2023 Fall Camp Notes - Quarterbacks

[brophog]

A couple of things I'd say in that.

 

First, Steele bases his models strongly on returning production, and for good reason. It tends to correlate year on year with wins at this level. So given the turnover Nebraska has had over the years, not to mention the poor record, those rankings should not come as any surprise nor do they really tell us anything we don't already know.

 

I want to address this passage from SSO, specifically.

 

Quote

The big knock on Sims is his arm, but more importantly his accuracy. People that aren’t sold on him will quote that he had 23 interceptions in 2.5 seasons while playing for Georgia Tech. But that’s a stat that our OC Satterfield quickly dismisses, stating that over half of those were when he was a true freshman thrown into the fire. And he believes that with the offense Nebraska is implementing for the QB run on top of additional development, he is poised for a breakout season throwing the ball.

Full disclosure, I can’t get a freaking read on this staff with what they believe is true, and what they are using to prop up the confidence of their players. So as of now, I don’t discredit what they say, but it is going to be taken with a grain of salt. I listen to my eyes nowadays, not my ears when it comes to Husker football predictions.

And with that said, what Sims does bring to the table is his legs.

 

Going in reverse order, I'll address Sims running ability. He is very much a pass first QB. This is not Lamar Jackson or Michael Vick here. His running ability is not where his bread is buttered. He's a better athlete than Charlie Brewer and PJ Walker, Rhule's first two QBs but he's similar in how you'd want to use him. Certainly call some designed QB runs, but do it smartly.

 

The big thing I want to address is to say completion percentage is not accuracy. Accuracy is the ability to place the ball where you want. It's a component of completion percentage, but things like play calling and decision making are as important as mechanics. With Sims, it's really important to highlight this because he's shown he's capable of games with a good completion percentage, even if his overall average isn't what you'd want.

 

Case in point, 2022: 7 games, overall 58.5%

 

23/36 63.9% vs Clemson

21/32 65.6% vs UCF

23/34 67.6% vs Duke

 

In 3 of his 7 games, these are the kinds of numbers we'd like to see. Where's the problem?

 

11/26 42.3% vs Pitt

 

This is typical of Jeff Sims the past 2 years. A few games he puts up a good percentage and a few are big stinkers.

 

Looking at his games at Georgia Tech, by and large his placement is pretty good. Satterfield has mentioned a few things he'd like to address that can help that, and that's something to watch for. What I see that causes problems is when Sims' process gets sped up. He can be woefully inaccurate when that happens. In the media days he talked about bulking up and the reporters all saw that from a running perspective, but it's my hope that it gives him the confidence to stand in the pocket and deliver the pass he wants to deliver. You don't want to have your QBs take anymore shots than necessary, but Tom Brady wouldn't have played 200 years if the rules weren't made to protect QBs in the pocket, either.

 

From a play calling perspective, what I've said about insulating the offensive line in the past goes here, too. Keep those chains moving. In that game against Pitt, as an example, GT was constantly in 2nd and 10, 3rd and Long. Pitt was throwing every garbage blitz they had at them and GT's receivers weren't getting open. Good recipe for a 42% completion day.

[MyBloodIsRed16]

9 minutes ago, brophog said:

A couple of things I'd say in that.

 

First, Steele bases his models strongly on returning production, and for good reason. It tends to correlate year on year with wins at this level. So given the turnover Nebraska has had over the years, not to mention the poor record, those rankings should not come as any surprise nor do they really tell us anything we don't already know.

 

I want to address this passage from SSO, specifically.

 

 

Going in reverse order, I'll address Sims running ability. He is very much a pass first QB. This is not Lamar Jackson or Michael Vick here. His running ability is not where his bread is buttered. He's a better athlete than Charlie Brewer and PJ Walker, Rhule's first two QBs but he's similar in how you'd want to use him. Certainly call some designed QB runs, but do it smartly.

 

The big thing I want to address is to say completion percentage is not accuracy. Accuracy is the ability to place the ball where you want. It's a component of completion percentage, but things like play calling and decision making are as important as mechanics. With Sims, it's really important to highlight this because he's shown he's capable of games with a good completion percentage, even if his overall average isn't what you'd want.

 

Case in point, 2022: 7 games, overall 58.5%

 

23/36 63.9% vs Clemson

21/32 65.6% vs UCF

23/34 67.6% vs Duke

 

In 3 of his 7 games, these are the kinds of numbers we'd like to see. Where's the problem?

 

11/26 42.3% vs Pitt

 

This is typical of Jeff Sims the past 2 years. A few games he puts up a good percentage and a few are big stinkers.

 

Looking at his games at Georgia Tech, by and large his placement is pretty good. Satterfield has mentioned a few things he'd like to address that can help that, and that's something to watch for. What I see that causes problems is when Sims' process gets sped up. He can be woefully inaccurate when that happens. In the media days he talked about bulking up and the reporters all saw that from a running perspective, but it's my hope that it gives him the confidence to stand in the pocket and deliver the pass he wants to deliver. You don't want to have your QBs take anymore shots than necessary, but Tom Brady wouldn't have played 200 years if the rules weren't made to protect QBs in the pocket, either.

