SBNation: If Vegas is right about these 8 college football teams, will they fire their coaches?

[Nebfanatic]

.

[NUance]

 

Michigan recruiting rankings under Hoke:

 

2011: #21 (20 commitments)

2012: #7 (25 commitments)

2013 #5 (27 commitments)

2014 #31 (16 commitments)

 

 

Say what you will about Hoke as a coach. But the guy brought in tons of talent that Harbaugh has benefited from. Two top 10 classes in his four years as HC. And Harbaugh has kept it up. Other than his transition year in 2015, he's done a heck of a good job bringing in talent.

 

So Mike Riley is perhaps our Hoke (who had to rebuild after Lloyd Carr and Rich Rodriguez messed the Michigan program up) while Scott Frost is our Harbaugh?

 

 

I think Riley has done a better job of gathering assistants than Hoke did at Michigan.

 

Scott Frost = Harbaugh? Well, for one thing Scott Frost isn't an egotistical jackass. So there's that.

[Nebfanatic]

You make a lot of assumptions, both about Harbaugh and me.

the whole premise of my comment about Michigan not winning anything of significance since Harbaughs arrival was based in defense of the idea Harbaugh is a quality coach and Riley is not as stated in the post prior to mine. Is it that Harbaugh is a quality coach and our coach is not or is it that they are both quality coaches, but one coach inherited more talent? I have argued nothing more than that in this thread, even alluding to the idea Harbaugh is a better coach than ours. You are consistently critical of Riley so if you do think he is a quality coach you have a funny way of showing it.

 

And with that I say goodbye.

[Kiyoat Husker]

My guess for the 2017-18 season:

 

5-7: fired

6-6: fans and boosters calling for his head. he might survive if he keeps the recruiting class together.

7-5: disappointing season, but not fired. Coach Cav might get fired.

8-4: meh - neither good nor bad.

9-3: probably the minimum for fans to call it a good season.

10 or more wins: very successful season- optimism reigns.

[Saunders]

 

You make a lot of assumptions, both about Harbaugh and me.

the whole premise of my comment about Michigan not winning anything of significance since Harbaughs arrival was based in defense of the idea Harbaugh is a quality coach and Riley is not as stated in the post prior to mine. Is it that Harbaugh is a quality coach and our coach is not or is it that they are both quality coaches, but one coach inherited more talent? I have argued nothing more than that in this thread, even alluding to the idea Harbaugh is a better coach than ours. You are consistently critical of Riley so if you do think he is a quality coach you have a funny way of showing it.

 

And with that I say goodbye.

 

Harbaugh did things before he came to Michigan though. He turned Stanford... STANFORD... into a top 10 program. I like Mike, think he's a good dude, and hope he does well. But what Harbaugh did at Stanford is more impressive than anything Riley has done so far.

[Mavric]

 

You make a lot of assumptions, both about Harbaugh and me.

the whole premise of my comment about Michigan not winning anything of significance since Harbaughs arrival was based in defense of the idea Harbaugh is a quality coach and Riley is not as stated in the post prior to mine. Is it that Harbaugh is a quality coach and our coach is not or is it that they are both quality coaches, but one coach inherited more talent? I have argued nothing more than that in this thread, even alluding to the idea Harbaugh is a better coach than ours. You are consistently critical of Riley so if you do think he is a quality coach you have a funny way of showing it.

 

There is a significant difference between this and the last thing you accused me of considering Riley.

 

And you're free to assume that the only difference between Harbaugh's accomplishments and Riley's is the amount of talent they inherited. But that's all it is - an assumption.

[Guy Chamberlin]

Harbaugh has had an immediate, positive impact on every program he has taken over. Michigan is no exception. Weird guy and a remarkable football coach at the same time. Doesn't hurt anyone to admit it.

 

Harbaugh was never available for the Nebraska job.

[jaws]

I wonder how successful Harbaugh would be if Michigan played in the B1G West and didn't play OSU every year. Just like Harbaugh benefited from Hoke's player, Riley benefits from playing in the B1G West.

[NUinID]

 

You make a lot of assumptions, both about Harbaugh and me.

the whole premise of my comment about Michigan not winning anything of significance since Harbaughs arrival was based in defense of the idea Harbaugh is a quality coach and Riley is not as stated in the post prior to mine. Is it that Harbaugh is a quality coach and our coach is not or is it that they are both quality coaches, but one coach inherited more talent? I have argued nothing more than that in this thread, even alluding to the idea Harbaugh is a better coach than ours. You are consistently critical of Riley so if you do think he is a quality coach you have a funny way of showing it.

 

And with that I say goodbye.

 

 

Nebfanatic I will play along with your hypothetical. If we swapped talent with Michigan I think we would have a better record over the last 2 years than we have had. How many more games do they win is anyones geuss, but I think they win 3-4 more games with Michigans talent. They have been loaded on the defensive side of the ball. Even under Hoke they played pretty good defense most of the time. His offense just had no identity.

