it's all about recruiting

[Mavric]

21 hours ago, Huskerzoo said:

Related to this, there are two options. Either Scott Frost has no clue what he's talking about when he says we need to clear some rot from the team or it's all about recruiting. 

 

No those are the only two options.  Those aren't even really related.

 

There can be some "rot" that needs to be cleared out.  That can come in a lot of forms.  And the only way it can be replaced is by getting new players ("recruiting").  But that doesn't mean the only other option is all about recruiting.  The good recruits we already have may not have been developed as well as they could have been.  They might have been doing what was asked of them but what was being asked/taught wasn't good enough.  

 

So there's more to it that just recruiting.

[Mavric]

18 hours ago, BoSolich said:

yea, but we never had a top 15 class which is what this thread is all about.

 

As was noted by @BigRedBuster the stats cited in the OP are barely a 50% correlation to what you stated.  So I don't think it's that strong of a case.

 

Plus I doubt many of the currently Top 25 teams are leaning very heavily on the Class of 2018 so it's not that telling of a stat.

[Huskers93-97]

I wonder what our recruiting rankings ACTUALLY look like when you consider the last 5 years most of the highly rated guys from our classes never made it to campus or transferred after 1 month or 1 year. So what is the ranking of our recruiting classes that we actually have on campus right now? I bet it is not necessarily the best in the west.

[Mavric]

Just now, Huskers93-97 said:

I wonder what our recruiting rankings ACTUALLY look like when you consider the last 5 years most of the highly rated guys from our classes never made it to campus or transferred after 1 month or 1 year. So what is the ranking of our recruiting classes that we actually have on campus right now? I bet it is not necessarily the best in the west.

 

You don't have to wonder.  247 answers that question for you.

 

We're #25 this year.  Pretty much where we've been for the last three years.  So our roster attrition is pretty similar to everyone else's.

 

It actually is the best in the West, by the way.

 

25 - Nebraska

35 - Wisconsin

42 - Iowa

44 - Northwestern

48 - Minnesota

58 - Illinois

71 - Purdue

 

Did I mention it's not all about recruiting?

[Huskers93-97]

2 minutes ago, Mavric said:

 

You don't have to wonder.  247 answers that question for you.

 

We're #25 this year.  Pretty much where we've been for the last three years.  So our roster attrition is pretty similar to everyone else's.

 

It actually is the best in the West, by the way.

 

25 - Nebraska

35 - Wisconsin

42 - Iowa

44 - Northwestern

48 - Minnesota

58 - Illinois

71 - Purdue

 

Did I mention it's not all about recruiting?

I imagine that has got to feel pretty good to sit at 71 and beat 25 by 2 tds.

[StPaulHusker]

9 minutes ago, Mavric said:

Plus I doubt many of the currently Top 25 teams are leaning very heavily on the Class of 2018 so it's not that telling of a stat.

I agree here.  You have to look at a 4 year average.

 

 

[Undone]

So we can already see that Frost has ridden the UCF success to a first successful 2018 class that ranked roughly 22nd as it stood on national signing day. That was slightly ahead of the average.

 

Let's say we get relatively lucky and sign a class that ranks 20th for 2019. Things are objectively heading in the right direction.

 

There shouldn't be any doubt that Frost is very capable at developing offensive talent; his resume shows this clearly. But I think it's fair to say that Chinander is kind of an unknown variable in the talent development department - I don't know how anybody says, "Oh yeah, he's for sure incredible at developing talent." I don't think we have any idea and that for me is the big 'wait and see' factor to Frost's success. 

 

As long as Urban's coaching Ohio State we're not going to win any conference titles without a stout defense.

[TheSker]

4 hours ago, Undone said:

So we can already see that Frost has ridden the UCF success to a first successful 2018 class that ranked roughly 22nd as it stood on national signing day. That was slightly ahead of the average.

 

Let's say we get relatively lucky and sign a class that ranks 20th for 2019. Things are objectively heading in the right direction.

 

There shouldn't be any doubt that Frost is very capable at developing offensive talent; his resume shows this clearly. But I think it's fair to say that Chinander is kind of an unknown variable in the talent development department - I don't know how anybody says, "Oh yeah, he's for sure incredible at developing talent." I don't think we have any idea and that for me is the big 'wait and see' factor to Frost's success. 

 

As long as Urban's coaching Ohio State we're not going to win any conference titles without a stout defense.

I think Duval will be more critical than Chinander in our long term success when it comes to development.

