Stewie Mandel's Take On Nebraska

[cuinknk]

Me personally, I don't EXPECT us to be in a MNC hunt.

 

I should hope that's the tenor of most fans. Anyone expecting us to vie for the MNC after what we saw from our offense last year is heavily into the kool-aid. We need massive improvements to be in contention. It's possible, but I'm guessing one or two losses, and that's without brain cramp games like ISU.

 

The brain cramp game is the biggest wild card for NU. However, I would argue that 8 turnovers is a bigger fluke than NU putting up 33 in the Holiday Bowl. NU will be favored to win every game leading up to October 16. I think most would agree that game is a toss-up, but if they win that one, they would for sure be favored in all of their remaining games.

 

Worse case scenario, IMO, is a 10-2 season (losing to Texas and to an opponent they "should" beat), which would still put NU in the Top Ten at the end of the season (depending on CCG and bowl game results). The ranking seems justified to me.

 

Let's assume we do go 10-2. Texas is the toughest team we play, so it's reasonable we could stay in the top 10. However, Mizzou is likely the second best team we play. If we lose to them, chances are we don't even make the Big 12 Championship Game. If we don't make it to that game, I don't see how we could still be ranked anywhere close to the top 10 at the end of the season.

 

I still think NU could finish in the top ten, even with losses to Texas and Missouri. Both Iowa and Penn State had two conference losses last year, and ended the season in the top ten.

 

Even NU, with four losses, finished ranked 14th last season.

[knapplc]

Question: What does the "M" stand for in "MNC"?

Mythical. Since there is no playoff and championships are awarded based on opinion, it's not a true championship. Never has been in College Football. Maybe someday there will be when they wise up and have a playoff, but until then, it's mythical.

[dubsker]

Question: What does the "M" stand for in "MNC"?

Mythical. Since there is no playoff and championships are awarded based on opinion, it's not a true championship. Never has been in College Football. Maybe someday there will be when they wise up and have a playoff, but until then, it's mythical.

 

Disappointment from losing the game itself aside, extra motivation for me wanting Nebraska win the Big XII title last year was wanting to see chaos reign and the BCS implode. Man, I was all pumped up for lawsuits and everything. The whole popcorn phenomenon...

[junior4949]

Me personally, I don't EXPECT us to be in a MNC hunt.

 

I should hope that's the tenor of most fans. Anyone expecting us to vie for the MNC after what we saw from our offense last year is heavily into the kool-aid. We need massive improvements to be in contention. It's possible, but I'm guessing one or two losses, and that's without brain cramp games like ISU.

 

The brain cramp game is the biggest wild card for NU. However, I would argue that 8 turnovers is a bigger fluke than NU putting up 33 in the Holiday Bowl. NU will be favored to win every game leading up to October 16. I think most would agree that game is a toss-up, but if they win that one, they would for sure be favored in all of their remaining games.

 

Worse case scenario, IMO, is a 10-2 season (losing to Texas and to an opponent they "should" beat), which would still put NU in the Top Ten at the end of the season (depending on CCG and bowl game results). The ranking seems justified to me.

 

Let's assume we do go 10-2. Texas is the toughest team we play, so it's reasonable we could stay in the top 10. However, Mizzou is likely the second best team we play. If we lose to them, chances are we don't even make the Big 12 Championship Game. If we don't make it to that game, I don't see how we could still be ranked anywhere close to the top 10 at the end of the season.

 

I still think NU could finish in the top ten, even with losses to Texas and Missouri. Both Iowa and Penn State had two conference losses last year, and ended the season in the top ten.

 

Even NU, with four losses, finished ranked 14th last season.

 

The reason we finished 14th last year stems from the fact that we nearly won the Big 12 Championship Game and then demolished Arizona. Had we have been beaten badly in the Big 12 Championship Game, we probably wouldn't have even been ranked in the top 20. Looking at Mizzou's schedule, they could lose to OU and A&M but still represent the North just by beating Nebraska. The only way I see Nebraska staying in the top 10 at years end with two losses is a loss against Texas and a very close loss in the Big 12 Championship Game against a higher ranked Texas or OU team.

[REDSTEEL]

only 500,000 Husker fans?

