The General Election

[Red Five]

 

They have Hillary leading in Nebraska 2nd district

 

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/nebraska-2/​

[Red Five]

It looks like Trump and Clinton are back to being deadlocked.

 

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/06/30/us/politics/hillary-clinton-and-donald-trump-are-deadlocked-poll-shows.html?_r=0

 

http://www.qu.edu/news-and-events/quinnipiac-university-poll/national/release-detail?ReleaseID=2363

 

 

Donald sure likes it!

 

[HuskerNation1]

 

It looks like Trump and Clinton are back to being deadlocked.

 

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/06/30/us/politics/hillary-clinton-and-donald-trump-are-deadlocked-poll-shows.html?_r=0

 

http://www.qu.edu/news-and-events/quinnipiac-university-poll/national/release-detail?ReleaseID=2363

 

As I stated before, I think this thing is going to go back and forth. Most voters don't really focus on the candidates and their positions on issues until labor day or after, so I think at that point in time some of these national and state numbers will be more meaningful. What is most intriguing about this poll is that Trump is performing quite a bit better among Hispanics than Romney or McCain did.

If you look at individual polls, you are probably correct.

However, I prefer to look at websites that combine polls together.

 

It's similar to me liking 247 composite ratings of recruits better than any individual rating site.

 

 

Oh I agree I typically look at the RCP aggregate, but I also look at polling trends. If we see another poll come out in the next few days that shows the race at 2-5 points instead of 9-11 (like some were showing last week), I see that as a trend change. One thing that RCP does not do, however, is remove outliers where the numbers are so far off base they skew the entire average heavily.

[TGHusker]

 

 

Gary Johnson Libertarian town hall. I didn't have a chance to watch this when it originally aired so I listened to it now.

 

I can't say I agree with everything they say. But....MY GOD.....actually someone who acts like an adult and has a discussion on issues instead of just spewing crap.

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?annotation_id=annotation_3833976661&feature=iv&src_vid=NHad94l4kBc&v=08X-wec8OcQ

Hey, I like the idea of 2 governors. We need decision makers. They guys are also business men (Trump isn't the only one!) plus they were good governors who made hard decisions and have good experience - .

 

My thoughts also.

 

They are more liberal on some topics than I would be but in some way - a fresher perspective - no Clinton baggage and no Trump foot in mouth disease.

[TGHusker]

 

 

What Paul Manafort means is that he is very quick on his feet and is able to analyze things quickly and even very well.

 

 

I guess I'm not at the level of being able to keep up with Trump's ability to assess and communicate a knowledgeable position on things. Can you help explain these quotes to me?

 

 

 

 

Look, having nuclear—my uncle was a great professor and scientist and engineer, Dr. John Trump at MIT; good genes, very good genes, OK, very smart, the Wharton School of Finance, very good, very smart—you know, if you’re a conservative Republican, if I were a liberal, if, like, OK, if I ran as a liberal Democrat, they would say I'm one of the smartest people anywhere in the world—it’s true!—but when you're a conservative Republican they try—oh, do they do a number—that’s why I always start off: Went to Wharton, was a good student, went there, went there, did this, built a fortune—you know I have to give my like credentials all the time, because we’re a little disadvantaged—but you look at the nuclear deal, the thing that really bothers me—it would have been so easy, and it’s not as important as these lives are (nuclear is powerful; my uncle explained that to me many, many years ago, the power and that was 35 years ago; he would explain the power of what's going to happen and he was right—who would have thought?), but when you look at what's going on with the four prisoners—now it used to be three, now it’s four—but when it was three and even now, I would have said it's all in the messenger; fellas, and it is fellas because, you know, they don't, they haven’t figured that the women are smarter right now than the men, so, you know, it’s gonna take them about another 150 years—but the Persians are great negotiators, the Iranians are great negotiators, so, and they, they just killed, they just killed us.

 

 

 

Well, I think Lincoln succeeded for numerous reasons. He was a man who was of great intelligence, which most presidents would be. But he was a man of great intelligence, but he was also a man that did something that was a very vital thing to do at that time. Ten years before or 20 years before, what he was doing would never have even been thought possible. So he did something that was a very important thing to do, and especially at that time.

 

 

As much as I dislike Hillary and would like to get behind supporting any other viable candidate, I just can't support Trump. This is supposedly somebody who is quick on their feet, smart, and able to analyze well? All he does is babble and every once in awhile hit on a hot button that some of his supporters want to hear. He is a complete idiot. I'm surprised his brain remembers to breathe. And, unfortunately, his competitor is a lying career politician.

 

Now tell me again who some other 3rd party candidates might be. Don't care if it is a wasted vote. Neither of these two are worth trying to justify or worth my vote. I would be ashamed if I was speaking in favor of either one of them. This least bad choice thing is utter bullsh#t. How about everyone starts only supporting good candidates? That is the only way things will start to improve. Attempting to justify either of these pathetic choices will only ensure that we get more and worse choices in the future. If this was five card draw, I'd throw them all in and take my chances.

