Does NU have a chance in the B1G West?

[Mavric]

1 hour ago, MyBloodIsRed16 said:

say we win out and make it to the conference championship game and by some miracle they beat whoever represents the East.  Does a 3 loss Nebraska team get into the playoff?  

 

Not even close.

[Mavric]

But it would be pretty interesting to look at the standings.  The team that lost the CCG (12-1 Ohio State or Michigan) or a team that didn't even make the CCG (11-1 Ohio State or Michigan) would still have a pretty good chance to get in.  And be ranked 10 spots ahead of the team that won the conference.

[suh_fan93]

What a strange season.

[knapplc]

Connelly expands on Nebraska's chances:

 

 

 

[Red Five]

On 10/25/2023 at 8:26 AM, Red Five said:

After Week 8.  SP+ wasn't a fan of the performance vs NW.

 

Nebraska #61 in SP+ / #67 in FPI

 

Minnesota #59 / #59
Colorado #77 / #74
N. Illinois #102 / #95
Louisiana Tech #108 / #114
Michigan #1 / #2
Illinois #62 / #66
North­western #93 / #88
Purdue #76 / #63
Michigan St #69  / #75

Maryland #32 / #29
Wisconsin #28 / #28
Iowa #37 / #38

 

After week 9.  Moved up in both.

 

Nebraska #51 in SP+ / #61 in FPI

 

Minnesota #49 / #53
Colorado #77 / #74
N. Illinois #98 / #96
Louisiana Tech #105 / #110
Michigan #1 / #2
Illinois #62 / #68
North­western #92 / #82
Purdue #82 / #73
Michigan St #74  / #77

Maryland #31 / #32
Wisconsin #27 / #29
Iowa #36 / #39

[Red Five]

On 10/25/2023 at 8:29 AM, Red Five said:

FPI Chance to win the West after week 8:

Iowa 44.4%

Wisconsin 43.5%

Minnesota 6.8%

Nebraska 4.7%

Northwestern 0.3%

Illinois 0.2%

Purdue 0.2%

 

FPI Chance to win the West after week 9:

Iowa 41.2%

Wisconsin 37.2%

Minnesota 11.9%

Nebraska 8.6%

Northwestern 1.1%

Illinois 0.1%

Purdue 0.0%

[Red Five]

On 10/25/2023 at 8:37 AM, Red Five said:

B1G West.  Home of the worst offenses in the P5

 

#81 Illinois 5.49 ypp

#83 Wisconsin 5.44 ypp

#89 Nebraska 5.38 ypp

#101 Purdue 5.12 ypp

#125 Minnesota 4.69 ypp

#127 Northwestern 4.54 ypp

#131 Iowa 4.12 ypp (there are 133 D1 teams, the bottom 2 are tied at 4.11 ypp)

 

And I think we should crown 4/7 of the B1G East as honorary West members this year:

#96 Penn St

#99 Rutgers

#116 Mich St

#119 Indiana

 

 

B1G West.  Home of the worst offenses in the P5

 

#80 Illinois 5.49 ypp

#90 Nebraska 5.30 ypp

#92 Wisconsin 5.28 ypp

#117 Purdue 4.90 ypp

#121 Minnesota 4.81 ypp

#125 Northwestern 4.69 ypp

#132 Iowa 4.12 ypp (there are 133 D1 teams, the last is at 4.11 ypp)

 

And I think we should crown 4/7 of the B1G East as honorary West members this year:

#96 Penn St

#97 Rutgers

#111 Indiana

#112 Mich St

[Red Five]

[Mavric]

3 minutes ago, Red Five said:

 

B1G West.  Home of the worst offenses in the P5

 

#80 Illinois 5.49 ypp

#90 Nebraska 5.30 ypp

#92 Wisconsin 5.28 ypp

#117 Purdue 4.90 ypp

#121 Minnesota 4.81 ypp

#125 Northwestern 4.69 ypp

#132 Iowa 4.12 ypp (there are 133 D1 teams, the last is at 4.11 ypp)

 

And I think we should crown 4/7 of the B1G East as honorary West members this year:

#96 Penn St

#97 Rutgers

#111 Indiana

#112 Mich St

 

Wow.  I hadn't noticed that Penn State was that bad on offense this year.

[BigRedBuster]

18 minutes ago, Red Five said:

 

FPI Chance to win the West after week 9:

Iowa 41.2%

Wisconsin 37.2%

Minnesota 11.9%

Nebraska 8.6%

Northwestern 1.1%

Illinois 0.1%

Purdue 0.0%

I'd be really interested in knowing how they figure this.  Not disagreeing with it.  Just, interested in it.

 

Minnesota plays OSU and Wisconsin. I'm guessing the difference is that they beat us head to head and our records are the same right now.  We obviously still play Iowa and Wisconsin.

 

I still feel that if we keep winning against all these teams that are very beatable, we are sitting pretty good.

 

 

[commando]

just win the next 1....that is all that matters right now.  get that bowl game and best season in years in place.   after that we will see if we get the gravy   

[Husker in WI]

4 minutes ago, BigRedBuster said:

I'd be really interested in knowing how they figure this.  Not disagreeing with it.  Just, interested in it.

 

Minnesota plays OSU and Wisconsin. I'm guessing the difference is that they beat us head to head and our records are the same right now.  We obviously still play Iowa and Wisconsin.

 

I still feel that if we keep winning against all these teams that are very beatable, we are sitting pretty good.

 

Minnesota also has the tie-breaker against the "best" of the teams currently tied, Iowa. Kinda surprised Wisconsin's odds are that high, their remaining schedule is comparable to Iowa's and they lost the head to head. 

[Mavric]

7 minutes ago, BigRedBuster said:

I'd be really interested in knowing how they figure this.  Not disagreeing with it.  Just, interested in it.

 

Minnesota plays OSU and Wisconsin. I'm guessing the difference is that they beat us head to head and our records are the same right now.  We obviously still play Iowa and Wisconsin.

 

I still feel that if we keep winning against all these teams that are very beatable, we are sitting pretty good.

 

I presume they are taking each game and assigning a likelihood that each team wins that game based on their relative rating.  Smash all that together and you you get the chances each team finishes with the best record.

 

Minnesota is a little odd.  But I wonder if they get the tie-breaker over us on head-to-head.

[Red Five]

7 minutes ago, Mavric said:

Minnesota is a little odd.  But I wonder if they get the tie-breaker over us on head-to-head.

 

I assume Gophs having the tie breaker over both us and Iowa factors in.

[funhusker]

1 hour ago, Red Five said:

 

I assume Gophs having the tie breaker over both us and Iowa factors in.

Unless something has changed with the tie-breaker rules, this would be correct.

 

https://bigten.org/news/2011/8/10/Big_Ten_Conference_Football_Divisional_Tiebreaker.aspx