***** Official Election Game Day Thread *****

[Moiraine]

1 minute ago, Danny Bateman said:

Jane Kleeb says Omaha is now Jomaha. You guys cool with that?

Fun fact that I didn't know until recently: Her husband made a serious play to flip NE-03's Congressional seat as a Democrat. That's crazy to me having recently lived there. Like he lost by 10 points and the GOP was so worried they sent W to do a visit there 2 days before the election.

 

It's going to be crazy if that one EV in Omaha winds up being what puts Biden over the finish line.

 

 

I don't like Biden enough to be cool with that and it's corny as hell.

And it would be crazy but I don't want it to. I want Biden to win without needing Pennsylvania because that's where the most bad s#!t can potentially occur.

I want Biden to win AZ, Georgia, Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania so Trump has to split his forces.

[Moiraine]

Biden needs to win close to 60% of the remaining 20% of Wisconsin.

 

 

The liar in chief is fomenting violence as I type this, claiming his voters are being disenfranchised.

[Omaha-Husker]

23 minutes ago, Danny Bateman said:

Jane Kleeb says Omaha is now Jomaha. You guys cool with that?

Fun fact that I didn't know until recently: Her husband made a serious play to flip NE-03's Congressional seat as a Democrat. That's crazy to me having recently lived there. Like he lost by 10 points and the GOP was so worried they sent W to do a visit there 2 days before the election.

 

It's going to be crazy if that one EV in Omaha winds up being what puts Biden over the finish line.

 

Bacon won Omaha's legislative spot by the largest margin in a decade while a democrat presidential candidate won the electoral vote safely, that is a pathetic outcome for Eastman. The Nebraska Dems really missed the mark here.

[Danny Bateman]

1 minute ago, Moiraine said:

 

 

I don't like Biden enough to be cool with that and it's corny as hell.

And it would be crazy but I don't want it to. I want Biden to win without needing Pennsylvania because that's where the most bad s#!t can potentially occur.

I want Biden to win AZ, Georgia, Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania so Trump has to split his forces.

 

I'm disappointed by tonight. I badly wanted a complete repudiation of this awful man. But we didn't get that. 

 

I think Joe's still got a real path to victory. He has played good defense and is poised to lose zero Clinton states. Arizona seems like a flip for him at this point. Georgia is suddenly really interesting. Wisconsin is the closest right now and most of the vote out yet is Milwaukee. Michigan is a bit goofy right now because we've reported almost none of our absentee votes which will heaivly favor Biden.

 

Still, yuck. This is not the early not many wanted. 

[Moiraine]

Biden also needs to win the rest of Pennsylvania about 60%-40%.

Again, this is a lot different than the normal election because for the counties that have mail in ballots left, the % of the vote within each county could change by quite a bit. Normally you could assume those % would stay about the same.

 

 

2 minutes ago, Danny Bateman said:

 

I'm disappointed by tonight. I badly wanted a complete repudiation of this awful man. But we didn't get that. 

 

I think Joe's still got a real path to victory. He has played good defense and is poised to lose zero Clinton states. Arizona seems like a flip for him at this point. Georgia is suddenly really interesting. Wisconsin is the closest right now and most of the vote out yet is Milwaukee. Michigan is a bit goofy right now because we've reported almost none of our absentee votes which will heaivly favor Biden.

 

Still, yuck. This is not the early not many wanted. 

 

 

 

Ya. I made myself listen to Trump's speech. It was chilling as hell and I can't believe this is happening in America. The guy hasn't even lost yet and he's talking about bringing this to the Supreme Court.

[Danny Bateman]

4 minutes ago, Moiraine said:

Biden also needs to win the rest of Pennsylvania about 60%-40%.

Again, this is a lot different than the normal election because for the counties that have mail in ballots left, the % of the vote within each county could change by quite a bit. Normally you could assume those % would stay about the same.

 

 

 

 

 

Ya. I made myself listen to Trump's speech. It was chilling as hell and I can't believe this is happening in America.

 

You've got bigger stones than I do. I tried to do so but I would up muting it once he started talking and his supporters started whooping.

 

Sounds like it was pretty much exactly the s#!t we've grown to expect from Trump.