 

From a play calling perspective, what I've said about insulating the offensive line in the past goes here, too. Keep those chains moving. In that game against Pitt, as an example, GT was constantly in 2nd and 10, 3rd and Long. Pitt was throwing every garbage blitz they had at them and GT's receivers weren't getting open. Good recipe for a 42% completion day.

I watched the Pitt game.  They lived in the back field.  GT wasn't running the ball well either.  I think he was sacked 4 times and that wasn't from holding the ball too long 

[runningblind]

6 hours ago, brophog said:

A couple of things I'd say in that.

 

First, Steele bases his models strongly on returning production, and for good reason. It tends to correlate year on year with wins at this level. So given the turnover Nebraska has had over the years, not to mention the poor record, those rankings should not come as any surprise nor do they really tell us anything we don't already know.

 

I want to address this passage from SSO, specifically.

 

 

Going in reverse order, I'll address Sims running ability. He is very much a pass first QB. This is not Lamar Jackson or Michael Vick here. His running ability is not where his bread is buttered. He's a better athlete than Charlie Brewer and PJ Walker, Rhule's first two QBs but he's similar in how you'd want to use him. Certainly call some designed QB runs, but do it smartly.

 

The big thing I want to address is to say completion percentage is not accuracy. Accuracy is the ability to place the ball where you want. It's a component of completion percentage, but things like play calling and decision making are as important as mechanics. With Sims, it's really important to highlight this because he's shown he's capable of games with a good completion percentage, even if his overall average isn't what you'd want.

 

Case in point, 2022: 7 games, overall 58.5%

 

23/36 63.9% vs Clemson

21/32 65.6% vs UCF

23/34 67.6% vs Duke

 

In 3 of his 7 games, these are the kinds of numbers we'd like to see. Where's the problem?

 

11/26 42.3% vs Pitt

 

This is typical of Jeff Sims the past 2 years. A few games he puts up a good percentage and a few are big stinkers.

 

Looking at his games at Georgia Tech, by and large his placement is pretty good. Satterfield has mentioned a few things he'd like to address that can help that, and that's something to watch for. What I see that causes problems is when Sims' process gets sped up. He can be woefully inaccurate when that happens. In the media days he talked about bulking up and the reporters all saw that from a running perspective, but it's my hope that it gives him the confidence to stand in the pocket and deliver the pass he wants to deliver. You don't want to have your QBs take anymore shots than necessary, but Tom Brady wouldn't have played 200 years if the rules weren't made to protect QBs in the pocket, either.

 

From a play calling perspective, what I've said about insulating the offensive line in the past goes here, too. Keep those chains moving. In that game against Pitt, as an example, GT was constantly in 2nd and 10, 3rd and Long. Pitt was throwing every garbage blitz they had at them and GT's receivers weren't getting open. Good recipe for a 42% completion day.

I gave you a +1 just for the number of letters typed.

[admo]

Someone mentioned a rainy or wet day as a reason for an unforgiving practice throwing the ball..... and that makes sense.

 

Buckle up though.  Big Ten Season. 

 

Six to Eight football games out of 12 will have windy days (passing with the wind at your back, then throwing into the wind) cold days (under 50 degrees at kickoff) really cold days with heavy wind (under 40 degrees) and possibly a wintry-mix... or a game below freezing.

 

Seems like there are always weather elements during the year that we tend to forget about in June/July/August....

 

So I see why a big physical QB is here (Sims) and (Haarberg) that can run a little bit and take some pounding when you can't throw a football consistently beyond 5-8 yards.

 

These QBs in this offense will absorb hits (bad pass protection at times and blitzes) and will need to move the ball running and scrambling and taking hits.

 

Until the weather goes bad, it should be nice throws all day long, right?

[Mavric]

 

[Lorewarn]

9 times out of 10 when you're trying hard to explain away bad stats, the biggest truth is that you're actively trying to reach the conclusion you want to.

[ColoradoHusk]

On 8/3/2023 at 5:52 PM, admo said:

Someone mentioned a rainy or wet day as a reason for an unforgiving practice throwing the ball..... and that makes sense.

 

Buckle up though.  Big Ten Season. 

 

Six to Eight football games out of 12 will have windy days (passing with the wind at your back, then throwing into the wind) cold days (under 50 degrees at kickoff) really cold days with heavy wind (under 40 degrees) and possibly a wintry-mix... or a game below freezing.

 

Seems like there are always weather elements during the year that we tend to forget about in June/July/August....

 

So I see why a big physical QB is here (Sims) and (Haarberg) that can run a little bit and take some pounding when you can't throw a football consistently beyond 5-8 yards.

