ColoradoHusk Posted November 4, 2020 Share Posted November 4, 2020 1 minute ago, Moiraine said: So why do you think it is still in play? Most still have it for Biden. He is down but they count early votes last and they know the make up of the counties that have reported. They've also all stated they are going to be way more conservative in calling states this time. CNN has been showing the votes counted, but giving big caveats on the leads by both Trump and Biden. This is going to go down to the wire. Link to comment
Moiraine Posted November 4, 2020 Author Share Posted November 4, 2020 Just now, RedDenver said: He probably made too much of an assumption that they'd never vote Trump, and also made too many dumbass comments. Link to comment
teachercd Posted November 4, 2020 Share Posted November 4, 2020 I have no idea why Virginia is in play, just what I heard really quick. Link to comment
Moiraine Posted November 4, 2020 Author Share Posted November 4, 2020 2 minutes ago, ColoradoHusk said: CNN has been showing the votes counted, but giving big caveats on the leads by both Trump and Biden. This is going to go down to the wire. I don't look at vote margins at all I look at probabilities and county distributions people are talking about, also early vs. election day votes. They called Virginia for a reason. They basing their correctness on the margin right now doesn't make sense. That said it's still possible they called it wrong. Link to comment
Mavric Posted November 4, 2020 Share Posted November 4, 2020 1 minute ago, teachercd said: I have no idea why Virginia is in play, just what I heard really quick. Numbers I see are 53-45 Trump with 51% reporting Link to comment
Moiraine Posted November 4, 2020 Author Share Posted November 4, 2020 1 minute ago, Mavric said: Numbers I see are 53-45 Trump with 51% reporting But, as I said to someone earlier talking about Biden being up in NC, that doesn't matter without having the context of what counties the votes are coming from. For example there was an 85% chance that Trump wins North Carolina when Biden was leading. Link to comment
ColoradoHusk Posted November 4, 2020 Share Posted November 4, 2020 1 minute ago, Mavric said: Numbers I see are 53-45 Trump with 51% reporting Biden has been cutting into the lead in Virginia, like Trump has been cutting into Biden’s leads in NC and OH. Link to comment
Mavric Posted November 4, 2020 Share Posted November 4, 2020 1 minute ago, Moiraine said: But, as I said to someone earlier talking about Biden being up in NC, that doesn't matter without having the context of what counties the votes are coming from. For example there was an 85% chance that Trump wins North Carolina when Biden was leading. Yeah, it definitely depends on which ones are reporting. I don't have a good reference on that. I just think that's probably why some are saying it's back in play - a decent Trump lead with over half the vote in. Link to comment
ColoradoHusk Posted November 4, 2020 Share Posted November 4, 2020 FiveThirtyEight is showing that 274k mail votes in PA won’t be counted until tomorrow, with many of those being Biden votes. If it comes down to PA, it could get ugly. Link to comment
Moiraine Posted November 4, 2020 Author Share Posted November 4, 2020 2 minutes ago, Mavric said: Yeah, it definitely depends on which ones are reporting. I don't have a good reference on that. I just think that's probably why some are saying it's back in play - a decent Trump lead with over half the vote in. Gotcha. That's why I asked teach where he heard it. It sounds like the reasoning is Trump is ahead and that's not really good enough. Nice think about Trump winning Virginia is I could go to bed early. Just now, ColoradoHusk said: FiveThirtyEight is showing that 274k mail votes in PA won’t be counted until tomorrow, with many of those being Biden votes. If it comes down to PA, it could get ugly. Which... it shouldn't get ugly. Those votes should be counted. It should just take a few days longer. Link to comment
ColoradoHusk Posted November 4, 2020 Share Posted November 4, 2020 1 minute ago, Moiraine said: Gotcha. That's why I asked teach where he heard it. It sounds like the reasoning is Trump is ahead and that's not really good enough. Nice think about Trump winning Virginia is I could go to bed early. Which... it shouldn't get ugly. Those votes should be counted. It should just take a few days longer. I agree that every vote should be counted. Link to comment
Mavric Posted November 4, 2020 Share Posted November 4, 2020 Just now, Moiraine said: Gotcha. That's why I asked teach where he heard it. It sounds like the reasoning is Trump is ahead and that's not really good enough. Nice think about Trump winning Virginia is I could go to bed early. As close as I can tell, I don't see any Virginia counties that have switched from what they were in 2016. And a couple heavy Clinton counties haven't reported yet. Clinton won by some 212,000 votes (out of 3.7M) Link to comment
Moiraine Posted November 4, 2020 Author Share Posted November 4, 2020 1 minute ago, ColoradoHusk said: I agree that every vote should be counted. Ya I know. I'm just annoyed that it's a thing. 1 Link to comment
ColoradoHusk Posted November 4, 2020 Share Posted November 4, 2020 Biden looks to be flipping Arizona. That will help him. Still looks like it’s gonna come down to the blue wall which Hillary lost in 2016. Link to comment
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