 

And what's worse is now that he's ripped off this band-aid talking about a stolen election, it's going to devolve into a back and forth with Trump sending his lawyers into states that are still counting and Biden sending his team of lawyers in to tell them to back off and count the votes.

 

Thank goodness Biden foresaw this outcome and amassed a massive legal organization. Getting caught flat-footed would've been disastrous.

[Notre Dame Joe]

That's how I always knew Trump wasn't cheating or colluding or whatever because he whined that it was rigged in 2016 too.  People trying to scam never remind you that scams happen. (looking at you PA).

 

Not saying Trump will save AZ but I'm seeing tweets that there are enough ballots left in AZ if they strongly break towards Trump.

 

 

[Moiraine]

Biden needs to win close to 60% of the rest of Michigan.

[Moiraine]

delete

[Notre Dame Joe]

1 minute ago, Moiraine said:

 

 

Trump needs about 62% of the rest of the vote in Arizona. Trump held a slight lead in early voting but they started counting those on Oct. 20, so my guess is if Trump is going to win Arizona it would be based on county population and win % and % reported. I don't think those win % will change drastically based on the order of counting those ballots and the fact Trump only had a slight lead there. 

If that's the case I don't see a path to victory for Trump as I think he will only gain about 17,000 more votes in the counties he leads and Biden will gain about 25,000 more votes just in Maricopa (I didn't count the other counties he's leading in).

AP called AZ for JB.

 

PA looks headed for some hanging chad level litigation.  It's going to look bad if it flips because all the mail in ballots were held back til the end. 

[Moiraine]

6 minutes ago, Notre Dame Joe said:

AP called AZ for JB.

 

PA looks headed for some hanging chad level litigation.  It's going to look bad if it flips because all the mail in ballots were held back til the end. 

 

 

I deleted the post because I misunderstood the Tweet I read. Fox called AZ for Biden first and everyone said immediately they jumped the gun. Except AP I guess (unless they're just now calling it).

Not all the mail in ballots were held back to the end. It was up to each county individually.

[Moiraine]

Some weirdness in Wisconsin. I don't know how the vote tallies are estimated. Maybe they all use different algorithms. AP is saying 3MM votes have been counted and 97% votes are in. NYT is saying 2.87MM counted and 81% votes are in.

 

 

If 2,950,000 is 97% then there are 3,041,237 total.

If 2,870,000 is 81% then there are 3,543,210 total.

That is a huge difference. 

By my estimate there are 340,000 votes still left in Milwaukee with 585,000 expected, and AP is reporting there are 282,000 votes counted and they're 99.6% done counting.

There were 441,000 votes in Milwaukee County in 2016 so I'm gonna go with the NYT estimate.

[Notre Dame Joe]

3 minutes ago, Moiraine said:

 

 

I deleted the post because I misunderstood the Tweet I read. Fox called AZ for Biden first and everyone said immediately they jumped the gun. Except AP I guess (unless they're just now calling it).

Not all the mail in ballots were held back to the end. It was up to each county individually.

 

I was going off a tweet by Nate Cohn linked from some others.  Is there one source for each state and what order they count in?

 

Fox just said PA counts their mail in vote last.  If you think Trump's presser was bad, you'll have to block him on Twitter this week. 

[Moiraine]

7 minutes ago, Notre Dame Joe said:

 

I was going off a tweet by Nate Cohn linked from some others.  Is there one source for each state and what order they count in?

 

Fox just said PA counts their mail in vote last.  If you think Trump's presser was bad, you'll have to block him on Twitter this week. 

 

 

I think NYT might have had something but I'm not a subscriber so I couldn't see it. But with PA everything I read leading up to it says the PA counties choose what order to count the votes in. I also don't have Twitter

[Notre Dame Joe]

4 minutes ago, Moiraine said:

Some weirdness in Wisconsin. I don't know how the vote tallies are estimated. Maybe they all use different algorithms. AP is saying 3MM votes have been counted and 97% votes are in. NYT is saying 2.87MM counted and 81% votes are in.

 

 

If 2,950,000 is 97% then there are 3,041,237 total.

If 2,FOx870,000 is 81% then there are 3,543,210 total.

That is a huge difference. 

Fox says 93% reporting with a major urban dump to come at 5am eastern.

 

So that's why western states counted faster than the midwest.  The latter weren't experienced in it and held back their mail in votes.