[BoSolich]

it also doesn't help when the 4 stars you sign don't even end up staying on the team: monte harrison, jordan stevenson, jalin barnett, patrick o'brien, tristan gebbia, avery roberts, keyshaun johnson jr, elijah blades.

 

if you take those guys off our recent classes, we're probably recruiting top 50 classes. not top 25.

[Mavric]

4 hours ago, BoSolich said:

it also doesn't help when the 4 stars you sign don't even end up staying on the team: monte harrison, jordan stevenson, jalin barnett, patrick o'brien, tristan gebbia, avery roberts, keyshaun johnson jr, elijah blades.

 

if you take those guys off our recent classes, we're probably recruiting top 50 classes. not top 25.

 

Except that all those guys are accounted for in my post earlier and we're still #25.

 

So no

[junior4949]

On ‎10‎/‎1‎/‎2018 at 7:12 PM, BoSolich said:

and yet wisconsin have never made the playoff or championship. if the goal is just to be good but not great, then by all means just recruit #32 classes that fit your system.

 

A couple of things.  Whether you want to admit it or not, Wisconsin had ever bit as much claim on a playoff spot last year as Alabama.  Second, everything is a process.  When you're as bad as we are right now, the goal is to be good.  The last time we were as good as Wisconsin has been was probably the first half of the season in 2010.  We're getting closer and closer to being a decade removed from when we were actually Wisconsin "good". 

 

Recruiting typically gets better when a team starts winning.  Some of TO's highest ranked recruiting classes came after he won his first NC.  Once we get "Wisconsin good", I'd expect our recruiting classes to get better as well.

[Undone]

3 minutes ago, junior4949 said:

Whether you want to admit it or not, Wisconsin had ever bit as much claim on a playoff spot last year as Alabama.

 

I don't know that it's all that clear cut. I'm not necessarily disagreeing, but Wisconsin's schedule wasn't nearly as tough as Alabama's. 

 

*Standard Disclaimer -- I'd trade places any day with where Wisconsin's program has been the past 5-8 years. Their program has been consistently good and we're a dumpster fire.

 

Here was Wisconsin's schedule last year:

 

September 1	8:00 p.m.	Utah State*	No. 9	Camp Randall Stadium • Madison, WI	ESPN	W 59–10	75,324
September 9	11:00 a.m.	Florida Atlantic*	No. 9	Camp Randall Stadium • Madison, WI	BTN	W 31–14	77,542
September 16	2:30 p.m.	at BYU*	No. 10	LaVell Edwards Stadium • Provo, UT	ABC	W 40–6	61,143
September 30	11:00 a.m.	Northwestern	No. 10	Camp Randall Stadium • Madison, WI	ABC	W 33–24	80,584
October 7	7:00 p.m.	at Nebraska	No. 9	Memorial Stadium • Lincoln, NE (Rivalry)	BTN	W 38–17	89,860
October 14	2:30 p.m.	Purdue	No. 7	Camp Randall Stadium • Madison, WI	BTN	W 17–9	78,580
October 21	11:00 a.m.	Maryland	No. 5	Camp Randall Stadium • Madison, WI	FOX	W 38–13	78,058
October 28	11:00 a.m.	at Illinois	No. 5	Memorial Stadium • Champaign, IL	ESPN	W 24–10	42,101
November 4	11:00 a.m.	at Indiana	No. 4	Memorial Stadium • Bloomington, IN	ABC	W 45–17	43,027
November 11	2:30 p.m.	No. 25 Iowa	No. 6	Camp Randall Stadium • Madison, WI (Rivalry)	ABC	W 38–14	80,462
November 18	11:00 a.m.	No. 19 Michigan	No. 5	Camp Randall Stadium • Madison, WI	FOX	W 24–10	81,216
November 25	2:30 p.m.	at Minnesota	No. 5	TCF Bank Stadium • Minneapolis, MN (Rivalry)	ABC	W 31–0	47,327

 

 

And here was Alabama's:

 

