Athlon: Ranking Roster Talent by Recruiting Classes

[Moiraine]

Winning football games has a luck component. You cannot predict any outcome based solely on past results, while ignoring all other factors. To argue otherwise is factually incorrect. And you've made numerous factually incorrect statements in this thread.

 

Also, why is your magical number 12? I didn't see you on this board saying this is the holy grail of predictors when they only had 9 seasons in a row. At what number of correctly predicted seasons in a row did you consider them 100% accurate at predicting the next season's outcome?

You can predict, just not with a 100% probability

 

I would say the magical number is over 9000 but apparently Psycho is easily satisfied.

[JJkinz]

My magical number is 69.

[Sargon]

8 schools won the most recent 14 NC's, 2002-2015. All 8 are in the top 9 of the Athlon 5 year recruiting ranking linked in the OP.

 

Georgia didn't win one...coach fired. 2001 was Miami with legendary talent. Before that FSU and Tenn with crazy talent. '95 Huskers had Moses at head coach and players like Brook and Ahman were second string. Amazing player talent.

 

I agree with Psycho. Recruit at an elite level or no soup for you.

 

NU is years away. Maybe in '17 an 18 or so class. Maybe even better the following year. Hopefully. No NC's will come from that, however. It'll take at least one if not 2 top 10 classes to have a shot and even then Bama and LSU and Ohio State and FSU would need to cool off.

[Moiraine]

I agree with Psycho. Recruit at an elite level or no soup for you.

 

I think most agree with Psycho, that recruiting is very important.

 

What people don't agree with is the stuff he's saying about prediction/probability that has no basis in reality except what exists in his own mind.

 

I've found the original topic and have come to the conclusion that this guy will never realize he's wrong. Until the pattern is broken, at which point he'll pretend it didn't happen.

 

http://www.huskerboard.com/index.php?/topic/78379-why-recruiting-matters-and-the-importance-of-signing-day/?hl=%20100%%20%20probability

[NUance]

 

I agree with Psycho. Recruit at an elite level or no soup for you.

 

I think most agree with Psycho, that recruiting is very important.

 

What people don't agree with is the stuff he's saying about prediction/probability that has no basis in reality except what exists in his own mind.

 

I've found the original topic and have come to the conclusion that this guy will never realize he's wrong. Until the pattern is broken, at which point he'll pretend it didn't happen.

 

http://www.huskerboard.com/index.php?/topic/78379-why-recruiting-matters-and-the-importance-of-signing-day/?hl=%20100%%20%20probability

 

 

Yeah, part of the problem is the wording. We all agree that recruiting is crucial to success. But it's not a fact that the next national championship will go to a team that meets the recruiting metric (, as you've said repeatedly). Highly likely? Yes. Maybe a 95% chance. Maybe 99%. But not 100%.

[Scratchtown]

I find this stuff interesting especially on a board like this where a program that used to be elite status has a fan based clinching to that word even though they will never reach that level again with numerous factors at play.

 

It's funny how adamant people get about there teams when on the defensive. While I agree with Psycho more than I don't, and Moiraine is also technically correct about how it CAN'T be 100 probability. Heaven forbid, the teams that are in the metric could all have a Marshall incident and then someone on the outside would win. Nebraska needs to win one of the worst divisions in college football first before talking about national titles.

 

Oregon has its limitations and Nebraska has its and so does everyone else.

 

The things in my opinion I believe Nebraska has going against itself. Things that fan's need to remember EVERYTIME they start speaking out.

 

Location = Perception - Lincoln has that rural feel to it. If NU was located in Omaha, I REALLY think recruiting would be better. (my opinion)

TV exposure - Nebraska gets plenty of it, however, now EVERY program gets exposed to TV. No longer an incentive to go to NU.

B1G Division - If I'm a highly touted recruit, I don't want my rivalry games to be against Iowa, Illinois, Purdue, NW. Why played for a program that never plays anyone good in their own division.

Winning is Overrated - It used to be that winning breeds success but I'm not so sure anymore. Iowa should have had a great class last year. Winning doesn't breed great recruiting.

Weather - It is very rare to have a nice day in Lincoln during football season. It's either super hot, cold, windy, snowy.

Scholly Limits - If this needs explained you need to do some research.

 

Things NU has going for it.

 

Fan Craze

Facilities

Money

[Moiraine]

Isn't Iowa's class decent this season? Or at least a lot better than usual. They didn't have a lot of time to capitalize for the 2016 recruiting class?

[Mavric]

Winning is Overrated - It used to be that winning breeds success but I'm not so sure anymore. Iowa should have had a great class last year. Winning doesn't breed great recruiting.

Weather - It is very rare to have a nice day in Lincoln during football season. It's either super hot, cold, windy, snowy.

 

I think you have some good points but I disagree with these two. I definitely think winning affects recruiting but there is a little delay. A lot of recruits had already committed before Iowa rose very far in the polls last year. But they currently have the #15 class on 247 after averaging in the 50s the last five years.

 

I don't think weather is a huge factor to a lot of recruits but I've been to quite a few home games over the last four years and most of them have been fairly nice. The first game or two can be pretty hot and the last game is usually pretty chilly but most of the games from late September to early November have been really nice.

[Sargon]

Sample size 12. Correlation 1.0. "It's mandatory...."

------Vs. ----

It's not a law, not mandatory.

 

Got it.

 

Moiraine, I'd like to point out to you that you asked above....paraphrasing now ....."how are two (very) different forecasting methods....different?" (post 21 para 2). That's not a very good way to win this argument (IMO, just sayin).

[BigRedBuster]

I don't think weather should be a factor. Very very seldom have I ever gone to a Husker game in Lincoln where I sat in snow or froze my butt off. On top of that, if these kids want to play in the NFL, they better get used to it.

