Moiraine Posted November 4, 2020 Author Share Posted November 4, 2020 1 minute ago, Moiraine said: It will be interesting to see that swing if Biden wins Ohio and it's called soon. Speaking of which, there is the below from NYT, however who knows how many Hispanics are in these areas and whether we'll see the same trend as elsewhere. Results by county We just received more votes from Richland County. According to turnout estimates, more of the uncounted votes, about 62 percent, are in counties won by Clinton in 2016. 8m ago Link to comment
FrantzHardySwag Posted November 4, 2020 Share Posted November 4, 2020 13 minutes ago, Moiraine said: It will be interesting to see that swing if Biden wins Ohio and it's called soon. Betting odds are just a terrible way to judge this event, Ohio will be interesting. All eyes are there right now. If Biden does well there he should in MN, MI, WI, PA Link to comment
teachercd Posted November 4, 2020 Share Posted November 4, 2020 1 minute ago, FrantzHardySwag said: Betting odds are just a terrible way to judge this event, Ohio will be interesting. All eyes are there right now. If Biden does well there he should in MN, MI, WI, PA Yeah, I get that thinking but man...Vegas has a bunch of huge shiny buildings that are open 24/7 for a reason. Link to comment
Moiraine Posted November 4, 2020 Author Share Posted November 4, 2020 1 minute ago, teachercd said: Yeah, I get that thinking but man...Vegas has a bunch of huge shiny buildings that are open 24/7 for a reason. I'm not sure I understand the logic here but I don't understand betting that well. But... they've had odds all over the place, different ones every month and every day, and now every hour. They're probably making $ when Trump is ahead and making $ when Biden is ahead. I wouldn't think it matters what they had as the odds at any 1 specific time. But maybe you can explain it. Link to comment
RedDenver Posted November 4, 2020 Share Posted November 4, 2020 Imagine how bad Biden would have lost if Trump hadn't absolutely botched covid. Link to comment
teachercd Posted November 4, 2020 Share Posted November 4, 2020 Just now, Moiraine said: I'm not sure I understand the logic here but I don't understand betting that well. But... they've had odds all over the place, different ones every month and every day, and now every hour. They're probably making $ when Trump is ahead and making $ when Biden is ahead. I wouldn't think it matters what they had as the odds at any 1 specific time. But maybe you can explain it. I mean, where the money goes will influence the odds of course, as you know. But big bets from people that research will influence it as well. So right now, people are hammering Trump to win and so far it looks like they might be right. But it isn't like Vegas is always right but they do have a decent track record. Who knows, I just find it interesting to follow. Just now, RedDenver said: Imagine how bad Biden would have lost if Trump hadn't absolutely botched covid. That is what so many were saying before. Link to comment
Moiraine Posted November 4, 2020 Author Share Posted November 4, 2020 1 minute ago, teachercd said: -300 See, this is where it's confusing. None of the probabilities or projections have changed from the time it was -150 to the time it was -300. I feel like this line is moving because of bets, not because someone in Vegas is predicting something. This is because of normal people making guesses. A lot of people who aren't very informed think winning Florida is a ginormous deal. Trump had to win it but Biden didn't. Link to comment
teachercd Posted November 4, 2020 Share Posted November 4, 2020 I mean, Virginia is back in play and Trump is going to win it (I think?) and it was called like 3 hours ago for Joe. Link to comment
ZRod Posted November 4, 2020 Share Posted November 4, 2020 1 minute ago, RedDenver said: Imagine how bad Biden would have lost if Trump hadn't absolutely botched covid. Gross... Link to comment
teachercd Posted November 4, 2020 Share Posted November 4, 2020 Just now, Moiraine said: See, this is where it's confusing. None of the probabilities or projections have changed from the time it was -150 to the time it was -300. I feel like this line is moving because of bets, not because someone in Vegas is predicting something. This is because of normal people making guesses. A lot of people who aren't very informed think winning Florida is a ginormous deal. Trump had to win it but Biden didn't. Yeah, I don't know how Vegas does it. Link to comment
Moiraine Posted November 4, 2020 Author Share Posted November 4, 2020 2 minutes ago, teachercd said: I mean, Virginia is back in play and Trump is going to win it (I think?) and it was called like 3 hours ago for Joe. Ah, I'm not watching TV and hadn't seen that. Who uncalled it? NYT and ABC both called it. But I just saw the below from 3 mins ago. This is the type of thing I'd think would make people bet on Trump: "The incomplete Michigan results reflect a Trump advantage because the largest chunk is coming from Oakland County’s Election Day vote. Many more absentee votes are still out." Link to comment
teachercd Posted November 4, 2020 Share Posted November 4, 2020 -350 now 1 minute ago, Moiraine said: Ah, I'm not watching TV and hadn't seen that. Who uncalled it? NYT and ABC both called it. But I just saw the below from 3 mins ago. This is the type of thing I'd think would make people bet on Trump: "The incomplete Michigan results reflect a Trump advantage because the largest chunk is coming from Oakland County’s Election Day vote. Many more absentee votes are still out." fox News I think called Virginia for Joe a few hours ago. i don't know, I am watching ABC and Netflix, a show called "Love" it is really good. 1 Link to comment
Moiraine Posted November 4, 2020 Author Share Posted November 4, 2020 1 minute ago, teachercd said: -350 now fox News I think called Virginia for Joe a few hours ago. i don't know, I am watching ABC and Netflix, a show called "Love" it is really good. So why do you think it is still in play? Most still have it for Biden. He is down but they count early votes last and they know the make up of the counties that have reported. They've also all stated they are going to be way more conservative in calling states this time. Link to comment
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