27	284	324
Average		21.1	33.1	409	431

 

 

Thanks for putting this together.  With those games it was a 143 yard drop off the average....Not to beat a dead horse, but did Stan, Oz, Farmer and Foster make that big of a difference?  And 2AM 2.0 playing hurt/off....Statistically, that's a huge step back in year 2.  Imagine if the D had not improved at all....

[SouthLincoln Husker]

6 hours ago, lo country said:

Created another thread on this from a recent artcile, but will post it here.  Not a lot of definitive proof of improvement except for going 5-7 vs 4-8.......

 

From 2018 to 2019, NU gained fewer first downs, ran for fewer yards, threw for fewer yards, gained fewer yards per rush, gained fewer total yards, scored fewer touchdowns, scored fewer total points, made fewer field goals, gave up touchdowns more often in the red zone, scored less in the red zone, gave up more kickoff return yards and touchdowns and broke up fewer passes.

Some of that change was drastic, like the 17.8-percentage point decrease in field goal percentage or the 14-percentage point decrease in red zone scores or the 11 fewer pass breakups.

 

Other stats were almost identical....No where to go but up I guess....

 

Article here:

https://www.omaha.com/sports/college/huskers/football/huskers-left-with-more-questions-after-season-but-scott-frost/article_6076cc57-44d6-5023-b97c-87c9bde1ed9c.amp.html

 

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Stanley & Ziggy were big losses and after Washington was dismissed there was no go to players. Mills got better, but put wr could not get open & Robinson was injured.   We need play makers & more than 2 or 3.

[Huskers93-97]

18 hours ago, Red Five said:

Klieman has won 4 natties, Frost has won 1.

Frost has won 0. He would tell you that 

[Huskers93-97]

5 hours ago, Hedley Lamarr said:

Eh you add Wren, Dennis, Fleming, and Manning and we slide into 19th currently with only 19 commits. 

Are we projected leader for those 4? I haven’t heard anything other than manning 

[Nebfanatic]

48 minutes ago, SouthLincoln Husker said:

Stanley & Ziggy were big losses and after Washington was dismissed there was no go to players. Mills got better, but put wr could not get open & Robinson was injured.   We need play makers & more than 2 or 3.

I think losing Foster and Farmer hurt more than people realized at first too. We are getting the guys we need to but it will be a bit before they are all ready to make a great unit.

[SouthLincoln Husker]

8 minutes ago, Nebfanatic said:

I think losing Foster and Farmer hurt more than people realized at first too. We are getting the guys we need to but it will be a bit before they are all ready to make a great unit.

I don't know if more, but just as much as our ol definitely struggled until the end of this year.

[lo country]

1 hour ago, SouthLincoln Husker said:

Stanley & Ziggy were big losses and after Washington was dismissed there was no go to players. Mills got better, but put wr could not get open & Robinson was injured.   We need play makers & more than 2 or 3.

I agree we need more playmakers.  IMHO, we won't be truly competitive until we are 2 deep across the board.  At most positions, we have a significant drop off once a starter goes down.  Lack of depth hurt us a lot at kicker, RB, WR, safety.  It also hurt our ability to rotate and keep the starters fresh in games.  Gotta develop the guys we have, not the guys we want....

[SouthLincoln Husker]

4 minutes ago, lo country said:

I agree we need more playmakers.  IMHO, we won't be truly competitive until we are 2 deep across the board.  At most positions, we have a significant drop off once a starter goes down.  Lack of depth hurt us a lot at kicker, RB, WR, safety.  It also hurt our ability to rotate and keep the starters fresh in games.  Gotta develop the guys we have, not the guys we want....

Exactly, Robinson be out really hurt the last couple of games.  No reliable backup. 

[BigPeterJ]

3 hours ago, lo country said:

Thanks for putting this together.  With those games it was a 143 yard drop off the average....Not to beat a dead horse, but did Stan, Oz, Farmer and Foster make that big of a difference?  And 2AM 2.0 playing hurt/off....Statistically, that's a huge step back in year 2.  Imagine if the D had not improved at all....

This is where im at.  The D wasnt great, but they improved.  Also they got put in tough spots by our offense more games than not.  The stats are nice but they dont tell the whole story.  With the way Frost teams play , they will make our offensive #s look better than reality, and our defensive #s look worse.  Their is no reason our offense should have taken a step back in year 2 of a new system, with the same QB.  We lost Zig and Stan but we gained Mills and Wandale.  We lost Farmer and Foster, but the rest of our OL should have improved with 1 more year.  I dont think this has anything to do with who we lost....  It has more to do with bad coaching and probably more than that, speaks to how much worse AM was.  Its hard to win many games in our style of offense with a bad QB.  With a Milton back their we win 8 games or so.  Actually probably 9.  We still lose to OSU, Minnesota, and Wisconsin.  No way we lose the purdue, indiana, colorado, or Iowa games with a really good QB.  Its even possible we beat Wisconsin and win 10.  Their are people who will hate this post, but a good QB vs a bad QB makes all the difference in an offense like this.  @ UCF, they go 7-5 or so with AM back there instead of Milton who went undefeated.  Watch that season, how many game Milton won them, and how many AM would have lost them.

