Does NU have a chance in the B1G West?

[chamrocck]

I have said it for years and I’ll keep saying it. We must dominate the LOS if we want to return to greatness. I don’t care if we get a highly recruited QB, RB, or WR if we can’t protect them or get them the ball.  Guess what? Our competitors have more great skill guys but with the big uglies to protect the QB and open the holes. We are not winning that head to head.  OL needs to be of high focus to build depth, you can always find a QB in the portal while developing your own guys.  Wisconsin had a good run with some Rose Bowls and good years. They picked up what we dropped. We need to regain to that level to start with.

[Guy Chamberlin]

14 hours ago, JeffKinney87 said:

 

You may be right or you may be wrong, but I think the question left unanswered is how you get that O-line or D-line recruit to Nebraska? 

 

Right now, I don't care how good of a "recruiter" you bring in.  At the end of the day if you have the greatest salesman in the world offering you a 1995 Blazer, or a piss poor salesman offering you a 2023 Cadillac, for the same price, everyone is taking the Cadillac.  

 

People also talk about how "winning" will bring recruits, but I've always thought that was a chicken or egg argument.  I still stand by the fact that we need to offer something unique to recruits, given our small state population, lack of attractions, etc.  I think that is really the only proven recipe that has worked here?

 

Again, just my two cents.

 

I think it's an answerable question. There are maybe a dozen programs that can currently dangle the Lamborgheni  at the 4 and 5 star recruits. Every other Power 5 will have a lesser vehicle. But that whole system is reliant on the ratings systems, and there are thousands of recruits to work with. Given that most of them are 17 or 18 when they declare, most of them haven't grown into their final bodies yet, or their maturity, or dealt with athletic adversity. So no matter what the ratings agencies say, there are thousands of recruits that might be closer in skill than you think, not to mention under or over valued. You can run any system you want, and just be a little more clever -- or lucky -- in your recruiting.  Things quickly went south for USC for a few years there, even when they had every advantage. Alabama and Clemson are starting to look less shiny, too. 

 

It's kinda crazy how much hinges on one player -- the quarterback. You're Cam Newton one year and you win a National Championship. Cam leaves, team tanks, coach gets fired. We all envied Matt Campbell at Iowa State, but look how much his success hinged on Brock Purdy. Also seems to be the case with identity-based offenses;  98% depends on your choice of quarterback. You still want to recruit the best possible running backs, receivers, and offensive linemen. Osborne could still recruit pretty good receivers because they knew that while they'd never get the stats, the would play for a winner, on a well-scouted team that played on national tv a lot. 

[JeffKinney87]

12 minutes ago, Guy Chamberlin said:

 

I think it's an answerable question. There are maybe a dozen programs that can currently dangle the Lamborgheni  at the 4 and 5 star recruits. Every other Power 5 will have a lesser vehicle. But that whole system is reliant on the ratings systems, and there are thousands of recruits to work with. Given that most of them are 17 or 18 when they declare, most of them haven't grown into their final bodies yet, or their maturity, or dealt with athletic adversity. So no matter what the ratings agencies say, there are thousands of recruits that might be closer in skill than you think, not to mention under or over valued. You can run any system you want, and just be a little more clever -- or lucky -- in your recruiting.  Things quickly went south for USC for a few years there, even when they had every advantage. Alabama and Clemson are starting to look less shiny, too. 

 

It's kinda crazy how much hinges on one player -- the quarterback. You're Cam Newton one year and you win a National Championship. Cam leaves, team tanks, coach gets fired. We all envied Matt Campbell at Iowa State, but look how much his success hinged on Brock Purdy. Also seems to be the case with identity-based offenses;  98% depends on your choice of quarterback. You still want to recruit the best possible running backs, receivers, and offensive linemen. Osborne could still recruit pretty good receivers because they knew that while they'd never get the stats, the would play for a winner, on a well-scouted team that played on national tv a lot. 

That's reasonable, I just tend more to err on the side of Branch Rickey: "Luck is the residue of design" . I would rather have a plan and strategy, then rely on being "more clever or lucky".  Even Alabama's population (not including adjacent states) is 2.5X Nebraska's population. 

[Guy Chamberlin]

14 minutes ago, JeffKinney87 said:

That's reasonable, I just tend more to err on the side of Branch Rickey: "Luck is the residue of design" . I would rather have a plan and strategy, then rely on being "more clever or lucky".  Even Alabama's population (not including adjacent states) is 2.5X Nebraska's population. 

 

Honestly, I understand the concept, but I'm not sure about the design and execution of advertising a super specific offense reliant on a smaller local recruiting base. It relies so much on a single player -- a strong armed or strong-legged quarterback -- and I'm unclear how the rest of the positions shake out. 

[JeffKinney87]

1 minute ago, Guy Chamberlin said:

 

Honestly, I understand the concept, but I'm not sure about the design and execution of advertising a super specific offense reliant on a smaller local recruiting base. It relies so much on a single player -- a strong armed or strong-legged quarterback -- and I'm unclear how the rest of the positions shake out. 

