The P&R Plague Thread (Covid-19)

[Archy1221]

1 minute ago, BigRedBuster said:

Why?  Mine doesn't have anything to do with his.  It's a simple question really.  It's been in the news for over a year and heavily debated.

 

Was there anything done to not have the worst case scenario happen?

Lots of things were done.  Now answer my questions to you. 

[BigRedBuster]

2 minutes ago, Archy1221 said:

Lots of things were done.  Now answer my questions to you. 

Then how do you know the "worst case scenario" was wrong?

[Guy Chamberlin]

There's a lot still to be figured out about the course of this pandemic, and the smart scientists have never pretended to know everything.

 

Many predicted that those worst case scenarios for America would be even worse in overpopulated countries with poor national health care. Nigeria and Bangladesh should have been disaster zones, perhaps millions dead, and India not far behind. That's not how it played out, not even close. Many vulnerable countries that skirted the first wave and even second wave, like India, Indonesia, Vietnam, Thailand finally got caught up in the Delta surge. It was bad, but not catastrophically bad. India very quickly turned its numbers around and has always been extremely low when measured per capita. European countries that had been out of the Top Ten came back in during the surge, but most have headed back down, although U.K. is still struggling.

 

But the one constant has been the U.S., leading the way in infections and deaths for 18 months.  Back to 2,000+ deaths every day. Even Brazil can't keep up. 

 

And then there's China. A nation of 1.3 billion where the virus began and must surely have raged unchecked for months. Yet there it is: #156 in the world in new infections today, reporting zero deaths, and #77 in total deaths, just behind f#&%ing Lithuania.  It's literally unbelievable, and no one should be surprised when that story breaks. 

 

 

[Lorewarn]

57 minutes ago, Archy1221 said:

So let’s say his best case number was 1,000.  That puts his incorrect guess at 690,000ish vs the incorrect expert guess at 1,500,000ish.  

 

 

Why would we say that? 

 

Is that you, Ben Shapiro??

[knapplc]

My favorite part about the people condemning the "experts" is that they never say, in plain English, "Don't listen to ___________, because they're wrong. Listen to ___________."

 

 

[Archy1221]

9 minutes ago, BigRedBuster said:

Then how do you know the "worst case scenario" was wrong?

I’ll get to that after you answer my questions. That’s how it works right?  I mean you just said it 

[BigRedBuster]

Just now, Archy1221 said:

I’ll get to that after you answer my questions. That’s how it works right?  I mean you just said it 

What question haven't I answered?

[Archy1221]

Just now, knapplc said:

My favorite part about the people condemning the "experts" is that they never say, in plain English, "Don't listen to ___________, because they're wrong. Listen to ___________."

 

 

Literally no one has said that in this conversation  At this point we have to assume you are just trolling. 

[Archy1221]

1 hour ago, Archy1221 said:

2 hours ago, BigRedBuster said:

So, was it the "worst case scenario"?  It's Ok to admit that it was since you typed that in a previous post.

 

If it was, was there anything done to not make the worst case scenario to happen?

Have I disagreed that it was worst case?  What am I supposed to “admit”?
 

Is there anything that happened for the other persons prediction to be wrong?  

2 hours ago, BigRedBuster said:

So, was it the "worst case scenario"?  It's Ok to admit that it was since you typed that in a previous post.

 

If it was, was there anything done to not make the worst case scenario to happen?

Did they give a prediction based on strong mitigation measures?  If not, why not?  Did they assume we would have none?

 

[Archy1221]

9 minutes ago, Lorewarn said:

 

 

Why would we say that? 

 

Is that you, Ben Shapiro??

It’s somewhere between 20,000 and roughly a 1,000 so you pick.  Doesn’t really change the final difference that much.  
Not sure what Ben Shapiro has to do with it, but since you are doing that sort of thing, whatever argument you are trying to make is surely lost by now.  

[BigRedBuster]

3 minutes ago, Archy1221 said:

Have I disagreed that it was worst case?  What am I supposed to “admit”?

Has been discussed.

 

3 minutes ago, Archy1221 said:

Is there anything that happened for the other persons prediction to be wrong?

I have no idea.  I also have no idea why that matters in our discussion.  Have I tried saying that he did?

 

4 minutes ago, Archy1221 said:

Did they give a prediction based on strong mitigation measures?  If not, why not?  Did they assume we would have none?

Don't know and no idea why that matters in our discussion.

 

Fact is, YOU are the one trying to say the experts were wrong by 1,500,000 deaths.  You have not provided anything to back that up other than math based on faulty logic.

 

Again....how do you know the "worst case scenario" was wrong?

[Guy Chamberlin]

10 minutes ago, Archy1221 said:

Lots of things were done.  Now answer my questions to you. 

 

I know how you like to leave things between the lines so you can pretend you're being misinterpreted, but I think you were getting at the issue of fear-mongering.

 

Fair enough.

 

If Man One predicts 2 million people will die from COVID if actions aren't taken, and 700,000 die even after actions are taken, does that constitute fear-mongering? 

 

If Man Two insists COVID deaths will be no worse than 20,000 -- what would be the lowest flu death numbers in years -- is he no less wrong than Man One?

 

No. He's more wrong. And if more people listen to him, thousands will die. 

 

This is where that Two Sides to Every Story thing goes to hell. 

 

 

[RedDenver]

22 hours ago, RedDenver said:

I'm old enough to remember all the "no way will there be more than X deaths" idiots:

 

 

4 hours ago, RedDenver said:

Yep, the worst-case scenario estimate being 3 times higher than the actual result is TOTALLY the same as dismissing the pandemic and estimating 35 times lower than the actual result. And you keep bringing up the covid-denier side and trying to distract/minimize how ridiculous they were and are is totally coincidence. It's more sad than funny.

 

31 minutes ago, Archy1221 said:

@RedDenver will you be be providing the relevant posts to back up your assertion that the tweeter was a Covid denier anytime soon?  

No, I said you keep bringing up the covid-denier side of the argument in an attempt to distract/minimize. Your first post could have been about how that tweeter was wrong and later acknowledged it, but instead you went with the distraction/minimization method of citing a different estimate and now you've spent many posts trying not to admit that the comparison you made was a poor one.

 

Good for that tweeter acknowledging he was wrong. Need more people like that in the world.

[Archy1221]

7 minutes ago, BigRedBuster said:

13 minutes ago, Archy1221 said:

 

I have no idea.  I also have no idea why that matters in our discussion.  Have I tried saying that he did?

Hmmmm.

 

9 minutes ago, BigRedBuster said:

Fact is, YOU are the one trying to say the experts were wrong by 1,500,000 deaths.  You have not provided anything to back that up other than math based on faulty logic.

Just an FYI for you.  The experts themselves are saying they were wrong   The authors themselves knew they would be wrong and by a good amount.  Not because every model is basically wrong, they all are, it’s just a matter of who was closer to being correct.  No, the authors knew they would be wrong because they modeled something that they knew and admit was never going to happen!!  

[BigRedBuster]

8 minutes ago, Archy1221 said:

Hmmmm.

 

Just an FYI for you.  The experts themselves are saying they were wrong   The authors themselves knew they would be wrong and by a good amount.  Not because every model is basically wrong, they all are, it’s just a matter of who was closer to being correct.  No, the authors knew they would be wrong because they modeled something that they knew and admit was never going to happen!!  

Have they said they were wrong by 1,500,000?