The P&R Plague Thread (Covid-19)

[Archy1221]

12 minutes ago, Scarlet said:

Or another way to look at it is that 10 out the 12 states with the least age related deaths per 100000 were blue states.  

If that’s what the data shows then yes.  

7 minutes ago, Scarlet said:

Vote D for president huh?  Can you please pass that on to those in your party that continue to try to subvert our democracy?  Thanks

No

[Scarlet]

6 minutes ago, knapplc said:

 

Which is why factors unrelated to keeping people safe from Covid are added in to that right-wing funded "study" that right-wing media is pushing.

 

You have to factor and factor and factor to make Red states look better. Just looking at straight-up responses doesn't cut it.

It does seem a little bit disingenuous for the party that virtue signals how pro-life they are.  

[Archy1221]

10 minutes ago, Scarlet said:

It does seem a little bit disingenuous for the party that virtue signals how pro-life they are.  

Not taking economic and social factors into account when looking at Covid responses is just plain fantasyland unless you like CCP’s current response to Covid.  

[Scarlet]

Just now, Archy1221 said:

Not taking economic and social factors into account when looking at Covid responses is just plain fantasyland unless you like CCP’s current response to Covid.  

That would be a straw man 

[Archy1221]

Just now, Scarlet said:

That would be a straw man 

Covid economics is a reality, not a strawman. 

[Scarlet]

Just now, Archy1221 said:

Covid economics is a reality, not a strawman. 

Saying what mitigation efforts we put into effect here are the same as what the CCP has done and that prioritizing life over economics is being in favor of what the CCP done is a strawman.  

 

 

[Guy Chamberlin]

1 hour ago, Jason Sitoke said:

Not to get too literal, but if we're talking about infection-mortality...BA.1 was similar if not less deadly than the flu.  I agree that its infectiousness caused it to burden the health care system significantly more than a typical flu would.

 

I've heard you say the northeast is getting 'hammered' and that there is a spike in the northeast.  These are subjective terms, but still I don't see those being indicative descriptors given the case/hospitalization data I see currently.  There is an uptick in incidences as far as I can tell.

 

I don't know about parsing collective deaths between the last three strains of COVID, but everything since Delta has been considered far less fatal than the original strain, but has still left us with fluctuations around 800 deaths a day, or 300,000 deaths a year, as compared to 20,000 - 60,000 for typical flu deaths in the U.S.

 

BA.1 in Europe and South Korea have racked up some vintage death numbers. If it's only the infection/mortality rates that concern you, sure. But at the end of the day a higher infection/modest mortality rate is killing more people than the flu, especially among the unvaccinated and high-risk. 

 

I really was trying to get less literal and divided:  we agree that COVID is worse than the flu, and we learn to live with it as such. 

 

I know the spike was a story in D.C. when a KJB Supreme Court Party became a super-spreader event, and New York City numbers (and my daughter's colllege in MA) are spurring rethinking on mask mandates. This is from just a couple hours ago. 

 

https://abcnews.go.com/US/video/northeast-us-sees-increase-covid-19-cases-84018245

[Archy1221]

24 minutes ago, Scarlet said:

Saying what mitigation efforts we put into effect here are the same as what the CCP has done and that prioritizing life over economics is being in favor of what the CCP done is a strawman.  

 

 

Hyperbolic sarcasm would be more accurate.  

[Guy Chamberlin]

I'm also seeing total fatalities for the last two days in the U.S. as 20 and 158, which is remarkable, even though the weekend numbers are traditionally low. 

[Jason Sitoke]

1 hour ago, Scarlet said:

Interesting but do you have a link to BA1 being less deadly than the flu?  This link shows it's 40% more lethal but doesn't say which strain of Omicron and the study isn't peer reviewed.  

 

https://www.google.com/amp/s/fortune.com/2022/03/03/omicron-less-lethal-covid-19-variants-40-deadlier-than-flu/amp/

Yeah, I read the same article.  I'll admit that I am choosing to believe estimates that around 3/4 of the U.S. population were exposed to BA.1.  Judging from the absurd official case numbers, combined with the absurd positivity rate during the surge...it seemed reasonable.  Given that around 110-120k people died in the time period corresponding to this same surge, that would circumstantially put the infection-mortality rate around  0.04%.  CDC estimates that the mortality rate of influenza in 2018-19 was ~0.095%.  

