The P&R Plague Thread (Covid-19)

[BigRedBuster]

1 hour ago, knapplc said:

So... now we're back to attacking the "experts." 

 

Who should we be listening to, if those experts were all so wrong?

Facebook....duh......

[BigRedBuster]

32 minutes ago, Archy1221 said:

So what’s the difference between someone predicting worst case scenario from someone predicting best case scenario?   They are both wrong.  It’s funny you only defend one of the wrong predictions.   BTW, the person you presented originally is not a Covid denier.  Why are you saying this?  I know why, because you are trying to further trash someone who made a wrong prediction. 

Because....it's exactly what is in the bold.  This really isn't a hard concept.

[RedDenver]

34 minutes ago, Archy1221 said:

So what’s the difference between someone predicting worst case scenario from someone predicting best case scenario?

I forgot to add that you're straight up wrong or lying about the "best-case" scenario. The predictions were 10,000 deaths for mid range and 20,000 deaths for the high range, so the opposite of what you're claiming:

 

Even the "we f#&%ed up" prediction that is supposed to be approaching worst-case is off by a factor of 7. But keep defending this non-sense.

[commando]

1 financial adviser gets it wrong and it turns out 300% better than  predicted.  the other gets it  40x worse than his prediction.  same difference 

[teachercd]

What will last longer, the pandemic or posters fighting about the pandemic?  

[commando]

21 minutes ago, RedDenver said:

I forgot to add that you're straight up wrong or lying about the "best-case" scenario. The predictions were 10,000 deaths for mid range and 20,000 deaths for the high range, so the opposite of what you're claiming:

 

Even the "we f#&%ed up" prediction that is supposed to be approaching worst-case is off by a factor of 7. But keep defending this non-sense.

who is polimath calling to be arrested?

[knapplc]

6 minutes ago, teachercd said:

What will last longer, the pandemic or posters fighting about the pandemic?  

 

Plagues come and go. Stupid lasts forever. 

[teachercd]

13 minutes ago, knapplc said:

 

Plagues come and go. Stupid lasts forever. 

That has to be a T-shirt!

[Jason Sitoke]

31 minutes ago, knapplc said:

 

Plagues come and go. Stupid lasts forever. 

Dare I say, endemic?

[Archy1221]

30 minutes ago, RedDenver said:

Why are you pretending that a prediction off by an order of magnitude more than another prediction is essentially the same? We all know why. And why jump in and defend a dangerously wrong prediction? Again, we all know why. Both sides-ing at it's "finest".

One prediction has been wrong by 1.5 million patients and was has been wrong by 700,000 patients.  The whole “we all know why” schtick is pretty tired by now.  
 

I noticed you didn’t link to his follow up tweets.  I wonder why.  Or do “we all know why”

 

And when do we get to the part where you show he is a Covid denier as you charged him to be?  Seems that should be easy for you correct??  I notice you never went back to answer that.  Do “we all know why”? 

[Jason Sitoke]

Australia is easing restrictions, but is still prohibitive of taking off your mask to consume alcohol outdoors?  As they pass the 70% vaccination mark.  Does else anyone find this a little ridiculous?

 

Victoria COVID: Outdoor alcohol ban remains as Andrews appeals to better angels (theage.com.au)

[BigRedBuster]

25 minutes ago, Archy1221 said:

One prediction has been wrong by 1.5 million p

It was?

[Archy1221]

5 minutes ago, BigRedBuster said:

It was?

Yes

[BigRedBuster]

Just now, Archy1221 said:

Yes

Interesting, since it was the "worst case scenario".  Was there anything done to prevent the "worst case scenario"?

[Archy1221]

Just now, BigRedBuster said:

Interesting, since it was the "worst case scenario".  Was there anything done to prevent the "worst case scenario"?

And who’s to say the guy RedDenver was trying to shame didn’t make his “best case scenario”.  See how that works. 
 

BTW…subsequent revisions to the model were wrong by quite a bit also.  AFTER lockdown measures were in place.  
 

It’s ok to say the expert models were wrong.  It’s ok to say random twitter personality Politimath guess was wrong.  But if your gonna shame one, you better shame the other too.  Otherwise your being hypocritical like Red