DevoHusker Posted December 30, 2020 Share Posted December 30, 2020 29 minutes ago, suh_fan93 said: Always my answer to the rhetorical question "Ginger, or Mary Ann?" 1 1 Quote Link to comment
teachercd Posted December 30, 2020 Share Posted December 30, 2020 Okay are we shocked she was 82 or are we not shocked she was 82? Quote Link to comment
knapplc Posted January 15, 2021 Share Posted January 15, 2021 COVID-19 reduced U.S. life expectancy The COVID-19 pandemic, which claimed more than 336,000 lives in the United States in 2020, has significantly affected life expectancy, USC and Princeton researchers have found. The researchers project that, due to the pandemic deaths last year, life expectancy at birth for Americans will shorten by 1.13 years to 77.48 years, according to their study published Thursday in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. That is the largest single-year decline in life expectancy in at least 40 years and is the lowest life expectancy estimated since 2003. 1 Quote Link to comment
DevoHusker Posted January 15, 2021 Share Posted January 15, 2021 50 minutes ago, knapplc said: COVID-19 reduced U.S. life expectancy The COVID-19 pandemic, which claimed more than 336,000 lives in the United States in 2020, has significantly affected life expectancy, USC and Princeton researchers have found. The researchers project that, due to the pandemic deaths last year, life expectancy at birth for Americans will shorten by 1.13 years to 77.48 years, according to their study published Thursday in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. That is the largest single-year decline in life expectancy in at least 40 years and is the lowest life expectancy estimated since 2003. I assume this is tied to the fact that COVID deaths of folks over age 65 account for 267k of the 330k deaths in the US? Therefore, the life expectancy curve has been lowered since so many in that age group died? 1 Quote Link to comment
RedDenver Posted January 15, 2021 Share Posted January 15, 2021 2 hours ago, DevoHusker said: I assume this is tied to the fact that COVID deaths of folks over age 65 account for 267k of the 330k deaths in the US? Therefore, the life expectancy curve has been lowered since so many in that age group died? I don't understand what you're trying to say here. If covid had killed more younger people, life expectancy would have gone down even more. Quote Link to comment
DevoHusker Posted January 15, 2021 Share Posted January 15, 2021 30 minutes ago, RedDenver said: I don't understand what you're trying to say here. If covid had killed more younger people, life expectancy would have gone down even more. When an inordinate number of folks over 65 die, it only computes that the top number would be reduced. Help me understand your point that if it were younger folks, it would drop more? Less to reach the top number? Quote Link to comment
RedDenver Posted January 15, 2021 Share Posted January 15, 2021 16 minutes ago, DevoHusker said: When an inordinate number of folks over 65 die, it only computes that the top number would be reduced. Help me understand your point that if it were younger folks, it would drop more? Less to reach the top number? It's just the math of how life expectancy is calculated. Expected value is simply an average for empirical data, so think of how the average gets affected: If the age of death drops by 5-10 years (older people dying early from covid), then the average drops by a little. Think of how the average is affected if someone who would have lived to 80 dies at 75. If the age of death drops by 50-60 years (younger people dying early from covid), then the average drops by a lot more. Think of how the average is affected if someone who would have lived to 80 dies at 35. Quote Link to comment
knapplc Posted January 16, 2021 Share Posted January 16, 2021 39 minutes ago, DevoHusker said: When an inordinate number of folks over 65 die, it only computes that the top number would be reduced. Help me understand your point that if it were younger folks, it would drop more? Less to reach the top number? It's a simple average. More people dying at a young age puts more in the death column at that age. Average (and life expectancy) go down. More people dying at an older age puts more in the column at that age. Average goes up. Quote Link to comment
DevoHusker Posted January 16, 2021 Share Posted January 16, 2021 3 hours ago, RedDenver said: It's just the math of how life expectancy is calculated. Expected value is simply an average for empirical data, so think of how the average gets affected: If the age of death drops by 5-10 years (older people dying early from covid), then the average drops by a little. Think of how the average is affected if someone who would have lived to 80 dies at 75. If the age of death drops by 50-60 years (younger people dying early from covid), then the average drops by a lot more. Think of how the average is affected if someone who would have lived to 80 dies at 35. I wasn't seeing it that way. I appreciate your view, thanks. 2 hours ago, knapplc said: It's a simple average. More people dying at a young age puts more in the death column at that age. Average (and life expectancy) go down. More people dying at an older age puts more in the column at that age. Average goes up. Thanks as well. 2 Quote Link to comment
knapplc Posted January 16, 2021 Share Posted January 16, 2021 16 minutes ago, DevoHusker said: Thanks as well. I honestly had to use a spreadsheet because I initially thought the same as you. 1 Quote Link to comment
suh_fan93 Posted January 16, 2021 Author Share Posted January 16, 2021 Sorry meant for p & r thread. Quote Link to comment
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