Estimated Flu-Related Illnesses, Medical visits, Hospitalizations, and Deaths in the United States — 2018–2019 Flu Season | CDC

 

So even if only half of the estimated BA.1 infections really occurred, it would still be technically less deadly the influenza was a few years ago in the US.  

 

Overall, I think it's hard to know exactly how they relate, but I think for the first time since the pandemic started...they're comparable.  As I said however, due to the infectiousness of Omicron, it presents a much more formidable burden on medical infrastructure than the flu typically does.

[Jason Sitoke]

18 minutes ago, Guy Chamberlin said:

 

I don't know about parsing collective deaths between the last three strains of COVID, but everything since Delta has been considered far less fatal than the original strain, but has still left us with fluctuations around 800 deaths a day, or 300,000 deaths a year, as compared to 20,000 - 60,000 for typical flu deaths in the U.S.

 

BA.1 in Europe and South Korea have racked up some vintage death numbers. If it's only the infection/mortality rates that concern you, sure. But at the end of the day a higher infection/modest mortality rate is killing more people than the flu, especially among the unvaccinated and high-risk. 

 

I really was trying to get less literal and divided:  we agree that COVID is worse than the flu, and we learn to live with it as such. 

 

I know the spike was a story in D.C. when a KJB Supreme Court Party became a super-spreader event, and New York City numbers (and my daughter's colllege in MA) are spurring rethinking on mask mandates. This is from just a couple hours ago. 

 

https://abcnews.go.com/US/video/northeast-us-sees-increase-covid-19-cases-84018245

Sure, I can see what you're getting at.  I think my only point is with Omicron, you can't really extrapolate 800 deaths a day during the surge to mean 300,000 deaths per year.

[Jason Sitoke]

24 minutes ago, Guy Chamberlin said:

I'm also seeing total fatalities for the last two days in the U.S. as 20 and 158, which is remarkable, even though the weekend numbers are traditionally low. 

I think a good predictor as well is that total number of folks in intensive care is ~1700, which is less than half of what it was at during the middle of 'hot vax summer' last year.

[Guy Chamberlin]

1 hour ago, Jason Sitoke said:

Sure, I can see what you're getting at.  I think my only point is with Omicron, you can't really extrapolate 800 deaths a day during the surge to mean 300,000 deaths per year.

 

Since the first report of Omicron in the U.S. near the end of November, there have been 200,000 U.S. deaths, hitting 3,000+ per day in February. -- worst of the pandemic. Hopefully this particular lull lasts forever, but even a modest spike or cycle (the numbers will have climbed by Wed & Thursday as always), COVID will most likely hit 300,000 deaths during the post Omicron year, maintaining its rank as the #3 cause of death in the U.S. 

 

Europe seems to be doing a quick burn, which is encouraging. Something really strange is going on in South Korea, which has handled the pandemic as well as anyone but is now the worst COVID spot in the world. 

[Jason Sitoke]

40 minutes ago, Guy Chamberlin said:

 

Since the first report of Omicron in the U.S. near the end of November, there have been 200,000 U.S. deaths, hitting 3,000+ per day in February. -- worst of the pandemic. Hopefully this particular lull lasts forever, but even a modest spike or cycle (the numbers will have climbed by Wed & Thursday as always), COVID will most likely hit 300,000 deaths during the post Omicron year, maintaining its rank as the #3 cause of death in the U.S. 

 

Europe seems to be doing a quick burn, which is encouraging. Something really strange is going on in South Korea, which has handled the pandemic as well as anyone but is now the worst COVID spot in the world. 

The death numbers lag case numbers by nearly a month.  Deaths that occurred in November were likely still from Delta, which was unquestionably more fatal than the flu and omicron. 

[Guy Chamberlin]

28 minutes ago, Jason Sitoke said:

The death numbers lag case numbers by nearly a month.  Deaths that occurred in November were likely still from Delta, which was unquestionably more fatal than the flu and omicron. 

 

I think we agree on enough to move forward, but not only has Omnicron been considerably more fatal than the flu, it could well be more fatal than Delta.

 

https://www.webmd.com/lung/news/20220127/deaths-due-to-omicron-higher-than-from-delta