Moiraine Posted November 4, 2020 Author Share Posted November 4, 2020 Ohio, on the other hand, seems to be increasingly in Trump’s column: 88 percent of the expected vote is accounted for, and Trump leads by nearly 8 points. (Remember Trump won Ohio by 8 points in 2016.) Link to comment
Mavric Posted November 4, 2020 Share Posted November 4, 2020 2 minutes ago, Moiraine said: NATE SILVER NOV. 3, 11:26 PM Just speaking hypothetically: If Trump wins Florida, North Carolina and Ohio, but Biden wins Arizona, Biden is an 85 percent favorite in our scenario generator. There’s a 6 percent chance of an Electoral College tie, though. Not sure what other states he is calling. Would have to be Pennsylvania and Michigan or Wisconsin for Biden also? Link to comment
Notre Dame Joe Posted November 4, 2020 Share Posted November 4, 2020 Just now, Mavric said: Not sure what other states he is calling. Would have to be Pennsylvania and Michigan or Wisconsin for Biden also? If Biden holds AZ then Trump has two score TDs in all three midwestern states without a penalty or turnover. for the moment CNN is not calling AZ... Link to comment
Moiraine Posted November 4, 2020 Author Share Posted November 4, 2020 3 minutes ago, Mavric said: Not sure what other states he is calling. Would have to be Pennsylvania and Michigan or Wisconsin for Biden also? What I believe they are doing is going with their previous predictions and assuming that the Florida polling error does not extend to the rust belt. And I don't think anything in the current margins is telling them otherwise yet. There are definitely big Trump margins in 2 of those states but a lot of the high pop. Democrat counties and early votes have not been counted yet. Link to comment
FrantzHardySwag Posted November 4, 2020 Share Posted November 4, 2020 This is what they've been saying all along. Arizona will be Biden's big win if it holds, because it might keep Trump from declaring an early victory. Link to comment
ColoradoHusk Posted November 4, 2020 Share Posted November 4, 2020 39 minutes ago, FrantzHardySwag said: Yep Wisconsin Biden counties are the same.. People are just gonna have to wait. Wisconsin super close right now. Iowa gonna shift to Trump. It’s gonna come down to WI, MI, and PA. Link to comment
Moiraine Posted November 4, 2020 Author Share Posted November 4, 2020 Trump has a big lead in Michigan but there are still ~1.9MM more votes to count and Trump's lead is 280,000. Wayne County (Detroit) is 28% reported. Biden could potentially pick up 130,000 more votes from there if percentages hold, although we're getting to neighborhood levels there so I have no idea. 1 Link to comment
Mavric Posted November 4, 2020 Share Posted November 4, 2020 4 minutes ago, ColoradoHusk said: Wisconsin super close right now. Iowa gonna shift to Trump. It’s gonna come down to WI, MI, and PA. Trump with a decent lead (of votes counted) in all three? 1 Link to comment
ColoradoHusk Posted November 4, 2020 Share Posted November 4, 2020 1 minute ago, Mavric said: Trump with a decent lead (of votes counted) in all three? Yes, but Biden counting on the mail-in votes to be counted in the next day or three (in PA). 1 Link to comment
ColoradoHusk Posted November 4, 2020 Share Posted November 4, 2020 Virginia has turned around for Biden, as expected. Link to comment
Moiraine Posted November 4, 2020 Author Share Posted November 4, 2020 5 minutes ago, Mavric said: Trump with a decent lead (of votes counted) in all three? He's up 4.5% in WI, 10.9% in MI, and 14.4% in PA. The thing that makes this so different from prior elections is a lot of places in these 3 states are counting election day votes first and they favor Trump. It's not your normal election where you would expect the margins within a county to remain the same. Right now the biggest county in MI, Wayne County, is 55% Biden. Clinton won 67% of the vote there. So if Biden keeps his % at 55% then he is doing absolutely awful. Awful enough that at this point in time it seems unlikely that it's his final % there. 1 Link to comment
Moiraine Posted November 4, 2020 Author Share Posted November 4, 2020 Reid Epstein, in Madison, Wis. 3m ago Remember, as you see Wisconsin results come in, that in many jurisdictions the absentee ballots won’t be counted and reported until ALL the absentee ballots are counted. See Wisconsin results › Link to comment
Mavric Posted November 4, 2020 Share Posted November 4, 2020 So if Iowa flips to Trump and Wisconsin (10), Michigan (16), Pennsylvania (20) and North Carolina (15) are undecided, it would be Biden - 244 - needs 26 Trump - 233 - needs 37 So Biden would need any two and Trump would need any three. If Wisconsin and North Carolina go Biden and Michigan and Pennsylvania go Trump, it's 269-269. Link to comment
Omaha-Husker Posted November 4, 2020 Share Posted November 4, 2020 1 minute ago, Mavric said: So if Iowa flips to Trump and Wisconsin (10), Michigan (16), Pennsylvania (20) and North Carolina (15) are undecided, it would be Biden - 244 - needs 26 Trump - 233 - needs 37 So Biden would need any two and Trump would need any three. If Wisconsin and North Carolina go Bidena and Michigan and Pennsylvania go Trump, it's 269-269. NE2... Link to comment
ColoradoHusk Posted November 4, 2020 Share Posted November 4, 2020 I am counting Arizona to Biden and Iowa to Trump. Whoever wins PA will win the election with either WI or MI. If Biden wins WI and MI, it just needs one from District 2-NE or District-2 Maine. 1 Link to comment
Recommended Posts