 

Okay sound off: one

Two

[Ringer02]

The first question in Stewart Mandel's Mailbag this AM focused on Nebraska:

 

Georgia in '08, Ole Miss in '09. What team this year is most likely to be the "sexy" pick that falls far short of expectations?

-- Jared, Columbus, Ohio

 

A little context: Georgia went 10-3 in '08, Ole Miss 9-4 in '09, and both played in semi-major bowls (Georgia beat Michigan State in the Capital One Bowl, Ole Miss lost to Oklahoma State in the Cotton Bowl.)

Link

 

I'm pretty sure Ole miss won that game....stopped reading right there

[zoogs]

The fact that a national columnist incorrectly remembered the outcome of one game does not take away from the value of his argument. You may or may not want to hear what he has to say, but things like that are just errata.

 

And I think he has a good point. We've done nothing to justify a Top 10 ranking. IMO, if we aren't Top 10 teams the previous year, we don't deserve to start out as Top 10 teams the next year. It's always a projection and it's easier to go down than up. We are a team that should not be in a position to disappoint, considering we haven't justified such elite expectations to begin with. High, yes, but not MNC high.

 

Georgia and Ole Miss are two really excellent examples, actually. I 100% agree. Those preseasons, seeing Georgia and Ole Miss getting all these preseason accolades, I thought, really??? And while they went on to have nice seasons, they still disappointed. An excellent point by Mandel, who isn't always the best but is pretty decent. I hope that we as a fanbase are not setting ourselves up for disappointment. Fanbases have a way of doing that.

 

Bo's got the team headed in the right direction, but he's got them grounded too. Are we?...

[huKSer]

only 500,000 Husker fans?

 

Okay sound off: one

He's not saying that there are only 500,000 Husker fans, but that that is how many are going to send him mail if the Huskers win it all.

only 500,000 Husker emails?

 

Okay sound off: one

[Enhance]

That was a well written response by Mandel. I don't agree with his overall assessment, but he at least backed his opinions up. The only thing he didn't really address was the QB situation (he assumed that Lee would be the starter). From reading this board, it doesn't seem like it's a certainty that Lee will be the starter.

I think that has more or less to do with a lot of people being apprehensive about the QB situation. You have the "I still believe in Lee" camp that will defend his injury to the death, the "I still believe in Green", and then the "Martinez is the future" camp. And then, you have the apathetic guys like me who don't care who starts as long as he wins us football games.

 

From my guesses, Lee will be the starter. I don't think Green or Martinez can unseat his experience and knowledge of the playbook. Expect to see all three get looks during the off season though. One writer said that the guy who starts the Washington game will probably be our Big 12 starter, which I think is a pretty safe bet save any injuries.

[corncraze]

Ehhhh he's making some lose ties here, I don't think were the sexy pick at all, I'd actually say that'd b Oklahoma this year. Infact there r many writers who have proclaimed our short coming this season such as this writer. Ole Miss and Georgia were the sexy picks due to their high powered offenses: sneed & mccluster for miss and Stafford, Moreno, & Green. We have been reamed 4 our offense and our inability to find a qb all offseason. When on earth is is a big stalwart d sexy?? Also both old miss and Georgia played sec schedules, making it harder to live up to the hype. Meanwhile this has been arguably our most favorable schedule this decade. Washington with their high powered offense is a more sexy pick, especially when so many"analysts"pick us to lose that game. When is a defense sexy?? Last time I checked Iowa is near our ranking with a top major d and a better offense and they aren't a sexy pick. Offenses make a team sexy and defenses make teams resemble more of a brawny force that is respected, instead of lauded over.

[bleedNUred]

I'd say that's a fair unbiased assumption honestly.

[dubsker]

The fact that a national columnist incorrectly remembered the outcome of one game does not take away from the value of his argument. You may or may not want to hear what he has to say, but things like that are just errata.

 

And I think he has a good point. We've done nothing to justify a Top 10 ranking. IMO, if we aren't Top 10 teams the previous year, we don't deserve to start out as Top 10 teams the next year. It's always a projection and it's easier to go down than up. We are a team that should not be in a position to disappoint, considering we haven't justified such elite expectations to begin with. High, yes, but not MNC high.