 

Those quotes - is he ADHD? he is jumping all over the place on that Nuclear quote.

[knapplc]

I'm not passing judgment on this yet. It'd be too easy for someone to have faked emails purportedly to be from Trump's campaign. But if this is true, it's pretty stupid.

Foreign officials bombarded with Trump emails appealing for funds

Foreign officials are complaining that they're being "bombarded" by fundraising appeals from U.S. presidential candidate Donald Trump. And now, two watchdog groups are filing complaints against the Republican's campaign saying the practice breaks the law.

Sir Roger Gale, a member of the British Parliament, complained in the House of Commons Tuesday that his fellow lawmakers are getting flooded with appeals from "somebody called Donald Trump." He says he does not think his colleagues "should be subjected to intemperate spam."

The complaint by watchdog groups Campaign Legal Center and Democracy 21 say the emails violated a federal law designed to prohibit foreign money in U.S. campaigns.

The complaint cites news reports that politicians in Iceland, Australia and Scotland also have received solicitations on their official email accounts. Campaign Legal Center spokesman Paul S. Ryan said, "Donald Trump should have known better."

 

 

 

Here's a tweet from an Australian official:

 

 

[AR Husker Fan]

Yeah, my first guess would be that it's faked. But I can also see how it could just as easily be a campaign member sending a mass email from a non-sanitized contact list. It's happens. Now, if someone can prove it WAS from the campaign and it INTENDED to solicit foreign-based contributions...wow.

[JJ Husker]

 

All he does is babble and every once in awhile hit on a hot button that some of his supporters want to hear. He is a complete idiot. I'm surprised his brain remembers to breathe. And, unfortunately, his competitor is a lying career politician.

 

 

As detestable as he is, this isn't true. He's savvy, and he's fantastic at deflecting double speak. He might have NPD but he's not brainless.

 

I disagree, but maybe "complete idiot" was not the way to put it.

 

You're the one who posted that nonsensical speech excerpt that rambled to and fro and never completed a single thought process. If that's savvy and not brainless, I wouldn't know what to call it. If you want to consider that "deflecting", I guess it did accomplish deflecting anyone from deciphering any intelligible point. The only thing that came through loud and clear was him telling us all once again how friggin' smart he is. It should be a clue that he isn't extremely sharp when he can't finish a thought and has to keep telling people just how smart he is. I guess it's working for him especially on his favorite demographic, so maybe in that aspect it is savvy. But to anyone who actually looks for a point to his ramblings, it is anything but smart. And this is coming from a guy who wishes he was electable, a guy who is not completely put off by his arrogance and loud mouth. But when you also toss in "doesn't really know sh#t from shinola", all the anti-establishment rhetoric starts to sound pretty hollow.

 

I used to think there might be a little substance to the thought that he didn't get that rich by being stupid. Now I just think he's one of those people that blindly stumbled into good deal after good deal. If he's smart, I want to be dumb.

[BigRedBuster]

One rule of thumb I've always had.

 

If someone has to constantly tell me how smart or how great they are....well....I'm not buying it.

[Landlord]

 

 

All he does is babble and every once in awhile hit on a hot button that some of his supporters want to hear. He is a complete idiot. I'm surprised his brain remembers to breathe. And, unfortunately, his competitor is a lying career politician.

 

 

As detestable as he is, this isn't true. He's savvy, and he's fantastic at deflecting double speak. He might have NPD but he's not brainless.

 

I disagree, but maybe "complete idiot" was not the way to put it.

 

You're the one who posted that nonsensical speech excerpt that rambled to and fro and never completed a single thought process. If that's savvy and not brainless, I wouldn't know what to call it. If you want to consider that "deflecting", I guess it did accomplish deflecting anyone from deciphering any intelligible point. The only thing that came through loud and clear was him telling us all once again how friggin' smart he is. It should be a clue that he isn't extremely sharp when he can't finish a thought and has to keep telling people just how smart he is. I guess it's working for him especially on his favorite demographic, so maybe in that aspect it is savvy. But to anyone who actually looks for a point to his ramblings, it is anything but smart. And this is coming from a guy who wishes he was electable, a guy who is not completely put off by his arrogance and loud mouth. But when you also toss in "doesn't really know sh#t from shinola", all the anti-establishment rhetoric starts to sound pretty hollow.

 

I used to think there might be a little substance to the thought that he didn't get that rich by being stupid. Now I just think he's one of those people that blindly stumbled into good deal after good deal. If he's smart, I want to be dumb.

 

 

 

He's smart by intentionally deciding not to say anything of substance about anything. His campaign is built entirely upon the disenfranchised, angry, fearful, ignorant populace that just wants to hear someone stick it to the government and to anything that isn't them. It doesn't matter if he doesn't actually SAY anything, in fact, that helps him, because that means no one can ever pin him down with any "gotcha" moments, because everything he says is either one big gotcha moment, or has none at all.