[SouthLincoln Husker]

6 minutes ago, BigPeterJ said:

This is where im at.  The D wasnt great, but they improved.  Also they got put in tough spots by our offense more games than not.  The stats are nice but they dont tell the whole story.  With the way Frost teams play , they will make our offensive #s look better than reality, and our defensive #s look worse.  Their is no reason our offense should have taken a step back in year 2 of a new system, with the same QB.  We lost Zig and Stan but we gained Mills and Wandale.  We lost Farmer and Foster, but the rest of our OL should have improved with 1 more year.  I dont think this has anything to do with who we lost....  It has more to do with bad coaching and probably more than that, speaks to how much worse AM was.  Its hard to win many games in our style of offense with a bad QB.  With a Milton back their we win 8 games or so.

But we never had wandale the last 3 or 4 games.  Due lack of depth, mills was wearing out at the end of games.  This year had multiple issues. Not just the qb & coach. 

[BigPeterJ]

3 minutes ago, SouthLincoln Husker said:

But we never had wandale the last 3 or 4 games.  Due lack of depth, mills was wearing out at the end of games.  This year had multiple issues. Not just the qb & coach. 

You have a point about Wandale, but Mills was better at the end of the season than he ever was.  For some reason they didnt give him the ball enough.  Mills is better than we give him credit for.  And you lose players every year, if losing 2 decent OL, a really good WR, and a solid RB is an excuse to be worse the next year than your gonna have that excuse every single year.  Teams frequently lose half of their starters, almost always lose 2 linemen, and dont regress.  

[SouthLincoln Husker]

4 minutes ago, BigPeterJ said:

You have a point about Wandale, but Mills was better at the end of the season than he ever was.  For some reason they didnt give him the ball enough.  Mills is better than we give him credit for.  And you lose players every year, if losing 2 decent OL, a really good WR, and a solid RB is an excuse to be worse the next year than your gonna have that excuse every single year.  Teams frequently lose half of their starters, almost always lose 2 linemen, and dont regress.  

Agree.  Our line got better as the year went on.  Our lack of depth might have been our biggest issue.

[BigPeterJ]

5 minutes ago, SouthLincoln Husker said:

Agree.  Our line got better as the year went on.  Our lack of depth might have been our biggest issue.

That is a bright spot.  Our OL really was solid the last half of the season.  I will agree that the OL made Adrian worse the first half of the season, but i also believe AM made the OL look worse.  It goes both ways.  And in the second half of the season AM had plenty of time...i think he made the OL look worse.  

 

I love Frost, i am thankful that he is our coach.  I think his greatest attributes are intangibles , like his ability to connect with people.  He is the type of person that will eventually be good at whatever he puts his mind to.  That being said im just very dissapointed in his performannce so far.   Bad playcalling, his refusal to stick with Mills or the run schemes that work like what we ran against Wisconsin or OSU, i dont think he read defenses well at all..why throw so many screens against Iowa? Iowa is not the type of defense that screens work against.  His refusal to play the best QB, (i can understand after 3 or 4 games), but by the last game of the year it was clear what we were gonna get from AM...it was also clear that Luke brought an energy to the team and their wasnt a more picture perfect time than when we had all the momentum in the world tied with Iowa in the second half, after Luke threw the best pass of the day on his only play at QB, and when our offense has never looked bad with Luke out there, he still stuck with Adrian.  That was a back breaker.  I would be willing to bet that Ferentz was very happy that AM came back in instead of Luke.  We had Iowa on the ropes.  It was so clear to see, i would bet my life savings (partly cause its not that big of a bet) on us winning if Luke played the rest of the game.  Putting AM back their took the air right out of the building before he even played one down, and even more so after he went 3 and out time and time again for the rest of the game.  Their are things that are understandable, this decision was not one of them.  This is where, for the first time, i was pissed off at Frost.  Ive been upset, and disagreed with him plenty...but ive never been to the point where i felt downright pissed off at him, until this moment.  I would feel good if he played Luke, we beat Iowa, and can look forward to next year with a passionate baller like Luke leading our team, despite knowing he will make lots of mistakes.