** 2023 Previews: The Athletic (Stewart Mandel's) Big Ten Predictions **

[Husker in WI]

5 minutes ago, LumberJackSker said:

People are really assuming the air raid is going to work in Wisconsin 

 

I think people are assuming the defensive will still be good (fair amount of talent returning, similar systems, well-regarded defensive coaching staff) and that is enough to win this division if the offense even has a pulse. Longo also ran the ball 55-58% of the time at UNC his first 3 years before dropping to 49% last year. It's a huge change don't get me wrong, but they'll still run it a lot and it just has to be better than Iowa's offense to be the front runner in the West. 

[Lorewarn]

48 minutes ago, Husker03 said:

 

He inherited a roster second, at the time, ONLY to Bama.  As stands, he is failing to maintain that position and now PSU and Michigan are back to life.

 

 

Failing to maintain what position? The position they were in under Urban Meyer? Urban's win percentage was 90% - Day's is 89%. Urban had three losses to unranked teams, Day has had zero. Urban won the conference 42% of the time, Day has won it 50% of the time. Urban's average poll finish was 4.57, Day's is 3.5. Their recruiting is even better than it was under Urban.

 

The only blemish is the two losses to Michigan's best two teams of the last 25 years. He's shown nothing other than being an elite coach thus far, and while some lifelong spoiled out of touch loud minority OSU fans might be grumbling, their AD isn't stupid and Day is just fine for now.

[runningblind]

1 hour ago, Husker in WI said:

 

I think people are assuming the defensive will still be good (fair amount of talent returning, similar systems, well-regarded defensive coaching staff) and that is enough to win this division if the offense even has a pulse. Longo also ran the ball 55-58% of the time at UNC his first 3 years before dropping to 49% last year. It's a huge change don't get me wrong, but they'll still run it a lot and it just has to be better than Iowa's offense to be the front runner in the West. 

The defense is TBD as well, with an offensive system change.  They could play good game control defense, like Iowa, but how does that change with more 3 and outs in a passing O and probably more plays defended?  Assuming the D will just carry on like nothing changed, isn't a safe bet.  It's like the argument people like to make about NU that if we just do these 3 things better, while keeping everything else the same, and we will make a bowl.  No guarantee everything else stays the same with a new staff to make those 3 things what puts us over the top.  Those same 3 top issues from last year, might not be the same top issues this year, too many variables to say.

[Husker03]

50 minutes ago, Lorewarn said:

 

 

Failing to maintain what position? The position they were in under Urban Meyer? Urban's win percentage was 90% - Day's is 89%. Urban had three losses to unranked teams, Day has had zero. Urban won the conference 42% of the time, Day has won it 50% of the time. Urban's average poll finish was 4.57, Day's is 3.5. Their recruiting is even better than it was under Urban.

 

The only blemish is the two losses to Michigan's best two teams of the last 25 years. He's shown nothing other than being an elite coach thus far, and while some lifelong spoiled out of touch loud minority OSU fans might be grumbling, their AD isn't stupid and Day is just fine for now.

Give it 5 years.

[Husker in WI]

1 minute ago, Husker03 said:

Give it 5 years.

 

Wait, we need to wait 9 years before judging a coach? We better bring Frost back, we judged him too early!

 

27 minutes ago, runningblind said:

The defense is TBD as well, with an offensive system change.  They could play good game control defense, like Iowa, but how does that change with more 3 and out's in a passing O and probably more plays defended?  Assuming the D will just carry on like nothing changed, isn't a safe bet.  It's like the argument people like to make about NU that if we just do these 3 things better, while keeping everything else the same, and we will make a bowl.  No guarantee everything else stays the same with a new staff to make those 3 things what puts us over the top.  They might not even be the top 3 issues this year, too many variables to say.

For sure, I think it's quite possible they take a step back statistically - but they'll still be really good, even if there are a few occasions where they get worn down. I fully expect them to be a bit worse in the counting stats, but there's a lot of talent and proven coaches.

 

I do think trying to marry elite defense with tempo offenses is interesting, and we'll see how it goes. Cincinnati did not run a ton of plays on offense last year, and Fickell is a defensive guys so I assume that's something he appreciated. They still defended a lot of plays being in the AAC, but not as many as if their offense went tempo. But Longo does do a lot with tempo - does Fickell give him free reign and trust the defense to be good enough when put in bad situations? Or does he force Longo to slow it down and potentially limit the offense, which probably does need any help it can get* from misaligned or tired defenders? 

 

*People here are very high on their WR group and obviously Allen/Mellusi at RB, but I'm skeptical of the former. And Mordecai may throw for a ton of yards but I would also put money on double digit INTs. For having no really good teams the West is super interesting - Iowa is incredibly conservative, Wisconsin trying something new, and then Minnesota with stability and a better offense than Iowa but no stars. I find it interesting, even though again nobody is going to be really good.

[Lorewarn]

7 minutes ago, Husker03 said:

Give it 5 years.

 

 

You give it five years, you're the one claiming he's Solich when his resume is significantly better. I'm looking at what he's done, you're interpreting it as a super secret hidden future failure, so I don't know why I'm the one that has to give it time and not you

 

 

[runningblind]

56 minutes ago, Husker in WI said:

 

Wait, we need to wait 9 years before judging a coach? We better bring Frost back, we judged him too early!

 

For sure, I think it's quite possible they take a step back statistically - but they'll still be really good, even if there are a few occasions where they get worn down. I fully expect them to be a bit worse in the counting stats, but there's a lot of talent and proven coaches.