Date	Time	Opponent#	Rank#	Site	TV	Result	Attendance
September 2	7:00 p.m.	vs. No. 3 Florida State*	No. 1	Mercedes-Benz Stadium • Atlanta, GA (Chick-fil-A Kickoff Game)	ABC	W 24–7	76,330
September 9	2:30 p.m.	Fresno State*	No. 1	Bryant–Denny Stadium • Tuscaloosa, AL	ESPN2	W 41–10	101,127
September 16	6:00 p.m.	Colorado State*	No. 1	Bryant–Denny Stadium • Tuscaloosa, AL	ESPN2	W 41–23	101,821
September 23	2:30 p.m.	at Vanderbilt	No. 1	Vanderbilt Stadium • Nashville, TN	CBS	W 59–0	40,350
September 30	8:00 p.m.	Ole Miss	No. 1	Bryant–Denny Stadium • Tuscaloosa, AL (rivalry)	ESPN	W 66–3	101,821
October 7	6:15 p.m.	at Texas A&M	No. 1	Kyle Field • College Station, TX	ESPN	W 27–19	101,058
October 14	6:15 p.m.	Arkansas	No. 1	Bryant–Denny Stadium • Tuscaloosa, AL	ESPN	W 41–9	101,821
October 21	2:30 p.m.	Tennessee	No. 1	Bryant–Denny Stadium • Tuscaloosa, AL (Third Saturday in October)	CBS	W 45–7	101,821
November 4	7:00 p.m.	No. 18 LSU	No. 1	Bryant–Denny Stadium • Tuscaloosa, AL (rivalry)	CBS	W 24–10	101,821
November 11	6:00 p.m.	at No. 19 Mississippi State	No. 1	Davis Wade Stadium • Starkville, MS (rivalry)	ESPN	W 31–24	61,344
November 18	11:00 a.m.	Mercer*	No. 1	Bryant–Denny Stadium • Tuscaloosa, AL	SECN	W 56–0	101,821
November 25	2:30 p.m.	at No. 6 Auburn	No. 1	Jordan–Hare Stadium • Auburn, AL (Iron Bowl)	CBS	L 14–26	87,451

 

 

Alabama loses a game to a legitimate Top 10 team while Wisconsin goes undefeated, but Wisconsin only played one decent team (Michigan...barely...they didn't even finish the season in the AP Top 25). Iowa shouldn't have been ranked when they played Wisconsin, and didn't finish the season in the AP Top 25.

 

Wisconsin gets a chance to prove that they can actually beat one of the Top 5-10 teams in the country in the B1G title game and can't do it. 

 

Basically, once Urban Meyer and James Franklin came on the scene it's been evident that Wisconsin just can't break through to that elite level.

 

[Hunter94]

On 10/2/2018 at 1:07 PM, Undone said:

So we can already see that Frost has ridden the UCF success to a first successful 2018 class that ranked roughly 22nd as it stood on national signing day. That was slightly ahead of the average.

 

Let's say we get relatively lucky and sign a class that ranks 20th for 2019. Things are objectively heading in the right direction.

 

There shouldn't be any doubt that Frost is very capable at developing offensive talent; his resume shows this clearly. But I think it's fair to say that Chinander is kind of an unknown variable in the talent development department - I don't know how anybody says, "Oh yeah, he's for sure incredible at developing talent." I don't think we have any idea and that for me is the big 'wait and see' factor to Frost's success. 

 

As long as Urban's coaching Ohio State we're not going to win any conference titles without a stout defense.

i tend to agree......not sure if Chin is up to the task, UCF gave up a lot of points.

[StPaulHusker]

9 minutes ago, Hunter94 said:

i tend to agree......not sure if Chin is up to the task, UCF gave up a lot of points.

 

What is considered a lot?

 

2016 UCF gave up 24 points per game going 6-7

2017 first 9 games-19 points per game, last 3-41 points-Average was 24 points

 

 

[junior4949]

2 hours ago, Undone said:

 

I don't know that it's all that clear cut. I'm not necessarily disagreeing, but Wisconsin's schedule wasn't nearly as tough as Alabama's. 

 

*Standard Disclaimer -- I'd trade places any day with where Wisconsin's program has been the past 5-8 years. Their program has been consistently good and we're a dumpster fire.

 

Here was Wisconsin's schedule last year:

 

