McKewon: Are We Overestimating Our Ability to Run the Ball

[knapplc]

 

Saw a response to Sam on Twitter, was in the car and didn't have a chance to save it. Anyway, they pointed out that if you counted sacks as pass attempts (which they do in NFL but for some reason college has always counted them as runs), we were actually a few yards better per carry over the season and about 1 for the 8 games he specifically targeted.

This one?

 

Retweeted by Samuel McKewon

Brandon Vogel @brandonlvogel · 5h

 

@swmckewonowh Count sacks as pass plays, which they are, & NU's YPC was 3.7% better than average for all of 2013.

 

 

Brandon is a stats master, so I presume he's saying it's better than average for all of D1 if we take sacks away from ALL D1 teams. But does anyone have any confirmation of that?

[kchusker_chris]

 

Saw a response to Sam on Twitter, was in the car and didn't have a chance to save it. Anyway, they pointed out that if you counted sacks as pass attempts (which they do in NFL but for some reason college has always counted them as runs), we were actually a few yards better per carry over the season and about 1 for the 8 games he specifically targeted.

 

This one?

 

Retweeted by Samuel McKewon

Brandon Vogel @brandonlvogel · 5h

@swmckewonowh Count sacks as pass plays, which they are, & NU's YPC was 3.7% better than average for all of 2013.

 

 

then wouldn't you want to go back and count all the rest of the teams sacks as pass plays - so ultimately we end up back in the same position? We were top 30ish in sacks allowed if I remember right, so it might actually get worse.

[sd'sker]

Even with a hodgepodge offensive line, Abdullah still ran for over 1600 yards last year. I think our running game is just fine.

i think you're just fine.

[ZRod]

 

Even with a hodgepodge offensive line, Abdullah still ran for over 1600 yards last year. I think our running game is just fine.

i think you're just fine.

 

Get a room.

[GSG]

 

 

Even with a hodgepodge offensive line, Abdullah still ran for over 1600 yards last year. I think our running game is just fine.

i think you're just fine.

 

Get a room.

 

 

[ADS]

 

 

Even with a hodgepodge offensive line, Abdullah still ran for over 1600 yards last year. I think our running game is just fine.

i think you're just fine.

K

[Guy Chamberlin]

I thought the offensive line was playing better at the end of the year. As good or better than the uninjured version that started the year.

 

McKewon's main thesis -- that we ran better against poor rushing defenses than good rushing defenses -- isn't particularly brilliant, but it gets overlooked by fans who wonder why we don't just run at will, since Ameer clearly gets 5+ yards every carry. I think everyone holds up Michigan State as an example of what Nebraska could do if it didn't keep handing the ball to the other team.

 

There are some online pundits willing to risk their reputation to generate outraged clicks. McKewon isn't one of them.

[True2tRA]

I agree McKewon is not that guy. Still, he isn't immune from being wrong. Nebraska will run, and Nebraska will throw, just like every other damn team in the country. We will probably do very well in both areas. Currently we have a sophomore QB with 8 or 9 games worth of experience. We have a senior running back who is one of the most highly regarded players in the country. You give Abdullah the ball as much as you can unless someone makes you stop. It's a simple point and it doesn't need to be clouded with this nonsense article. He acts as if Beck is seeing these numbers and saying "uh-oh, I guess we will have to pass now". Nebraska will pass. Beck has and always will want to throw the ball. Haven't we already had this 'balance on offense' conversation? I haven't seen anyone say ' just keep handing it off, even if it gets us nowhere'. People are saying there is no need to go away from what works unless someone makes you go away from it. Our run game works. Clearly there will be teams that make it more difficult. In that case, we will probably throw more. It really rocket science? Geezus.

 

Oh, and overestimating this guy?

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mC8wpJbIaXk

 

 

 

No. I don't think so.

[jsneb83]

We ran the ball better against poor rush defense than we did against good rush defenses? Wow, that's some deep stuff there Sam. Mind blown.

[True2tRA]

We ran the ball better against poor rush defense than we did against good rush defenses? Wow, that's some deep stuff there Sam. Mind blown.

I know right.

 

That's the simple form of what I was getting at. I wish I could express myself in much shorter paragraphs.

[tschu]

 

We ran the ball better against poor rush defense than we did against good rush defenses? Wow, that's some deep stuff there Sam. Mind blown.

I know right.

 

That's the simple form of what I was getting at. I wish I could express myself in much shorter paragraphs.

 

 

No, he's saying that we're average at running the ball against good rush defenses compared to how all teams across the country are at running the ball against good rush defenses

[tschu]

Basically Sam is correct in his analysis of last year's performance, but I don't know that historically this is much of a thing that we need to be indicted on as fans. A 3-year stretch of 2nd, 31st, and 7th nationally is pretty good, followed by an admittedly down year although injuries probably played a part.

 

But I get what he is saying in that we shouldn't jump to the conclusion that Armstrong + Abdullah = an overall outstanding rush game. That's a pair that was 63rd nationally in ypc against winning teams last year. No doubt that our running game will be above average, likely good, but will it be elite? Let's not jump to that conclusion.

[jsneb83]

Basically Sam is correct in his analysis of last year's performance, but I don't know that historically this is much of a thing that we need to be indicted on as fans. A 3-year stretch of 2nd, 31st, and 7th nationally is pretty good, followed by an admittedly down year although injuries probably played a part.

 

But I get what he is saying in that we shouldn't jump to the conclusion that Armstrong + Abdullah = an overall outstanding rush game. That's a pair that was 63rd nationally in ypc against winning teams last year. No doubt that our running game will be above average, likely good, but will it be elite? Let's not jump to that conclusion.

How much of that was because we had a freshman starting at quarterback that didn't really scare teams (especially the good defenses) passing so they just keyed in on the run? If our passing game is more efficient, teams will have to respect it more, making our run game even more efficient.

[lo country]

Basically Sam is correct in his analysis of last year's performance, but I don't know that historically this is much of a thing that we need to be indicted on as fans. A 3-year stretch of 2nd, 31st, and 7th nationally is pretty good, followed by an admittedly down year although injuries probably played a part.

 

But I get what he is saying in that we shouldn't jump to the conclusion that Armstrong + Abdullah = an overall outstanding rush game. That's a pair that was 63rd nationally in ypc against winning teams last year. No doubt that our running game will be above average, likely good, but will it be elite? Let's not jump to that conclusion.

Factor in a hobbled TA, a non-running RKIII, a patch work OL and no Martinez and I think we did really well. I hope with another year removed from knee injury (TA) a healthy OL and a game plan geared to TA we get back to being a dominant (elite or close) running team that dominates the LOS and can impose our will on the opposing team.

[QMany]

We ran for 182 yards at 5.7 per against one of the best rushing defenses in the country despite multiple turnovers. I'm not worried.