 

These QBs in this offense will absorb hits (bad pass protection at times and blitzes) and will need to move the ball running and scrambling and taking hits.

 

Until the weather goes bad, it should be nice throws all day long, right?

I think you are overestimating the amount of games which the weather severely impacts the way the game is played on the field. Yes, there are bad weather games, and teams have to be able to adapt and play through that weather.  But, you are saying weather has a significant impact on the style of the game in over half of the games, and that’s just not true. 

[brophog]

On 8/3/2023 at 6:52 PM, admo said:

Six to Eight football games out of 12 will have windy days (passing with the wind at your back, then throwing into the wind) cold days (under 50 degrees at kickoff) really cold days with heavy wind (under 40 degrees) and possibly a wintry-mix... or a game below freezing.

 

Seems like there are always weather elements during the year that we tend to forget about in June/July/August....

 

I feel like some context is needed when discussing run vs pass in inclement weather. After all, you'll see half of the city of Green Bay shovel snow for Rodgers and Favre and the Siberian wilderness known as Buffalo, NY has had guys like Josh Allen and Jim Kelly.

 

The thing that is easily forgotten is passing is already inherently more efficient than running. That's why passing numbers across all levels are up over the decades and scoring has followed suit. The question isn't that passing is less efficient in inclement weather than it normally is, it's a question of how much and is that still relatively better than running is.

 

One way we can look at this question is as follows, and these are pretty typical numbers. If you average 7.0 yards per pass attempt in good weather and that gets reduced to 6.0-6.5 yards per pass attempt in inclement weather are you still better off passing if you average 4.5 yards per rush attempt.

 

One of the biggest mistakes you can make is giving the weather too much credit and becoming so risk averse that it begins to impact your running game, too. You can become so risk averse that you find yourself running into heavy boxes or find the other team 7 yards from the line of scrimmage.

[Mavric]

 

[Red Five]

19 minutes ago, Mavric said:

 

 

60.1% was his Soph year.  He would have needed 1 more completion/game to hit 65%.

 

Last year he was at 58.5%.  He would have needed 1.5 more completions/game to hit 65%.

 

Seems doable to me.

[MyBloodIsRed16]

I think we are gonna live off short passes to Kemp and Fidone.  should be able to hit 65% 

[Mavric]

18 minutes ago, MyBloodIsRed16 said:

I think we are gonna live off short passes to Kemp and Fidone.  should be able to hit 65% 

 

I think that's entirely possible.  Higher percentage but not great on yards per attempt.

[DefenderAO]

On 7/31/2023 at 10:46 AM, Mavric said:

Looks like option to me:

 

Scott Frost derivative shout out play.
 

Swing pass the the QB for -2 yards. 

[admo]

On 8/6/2023 at 2:02 AM, Lorewarn said:

9 times out of 10 when you're trying hard to explain away bad stats, the biggest truth is that you're actively trying to reach the conclusion you want to.

Oh please,...

 

Sims:

 

His completion % year by year:
54.9%... 60.1%.... 58.5%...... Nothing to try hard about with those numbers.

Georgia Tech threw a ton of quick snap bubble screen passes, which ultimately increased his completion %.  The same way it helped Taylor Martinez with his overall completion % - and TMart threw that sideline quick pass twice a quarter all game.

Don't come at me with snark for putting up some alarming numbers as if the results are not what they are.

 

Don't tell me Nebraska doesn't have windy Saturdays at home and cold Saturdays later in the year. @ColoradoHusk On one side of the mouth you say is does happen, and the other side says it's not impactful.  Which is it?  I have seen enough games to know it will be an issue.

Don't take these caution alerts about our new QB and misunderstand me.  I have nothing do to with his previous results.

I am hoping Sims can have a great season, because I like him and love Nebraska football.  
We are going to throw short passes often, like he did at GTech.  But please don't get on me as if a few down field interceptions happen, or defender jumps a timing route, or a fumble or sack occurs.  Or if he scrambles for his life and tries to make something happen because the OLine hasn't improved much.  

 

He's the guy now and it's a long season.  His previous 3 years of results cannot be attributed to me for having some concern and pause. There is nothing from what he has done previously in 3 years that has anything to do with trying hard to reach a bad conclusion. 

 

Like I said, I hope this is the year he finally puts it together.  We need him and need him to be successful.  Time will tell, because it is a long season.  What I say should make sense, and if not, twist and turn it however you want and add the snark.  

[ColoradoHusk]

@admo What do you consider a "windy" game day?  How cold does the temp need to be to where it impacts the passing game?  You are throwing out thoughts of wind and cold impacting the game, without showing how much the wind or cold has impacted the game or how often NU plays in windy conditions or very cold (which is still subjective) conditions.

 

Huskers.com has box scores for historical games, which includes the temp, wind, and sun conditions at kickoff.  Try doing some research to provide data which backs up your claims.  https://huskers.com/sports/football/schedule/season/2022