 

Harbaugh is a great coach and there is no getting around that. I think MR is a good coach also he is a great x and o guy and teaches guys how to play football very well, but I am still not sold that he is a winner yet. I am not sure that he has the where with all or drive or what ever is required to really be that top end consistantly winning coach.

[Guy Chamberlin]

I wonder how successful Harbaugh would be if Michigan played in the B1G West and didn't play OSU every year. Just like Harbaugh benefited from Hoke's player, Riley benefits from playing in the B1G West.

 

Michigan barely lost to OSU in overtime last year and was nationally relevant all season. Harbaugh is already a huge success at Michigan and he'll be formidable until he alienates everyone in the administration -- roughly four or five more seasons.

 

Harbaugh is a better football coach than Mike Riley AND he likely has better talent at Michigan. (Riley & Harbaugh split the four games when they were head coaches at OSU & Stanford -- talent level there is up for debate)

 

Harbaugh wouldn't have gone 6-7 with the same Nebraska players in 2015. I just don't see it.

 

But we never had a chance at Jim Harbaugh -- the lone marquee hire in college football that year, returning to his alma matter for a sh#t ton of money.

 

We got Mike Riley instead. And Mike Riley still might turn out to be a smart hire. I think we need four full seasons before we make that call.

[teachercd]

My guess for the 2017-18 season:

 

5-7: fired

6-6: fans and boosters calling for his head. he might survive if he keeps the recruiting class together.

7-5: disappointing season, but not fired. Coach Cav might get fired.

8-4: meh - neither good nor bad.

9-3: probably the minimum for fans to call it a good season.

10 or more wins: very successful season- optimism reigns.

First of all, I like that you have the stones to put records up there, most Riley fans (no clue if you are or are not) will not do that.

I think that anything under 8 wins equals an axing.

5 or 6 wins and SE should just come out and apologize to all the fans.

9 wins and he keeps his job for sure and basically starts to be the Nice-Bo (which means 9 wins will keep him around for about 4 more years)

[TGHusker]

My guess for the 2017-18 season:

 

5-7: fired

6-6: fans and boosters calling for his head. he might survive if he keeps the recruiting class together.

7-5: disappointing season, but not fired. Coach Cav might get fired.

8-4: meh - neither good nor bad.

9-3: probably the minimum for fans to call it a good season.

10 or more wins: very successful season- optimism reigns.

As others have said, Riley has improved recruiting and also has added some quality coaches. But now he must endure his toughest 2 year schedule since he's been here. This year and next, he will have to survive on his and his coaching staff's skills. The recruits that he is attracting now will have minimal impact overall - outside of a few - to affect the seasonal results. He better hope that QB Lee is the real deal and can carry this team. Otherwise, I don't think he survives the next 2 years - then we say hello coach Frost - just in time to 'harvest' the benefits of MR's recruiting.

[Kiyoat Husker]

 

My guess for the 2017-18 season:

 

5-7: fired

6-6: fans and boosters calling for his head. he might survive if he keeps the recruiting class together.

7-5: disappointing season, but not fired. Coach Cav might get fired.

8-4: meh - neither good nor bad.

9-3: probably the minimum for fans to call it a good season.

10 or more wins: very successful season- optimism reigns.

First of all, I like that you have the stones to put records up there, most Riley fans (no clue if you are or are not) will not do that.

I think that anything under 8 wins equals an axing.

5 or 6 wins and SE should just come out and apologize to all the fans.

9 wins and he keeps his job for sure and basically starts to be the Nice-Bo (which means 9 wins will keep him around for about 4 more years)

 

 

Thanks, I guess. I mean, isn't that what this thread is supposed to be about - a threshold for firing Riley?

 

I get that the Bo 9-win threshold wasn't about a specific number of wins as an expectation every single year. There were lots of other factors.

 

However, I think that based on what we have seen, most people should be able to come up with a number that would be unacceptable for this season (year 3), regardless of all the other factors. For me, 6-6 with his guy at QB would be pretty weak, even as a first-year starter. That would mean getting beaten by multiple teams we shouldn't lose to this year IMO. No excuse for 6-6. 7-5 would honestly make me ill, as well.

 

And you are right that I am a Riley fan. I'm willing to give the guy some leeway in the first few years, but at some point we need to see SOMETHING exceptional....

 

Some "quarterback whispering" would be a good start.

[Mavric]

Interesting how many were quick to play the "at least we weren't getting blown out" card for the 2015 season.

 

Whoops.

[teachercd]

Interesting how many were quick to play the "at least we weren't getting blown out" card for the 2015 season.

 

Whoops.

For sure!

 

All the "Bocuses" are gone

 

1. A monkey could win 9 games...7 wins are built into the schedule

2. At least there are no blowouts

3. Can't lose to Wisconsin and Iowa

 

I guess now we are sort of starting to see the Bocuse that the schedule is going to be tough. Well...I want a coach that wins tough games. We all do. Hopefully that is Riley and hopefully he goes 10+ wins this year.