The P&R Plague Thread (Covid-19)

[Archy1221]

11 minutes ago, Guy Chamberlin said:

If Man One predicts 2 million people will die from COVID if actions aren't taken, and 700,000 die even after actions are taken, does that constitute fear-mongering?

The entire country shut down for weeks on end, some parts not opening back up for months.  All based on that model.  
 

States that were not affected yet, parts of states that were not affected yet had to close down, because of that model.  Did that need to happen?  
 

The NE states obviously had a problem and needed to have a pause in activity, I don’t think most will dispute that.  KS never needed to, I do know that.  
 

I think it would be incumbent on someone doing models of what could actually happen and stop with doing models on things they know will never happen when they are supposed to be the experts.  That would be one of my larger point. 
 

The other would be if @RedDenverwants to shame a Twitter user for being wrong, then maybe shame the expert for being more wrong.  Another would be to not call the twitter user a Covid denier unless he wants to show his work 

[Archy1221]

9 minutes ago, BigRedBuster said:

Have they said they were wrong by 1,500,000?

 

 

Why does that matter

[BigRedBuster]

Just now, Archy1221 said:

Why does that matter

Because you claimed that. 

[Lorewarn]

20 minutes ago, Archy1221 said:

The entire country shut down for weeks on end, some parts not opening back up for months.  All based on that model.  
 

I think it would be incumbent on someone doing models of what could actually happen

 

 

If we didn't shut down based on the models forecasting how bad things could get, how many people would have died?

[Archy1221]

2 minutes ago, BigRedBuster said:

Because you claimed that. 

Yes, I claimed an accurate number.  Interestingly enough, they give a number of how wrong the CDC was in their model but don’t do the same for their own study.  Hmmm

Just now, Lorewarn said:

 

 

If we didn't shut down based on the models forecasting how bad things could get, how many people would have died?

I don’t know, do you? 

[Lorewarn]

4 minutes ago, Archy1221 said:

I don’t know, do you? 

 

Nope, but I'm not the one saying the 'idiot "experts"' were wrong.

 

 

 

[BigRedBuster]

3 minutes ago, Archy1221 said:

Yes, I claimed an accurate number.

How were you correct?

[Archy1221]

7 minutes ago, Lorewarn said:

 

Nope, but I'm not the one saying the 'idiot "experts"' were wrong.

 

 

 

But this particular expert prediction was quite awful and based on an algorithm they knew would never happen.  
 

And you are the only one calling them idiots 

9 minutes ago, BigRedBuster said:

How were you correct?

Math

[BigRedBuster]

3 minutes ago, Archy1221 said:

 

Math

Can you show that math?

[Archy1221]

9 minutes ago, BigRedBuster said:

Can you show that math?

Already have and your questions are getting ridiculous and to the point of trolling.  I think I will cease this petty game. 

[BigRedBuster]

3 minutes ago, Archy1221 said:

Already have and your questions are getting ridiculous and to the point of trolling.  I think I will cease this petty game. 

You claimed they were wrong by 1,500,000. 
 

you claimed you understood that was a worst case scenario. 
 

you claimed you understood that actions were taken so the worst case scenario didn’t happen. 
 

You claimed you don’t know what that worst case scenario really is. 
 

You stand by your 1,500,000. 
 

But, you haven’t shown, after all that, how the 1,500,000 is still correct. 
 

If you don’t want to answer, I understand. 

[Archy1221]

1 minute ago, BigRedBuster said:

You claimed they were wrong by 1,500,000. 
 

you claimed you understood that was a worst case scenario. 
 

you claimed you understood that actions were taken so the worst case scenario didn’t happen. 
 

You claimed you don’t know what that worst case scenario really is. 
 

You stand by your 1,500,000. 
 

But, you haven’t shown, after all that, how the 1,500,000 is still correct. 
 

If you don’t want to answer, I understand. 

I answered.  If you want to not understand that, well I guess I don’t understand why not.  
 

everything you just cited is true.   It’s their model was s#!tty, or wrong. You choose.  Have fun!!

[Lorewarn]

  

20 minutes ago, Archy1221 said:

But this particular expert prediction was quite awful and based on an algorithm they knew would never happen.  

 

It's a shame you can't A/B test reality to see what would've happened had we not had models showing us what would happen if we did nothing, thus giving us reason to do...not nothing.

 

 

 

 

20 minutes ago, Archy1221 said:

And you are the only one calling them idiots 

 

22 hours ago, Archy1221 said:

They are still closer than the “expert” 2 million deaths by end of 2020 idiots who are still deemed “experts” by some 

 

Emphasis mine.

[BigRedBuster]

3 minutes ago, Archy1221 said:

I answered.  If you want to not understand that, well I guess I don’t understand why not.  
 

everything you just cited is true.   It’s their model was s#!tty, or wrong. You choose.  Have fun!!

You’re really struggling with this to try to support you’re original comment. 

[Lorewarn]

"Honey, if we don't stop spending $10,000 every month, we're going to be in serious debt by this time next year."

 

"Well...that's not good. Let's start spending only $2,000 a month instead."

 

*Fast forward a year*

 

"HAHAHAHA remember when you said we were going to be in debt if we didn't do something? And now we did something, and we're not in debt at all. LOL you idiot, you were so wrong."