 

I do think trying to marry elite defense with tempo offenses is interesting, and we'll see how it goes. Cincinnati did not run a ton of plays on offense last year, and Fickell is a defensive guys so I assume that's something he appreciated. They still defended a lot of plays being in the AAC, but not as many as if their offense went tempo. But Longo does do a lot with tempo - does Fickell give him free reign and trust the defense to be good enough when put in bad situations? Or does he force Longo to slow it down and potentially limit the offense, which probably does need any help it can get* from misaligned or tired defenders? 

 

*People here are very high on their WR group and obviously Allen/Mellusi at RB, but I'm skeptical of the former. And Mordecai may throw for a ton of yards but I would also put money on double digit INTs. For having no really good teams the West is super interesting - Iowa is incredibly conservative, Wisconsin trying something new, and then Minnesota with stability and a better offense than Iowa but no stars. I find it interesting, even though again nobody is going to be really good.

I too am very skeptical of their WR group, they did add a couple from outside, and also their line pass blocking a ton.  That is a large change from what those guys were recruited for, and have been asked to do for how ever long they have been in Madison.  That isn't an easy switch to flip in a single off season. 

[Husker03]

2 hours ago, Husker in WI said:

 

Wait, we need to wait 9 years before judging a coach? We better bring Frost back, we judged him too early!

 

 

My contention is that he took over a program at the very top while the main rivals were down a bit, which made up for some of his deficiencies but he is slowly losing ground each year and will continue to do so. Urban momentum will run out much like Osborne momentum ran out for Frank.  Day is in a populous area with much better access to talent than Frank had, and Day also does actually recruit, which Frank never did very well, so the slow down will take a bit longer, but I think it will happen because I don't think that Day is a great football mind and his advantages will continue to dwindle.

[admo]

9 hours ago, Saunders said:

West

TEAM	BIG TEN	OVERALL
Wisconsin	7-2	9-3
Iowa	6-3	9-3
Illinois	5-4	7-5
Minnesota	4-5	6-6
Nebraska	3-6	5-7
Purdue	3-6	5-7
Northwestern	0-9	2-10

 

If Purdue can perform with new HC Ryan Walters and former Texas QB Hudson Card, I would not be surprised if they win 4 games in this conference/division.  Could be sneaky good team.

 

Walters was the Illinois DC under Brett Bielema.

 

Hudson Card was a 4 star recruit for Texas and has 3 years to play.  He played in 12 games for the Longhorns, started 3, and completed .69% passes, with 6 touchdowns and 1 interception.  

 

If you get a good HC with a strong DC background, and a good QB, you can win games in this conference. I wouldn't sleep on Purdue.  

 

Walters - 37 yrs old - played college football at Colorado.  Coached at Missouri under Pinkel and Odom as DC before getting the DC job at Illinois with BB.  Last year under Walters, Illinois was 2nd nationally in points allowed, 3rd in total defense, 3rd in yards per play, 1st in interceptions, and

1st in takeaways.  

 

Hudson Card - threw for 80TDS and 6500 yards in Austin (HS Lake Travis).

 

 

[Lorewarn]

51 minutes ago, Husker03 said:

My contention is that he took over a program at the very top while the main rivals were down a bit, which made up for some of his deficiencies but he is slowly losing ground each year and will continue to do so. Urban momentum will run out much like Osborne momentum ran out for Frank.  Day is in a populous area with much better access to talent than Frank had, and Day also does actually recruit, which Frank never did very well, so the slow down will take a bit longer, but I think it will happen because I don't think that Day is a great football mind and his advantages will continue to dwindle.

 

 

This is a lot of words just to say you were wrong and overblown in your initial comment.

 

Slowly losing ground each year to the tune of being a missed field goal away from a natty in his most recent year  

[Archy1221]

44 minutes ago, Lorewarn said:

 

 

This is a lot of words just to say you were wrong and overblown in your initial comment.

 

Slowly losing ground each year to the tune of being a missed field goal away from a natty in his most recent year  

Almost all of what you said earlier is correct, however, make no mistake that if he loses to Michigan two more years in a row with a 3 loss season included, his seat will become very hot very quickly.  
 

Cool thing for me on Michigan is my college teammate, Steve Clinkscale, is the co-defensive coordinator.  Cool thing for me on the OSU, 80% of my teammates are OSU fans along with my entire wife’s family.  It’s fun to watch the rivalry with no rooting interest amongst those that do.  I can’t stand either team though.  

[BigRedBuster]

4 minutes ago, Archy1221 said:

Almost all of what you said earlier is correct, however, make no mistake that if he loses to Michigan two more years in a row with a 3 loss season included, his seat will become very hot very quickly.  

Which I think is stupid. 

[Archy1221]

14 minutes ago, BigRedBuster said:

Which I think is stupid. 

Agree, It does seem obscene, but it’s the job he signed up for and is handsomely paid  

[BigRedBuster]

3 hours ago, Archy1221 said:

Agree, It does seem obscene, but it’s the job he signed up for and is handsomely paid  

Believe me, I don’t feel sorry for him. I just think it’s stupid that programs do that. 

[Toe]

22 hours ago, Archy1221 said:

If Sims can play consistently good, game after game, no way NU finishes 3-6 in conference and 5-7.   He doesn’t need to play great, just needs to be consistently good.  

 

TBH, I think you're gonna see plenty of good from Sims, but not consistently good. Right now, with Betts gone and Washington injured, WR is our weakest position group (worse than OL). None of them are particularly consistent, and there's not much deep threat. Getting Washington back (soon, hopefully) will obviously help, but even then, Sims can be spotty in the accuracy department. You're gonna see some ugly turnovers at times.