 

However, I know other schools use weather against us. The exaggerate basically what I said here claiming the kid will be playing in snow....etc.

 

I can't remember what recruit it was last year (possibly Lamar Jackson) once he committed to us, he received a number of tweets about the weather and how he is going to have fun playing in freezing snow...etc.

[Red Five]

The things in my opinion I believe Nebraska has going against itself. Things that fan's need to remember EVERYTIME they start speaking out.

 

Weather - It is very rare to have a nice day in Lincoln during football season. It's either super hot, cold, windy, snowy.

 

[84HuskerLaw]

Recruiting to Nebraska has its pros and cons surely. To list some:

 

Pros:

1. Nice fall weather when compared to a majority of the other Big Ten schools. Our fall weather is actually BETTER than most SEC schools who have to suffer interminable HEAT and HUMIDITY from August to late October at least. While Nebraska has its share of wintery weather, it is rarely before the last couple weeks of November certainly. Average high temp on Thanksgiving Day is around 45 degrees I would say. By December, it gets pretty cold but even the coldest Nebraska winters are only about 3 months (December, January and February) and which are normally broken up by warming spells where temps above freezing and sunshine can be expected. We don't have winters that approach those of the northern tier of states or the northeast certainly. Summers feature plenty of sunshine and indeed some 'hot' days above 93 degrees but rarely do the heat waves impact Nebraska like the southern half of the country. Texas and Oklahoma and even into southern Kansas are scorching hot for many days from mid June to mid September or later. The west coast has a lot of good weather and of course everyone associates great weather with Florida, etc but for football, temps over 90 are NOT fun and can be a bugger for players in all that gear, etc. Having been a player, I would say the temps in the upper 40s to lower 60s is GREAT. We can say we have lots of good football weather honestly and accurately. Fans may complain about the wind but for players who want to win, wind can be an advantage for the home team

 

2. Great fans and plenty of fan attention. Husker players are admired and appreciated greatly by the average fans around campus, Lincoln and the whole state. While critics abound, this is pretty much the norm across all but the least successful programs in my experience.

 

3. Great facilites and University support. Whether it is the stadium, locker rooms, practice facilities, superb weight and nutrition programs, ACADEMIC support that is second to none, etc., Husker sports and football particularly is a national leader without a doubt.

 

4. Tradition of winning with one of winningest program in history with few peers from anywhere. After about nearly 60 years and high graduation and academic rates, no players have graduated who didn't have a lot more wins than losses. Huskers WIN!!!! That alone should help recruits decide where to go to school.

 

5. Excellent coaches, administrators and dedication to excellence. I have never really heard a single complaint about the commitment of the University to its student athletes to be successful in life (inside and outside of sports). We are NO. 1 in producing academic all americans, etc, etc. I dare say there are no more than half a dozen schools in the nation that even compete with Nebraska in this area.

 

CONS:

1. Nebraska recruits nationwide and attracts a diverse group of athletes to represent the school. While the diversity and experience and friendships built are life lasting, travel to and from the school by the athlete and his or her family, friends and others is challenging due to distance and so on. Travel by air or ground can be more complicated than it may be in some of the nation's largest metor areas. Lincoln is not a BIG CITY and for some this is viewed as a shortcoming. Not for me, personally, but for some who seek the attributes of big cities.

 

2. There are some educational major areas where other schools may have advantages even though Univ of Nebraska Lincoln provides a very broad array of disciplines, etc.

 

3. Nebraska has a good reputation academically but certainly is not considered "Ivy League" in reputation and status.

 

4. Some recruits are seeking to participate in other conferences such as SEC, Pac 12, etc. Obviously this can be a disadvantage when recruiting students from the regions of the country closer in proximity to those leagues.

 

5. Historically, Nebraska was recognized as "running team" and for players who want to be wide receivers and passing QBs looking to play in the NFL, Nebraska was not viewed favorably. Rightfully so. Today, this image is changing and with the current effort to introduce more passing and 'pro style' schemes into the offensive systems, these players are now considering playing for Big Red. Running backs and linemen inclined to prefer the run game will reconsider but running the football will always be an important part of football in Lincoln. Our reputation remains helpful in this respect but may be suffering in recruiting certain player types.

[teachercd]

I don't think weather should be a factor. Very very seldom have I ever gone to a Husker game in Lincoln where I sat in snow or froze my butt off. On top of that, if these kids want to play in the NFL, they better get used to it.

 

However, I know other schools use weather against us. The exaggerate basically what I said here claiming the kid will be playing in snow....etc.

 

I can't remember what recruit it was last year (possibly Lamar Jackson) once he committed to us, he received a number of tweets about the weather and how he is going to have fun playing in freezing snow...etc.

I agree with you… Most of the time when I go to Lincoln for games the weather is pretty decent. With that said it doesn't mean the weather year-round is nice. Nebraska for the most part has miserable summers and miserable winters, horrible access to lakes and things like that. You can find a lot more fun things to do in other places.

[Husker Psycho]

In the last two years these teams have recruited these players...

 

2016: Alabama 17 elite players (3 five stars)

Florida State 18 elite players (1 five star)

LSU 18 elite players (2 five star)

Ohio State 18 elite players (1 five star)

 

Nebraska 5 elite players

 

 

 

2015: Alabama 20 elite players (5 five stars)

Florida State 14 elite players (4 five stars)

LSU 13 elite players (2 five stars)

Ohio State 18 elite players

 

Nebraska 4 elite players

 

 

This is just 2 years of "roster talent"

[cm husker]

At least 4 of the last 4 coaches recruited about the same.

 

How does NU go about bucking its historic fortunes? Cheat?