 

I just have an unproven theory, like everyone else.  Absolutely no proof that it would work, much less how it would be designed and executed, but I think relying on "luck" and "cleverness" isn't working.  In my opinion Tom Osborne's system worked with a specialized offense, to slowly build a virtuous cycle...but who knows, I could have it bass akwards.

 

[Enhance]

19 hours ago, JeffKinney87 said:

What can we offer a good QB or good O-line recruit, that other better Power 5 teams cannot?  Why would a good QB or O-line recruit want to come to Nebraska?  Maybe they grew up here, but I don't think we can rely on that because we have such a small population base to choose from. 

I'm not sure what this has to do with my post since I wasn't talking about recruiting.

[Enhance]

4 hours ago, JeffKinney87 said:

That's reasonable, I just tend more to err on the side of Branch Rickey: "Luck is the residue of design" . I would rather have a plan and strategy, then rely on being "more clever or lucky".  Even Alabama's population (not including adjacent states) is 2.5X Nebraska's population. 

Also, why do you think Nebraska football's rebuild strategy is based around luck and cleverness? Like, what is it about Rhule's tenure (and/or that of some recent coaches) that has led you to this opinion?

[Guy Chamberlin]

8 hours ago, JeffKinney87 said:

 

I just have an unproven theory, like everyone else.  Absolutely no proof that it would work, much less how it would be designed and executed, but I think relying on "luck" and "cleverness" isn't working.  In my opinion Tom Osborne's system worked with a specialized offense, to slowly build a virtuous cycle...but who knows, I could have it bass akwards.

 

 

You're not the only one, of course. Use to be a feller name CM Husker who posted pretty much the exact same line of thinking. 

 

Wait a minute.......

[Hooked on Huskers]

 

see Husker and B1G up to date .....

[Slow yer Roll]

On 9/30/2023 at 1:46 AM, chamrocck said:

I have said it for years and I’ll keep saying it. We must dominate the LOS if we want to return to greatness. I don’t care if we get a highly recruited QB, RB, or WR if we can’t protect them or get them the ball.  Guess what? Our competitors have more great skill guys but with the big uglies to protect the QB and open the holes. We are not winning that head to head.  OL needs to be of high focus to build depth, you can always find a QB in the portal while developing your own guys.  Wisconsin had a good run with some Rose Bowls and good years. They picked up what we dropped. We need to regain to that level to start with.

Yep, sell your soul for above average O lineman. 

 

The foundation, the corner stone, the no.1 building block.

 

 

[runningblind]

6 hours ago, Slow yer Roll said:

Yep, sell your soul for above average O lineman. 

 

The foundation, the corner stone, the no.1 building block.

 

 

Go offer $3-5 million to every 5 star lineman and Raiola.  Yesterday.  There are ways to get this moving and we keep being told we have NIL money that is near the top.  Prove it.  Even if you fail, publish your offers and you'll get other kids interested.  Your fan base knows you're trying then also. 

[Hooked on Huskers]

I think last West division race.

 

2024 ..... no more West division ???

[BigRedBuster]

Wrong thread. 

[Red Five]

On 9/26/2023 at 12:24 PM, Red Five said:

After Week 4 (still some preseason priors built into the models that will get phased out over the next couple weeks)

 

Nebraska #59 in SP+ / #65 in FPI

 

Minnesota #54 / #50
Colorado #79 / #68
N. Illinois #121 / #111
Louisiana Tech #111 / #114
Michigan #1 / #12
Illinois #52 / #54
North­western #93 / #72
Purdue #77 / #67
Michigan St #63  / #59
Maryland #33 / #30
Wisconsin #27 / #27
Iowa #39 / #38

 

I wouldn't be surprised if we are sitting at 4-2 in conference (with a bowl bid wrapped up) and controlling our own destiny in the West going into the Maryland game. 

 

Conversely, I also wouldn't be surprised if we are 2-4 in conference going into the Maryland game.

 

 

After Week 5 (still some preseason priors built into the models that will get phased out over the next couple weeks)

 

Nebraska #69 in SP+ / #73 in FPI

 

Minnesota #46 / #49
Colorado #76 / #60
N. Illinois #116 / #107
Louisiana Tech #99 / #110
Michigan #1 / #8
Illinois #58 / #66
North­western #95 / #72
Purdue #68 / #53
Michigan St #57  / #59
Maryland #31 / #25
Wisconsin #25 / #24
Iowa #38 / #39

 

As I have has said before, I wouldn't be surprised if we are sitting at 4-2 in conference (with a bowl bid wrapped up) and controlling our own destiny in the West going into the Maryland game. 

 

Conversely, I also wouldn't be surprised if we are 2-4 in conference going into the Maryland game.

[Red Five]

On 9/26/2023 at 12:27 PM, Red Five said:

 

FPI Chance to win the West after week 4:

Wisconsin 59.7%

Iowa 23.2%

Illinois 7.6%

Minnesota 4.8%

Northwestern 2.0%

Nebraska 2.0%

Purdue 0.7%

 

FPI Chance to win the West after week 5:

Wisconsin 64.9%

Iowa 25.3%

Minnesota 3.9%

Purdue 2.2%

Illinois 1.6%

Northwestern 1.5%

Nebraska 0.7%

 

So you're telling me there's a chance...