September 1	8:00 p.m.	Utah State*	No. 9	Camp Randall Stadium • Madison, WI	ESPN	W 59–10	75,324
September 9	11:00 a.m.	Florida Atlantic*	No. 9	Camp Randall Stadium • Madison, WI	BTN	W 31–14	77,542
September 16	2:30 p.m.	at BYU*	No. 10	LaVell Edwards Stadium • Provo, UT	ABC	W 40–6	61,143
September 30	11:00 a.m.	Northwestern	No. 10	Camp Randall Stadium • Madison, WI	ABC	W 33–24	80,584
October 7	7:00 p.m.	at Nebraska	No. 9	Memorial Stadium • Lincoln, NE (Rivalry)	BTN	W 38–17	89,860
October 14	2:30 p.m.	Purdue	No. 7	Camp Randall Stadium • Madison, WI	BTN	W 17–9	78,580
October 21	11:00 a.m.	Maryland	No. 5	Camp Randall Stadium • Madison, WI	FOX	W 38–13	78,058
October 28	11:00 a.m.	at Illinois	No. 5	Memorial Stadium • Champaign, IL	ESPN	W 24–10	42,101
November 4	11:00 a.m.	at Indiana	No. 4	Memorial Stadium • Bloomington, IN	ABC	W 45–17	43,027
November 11	2:30 p.m.	No. 25 Iowa	No. 6	Camp Randall Stadium • Madison, WI (Rivalry)	ABC	W 38–14	80,462
November 18	11:00 a.m.	No. 19 Michigan	No. 5	Camp Randall Stadium • Madison, WI	FOX	W 24–10	81,216
November 25	2:30 p.m.	at Minnesota	No. 5	TCF Bank Stadium • Minneapolis, MN (Rivalry)	ABC	W 31–0	47,327

 

 

And here was Alabama's:

 

Date	Time	Opponent#	Rank#	Site	TV	Result	Attendance
September 2	7:00 p.m.	vs. No. 3 Florida State*	No. 1	Mercedes-Benz Stadium • Atlanta, GA (Chick-fil-A Kickoff Game)	ABC	W 24–7	76,330
September 9	2:30 p.m.	Fresno State*	No. 1	Bryant–Denny Stadium • Tuscaloosa, AL	ESPN2	W 41–10	101,127
September 16	6:00 p.m.	Colorado State*	No. 1	Bryant–Denny Stadium • Tuscaloosa, AL	ESPN2	W 41–23	101,821
September 23	2:30 p.m.	at Vanderbilt	No. 1	Vanderbilt Stadium • Nashville, TN	CBS	W 59–0	40,350
September 30	8:00 p.m.	Ole Miss	No. 1	Bryant–Denny Stadium • Tuscaloosa, AL (rivalry)	ESPN	W 66–3	101,821
October 7	6:15 p.m.	at Texas A&M	No. 1	Kyle Field • College Station, TX	ESPN	W 27–19	101,058
October 14	6:15 p.m.	Arkansas	No. 1	Bryant–Denny Stadium • Tuscaloosa, AL	ESPN	W 41–9	101,821
October 21	2:30 p.m.	Tennessee	No. 1	Bryant–Denny Stadium • Tuscaloosa, AL (Third Saturday in October)	CBS	W 45–7	101,821
November 4	7:00 p.m.	No. 18 LSU	No. 1	Bryant–Denny Stadium • Tuscaloosa, AL (rivalry)	CBS	W 24–10	101,821
November 11	6:00 p.m.	at No. 19 Mississippi State	No. 1	Davis Wade Stadium • Starkville, MS (rivalry)	ESPN	W 31–24	61,344
November 18	11:00 a.m.	Mercer*	No. 1	Bryant–Denny Stadium • Tuscaloosa, AL	SECN	W 56–0	101,821
November 25	2:30 p.m.	at No. 6 Auburn	No. 1	Jordan–Hare Stadium • Auburn, AL (Iron Bowl)	CBS	L 14–26	87,451

 

 

Alabama loses a game to a legitimate Top 10 team while Wisconsin goes undefeated, but Wisconsin only played one decent team (Michigan...barely...they didn't even finish the season in the AP Top 25). Iowa shouldn't have been ranked when they played Wisconsin, and didn't finish the season in the AP Top 25.

 

Wisconsin gets a chance to prove that they can actually beat one of the Top 5-10 teams in the country in the B1G title game and can't do it. 

 

Basically, once Urban Meyer and James Franklin came on the scene it's been evident that Wisconsin just can't break through to that elite level.

 

 

For the record, I believe the committee got it right last year.  However, I would like to address the bolded.  Wisconsin did something Bama didn't do last year.  They actually made it to their conference title game while Bama stayed home.  Prior to the playoff, Bama got a chance to prove they could actually beat one of the top 5-10 teams in the country and they couldn't do it.  Bama lost by 12 against a top 5-10 team while Wisconsin lost by 6 against a top 5-10 team.  If one is really being honest, neither Bama or Wisconsin had a World beater schedule last year in the regular season.  Bama beats a couple of teams that finished the season barely in the top 25.  Wisconsin beats a couple of teams that finished just outside the top 25.