 

Georgia and Ole Miss are two really excellent examples, actually. I 100% agree. Those preseasons, seeing Georgia and Ole Miss getting all these preseason accolades, I thought, really??? And while they went on to have nice seasons, they still disappointed. An excellent point by Mandel, who isn't always the best but is pretty decent. I hope that we as a fanbase are not setting ourselves up for disappointment. Fanbases have a way of doing that.

 

Bo's got the team headed in the right direction, but he's got them grounded too. Are we?...

 

I agree with what you said, but I'm still going to enjoy the ride. It's been a lot of fun being able to talk about all the great things the Huskers might do over some beers with friends and what not. It sure beats the heck out of hoping our defense manages to land in at least the top half of D-1 (like before 2008). I think that Bo will keep the guys focused on one game at a time. Judging from his story about Suh, he doesn't have a problem knocking his players down a few pegs if he thinks they need it. I don't worry too much about the fans staying grounded. Worst case scenario we just look stupid on a few message boards for drinking way too much of that delicious pre-fall camp kool-aid.

[huskered17]

That was a well written response by Mandel. I don't agree with his overall assessment, but he at least backed his opinions up. The only thing he didn't really address was the QB situation (he assumed that Lee would be the starter). From reading this board, it doesn't seem like it's a certainty that Lee will be the starter.

I think that has more or less to do with a lot of people being apprehensive about the QB situation. You have the "I still believe in Lee" camp that will defend his injury to the death, the "I still believe in Green", and then the "Martinez is the future" camp. And then, you have the apathetic guys like me who don't care who starts as long as he wins us football games.

 

From my guesses, Lee will be the starter. I don't think Green or Martinez can unseat his experience and knowledge of the playbook. Expect to see all three get looks during the off season though. One writer said that the guy who starts the Washington game will probably be our Big 12 starter, which I think is a pretty safe bet save any injuries.

 

 

 

Lee has to be better than he was last year. Before he was hurt. I don't put any stock in the Holiday Bowl win. Beating an Arizona team that can look like a top 10 team one week and a bottom ten the next, is what they have done for the last 20+ years.

 

GBR!!!

[knapplc]

I didn't make this clear when I posted this, but I also agree with Stewart's assessment of the Huskers. I think that until we prove against decent opposition that we can effectively move the ball and score, and do it more than once (as in, the Holiday Bowl, which I take with a grain of salt), talk of Nebraska being worthy of a top ten ranking and/or a BCS bowl bid are premature.

 

Since I know you're going to ask, here's why the Holiday Bowl results don't impress me: In 1998 the Huskers played Arizona in the Holiday Bowl. They had a crummy year by the standards of 1994-1997 Nebraska, and they were down because they were in a "lesser" bowl. We played like crap and we lost to a team we should have beaten. Flash forward 11 years and you have a rematch, only this time Arizona is the team feeling more than Nebraska that they were in a lesser bowl than they deserved. Arizona was one or two plays away from a BCS game, and they fully felt they deserved to be there. They were disappointed in playing the Holiday Bowl, and they felt Nebraska was a lesser quality opponent.

 

Right, wrong or indifferent, no matter how you feel about this, it's a fact that emotion plays a large role in bowl games. Nebraska's defense is definitely better than Arizona's offense, but our offense was not 33 points better than their defense.

 

So removing the overblown hype we're getting from the Holiday Bowl win and looking mostly at our body of work over the course of the season, we see that we have a HUGE amount of work to do to improve on offense - which we'll need to do to legitimately be a top ten/BCS contending team. That's why I think Mandel's assessment is fair. It jives with my own.

[billdozer15]

Good assessment, cant argue with much of what Mandel says. I do think we have the pieces on defense to be better considering we are adding depth and athletic talent across the board. Even with the loss of Suh who was very good, I see our defense remaining at a high level. The offense will be better, they were young and dinged the entire year. I cant think an offense that is returning 10 starters wont be better. So if the D remains in the top 20 and our offense improves to just avg as Mandel stated that should get us to the CCG and give us a good opportunity to win it. Not expecting NCG but we have a very favorable schedule and with a little improvement it is not out of the realm.

 

My prediction 10-2 regular season. I think we beat UT, but lose to A&M and one other game.