[TAKODA]

 

 

 

All he does is babble and every once in awhile hit on a hot button that some of his supporters want to hear. He is a complete idiot. I'm surprised his brain remembers to breathe. And, unfortunately, his competitor is a lying career politician.

 

 

As detestable as he is, this isn't true. He's savvy, and he's fantastic at deflecting double speak. He might have NPD but he's not brainless.

 

I disagree, but maybe "complete idiot" was not the way to put it.

 

You're the one who posted that nonsensical speech excerpt that rambled to and fro and never completed a single thought process. If that's savvy and not brainless, I wouldn't know what to call it. If you want to consider that "deflecting", I guess it did accomplish deflecting anyone from deciphering any intelligible point. The only thing that came through loud and clear was him telling us all once again how friggin' smart he is. It should be a clue that he isn't extremely sharp when he can't finish a thought and has to keep telling people just how smart he is. I guess it's working for him especially on his favorite demographic, so maybe in that aspect it is savvy. But to anyone who actually looks for a point to his ramblings, it is anything but smart. And this is coming from a guy who wishes he was electable, a guy who is not completely put off by his arrogance and loud mouth. But when you also toss in "doesn't really know sh#t from shinola", all the anti-establishment rhetoric starts to sound pretty hollow.

 

I used to think there might be a little substance to the thought that he didn't get that rich by being stupid. Now I just think he's one of those people that blindly stumbled into good deal after good deal. If he's smart, I want to be dumb.

 

 

 

He's smart by intentionally deciding not to say anything of substance about anything. His campaign is built entirely upon the disenfranchised, angry, fearful, ignorant populace that just wants to hear someone stick it to the government and to anything that isn't them. It doesn't matter if he doesn't actually SAY anything, in fact, that helps him, because that means no one can ever pin him down with any "gotcha" moments, because everything he says is either one big gotcha moment, or has none at all.

 

 

Exactly!

 

I can't bring myself to think about voting for Hillary but the Donald isn't making my thought process any easier.

 

It should be a real hoot watching the two of them square off in the upcoming presidential debates. Popcorn and beer at the ready!

[JJ Husker]

 

 

 

All he does is babble and every once in awhile hit on a hot button that some of his supporters want to hear. He is a complete idiot. I'm surprised his brain remembers to breathe. And, unfortunately, his competitor is a lying career politician.

 

 

As detestable as he is, this isn't true. He's savvy, and he's fantastic at deflecting double speak. He might have NPD but he's not brainless.

 

I disagree, but maybe "complete idiot" was not the way to put it.

 

You're the one who posted that nonsensical speech excerpt that rambled to and fro and never completed a single thought process. If that's savvy and not brainless, I wouldn't know what to call it. If you want to consider that "deflecting", I guess it did accomplish deflecting anyone from deciphering any intelligible point. The only thing that came through loud and clear was him telling us all once again how friggin' smart he is. It should be a clue that he isn't extremely sharp when he can't finish a thought and has to keep telling people just how smart he is. I guess it's working for him especially on his favorite demographic, so maybe in that aspect it is savvy. But to anyone who actually looks for a point to his ramblings, it is anything but smart. And this is coming from a guy who wishes he was electable, a guy who is not completely put off by his arrogance and loud mouth. But when you also toss in "doesn't really know sh#t from shinola", all the anti-establishment rhetoric starts to sound pretty hollow.

 

I used to think there might be a little substance to the thought that he didn't get that rich by being stupid. Now I just think he's one of those people that blindly stumbled into good deal after good deal. If he's smart, I want to be dumb.

 

 

 

He's smart by intentionally deciding not to say anything of substance about anything. His campaign is built entirely upon the disenfranchised, angry, fearful, ignorant populace that just wants to hear someone stick it to the government and to anything that isn't them. It doesn't matter if he doesn't actually SAY anything, in fact, that helps him, because that means no one can ever pin him down with any "gotcha" moments, because everything he says is either one big gotcha moment, or has none at all.

 

I would pretty much agree with that but with a couple caveats.

 

1- Not all of his supporters are all or necessarily any of those things. I truly believe some people have ended up with the short stick from our government. Some simply realize how much better things could be and are fed up with the status quo. Some feel they have not been represented well and that their voice and concerns are not being heard or respected. I don't think it's fair to lump all of his followers into the angry, fearful, ignorant camp. It's too easy to demonize and belittle his supporters when many just want something better.

 

2- You give him more credit than I do for just playing the game to his crowd. I think that is much of it but I also think he is a true believer of some of the crap he spews. I think he really does think he is THAT much smarter than everybody else. I think he actually believes some of the more ludicrous things he has said about pretty much any issue he expounds upon. I think he actually believes he has all the solutions, even the ones it is apparent he knows absolutely nothing about. That concerns me a lot more than if I thought he was just being the typical politician and angling for votes. I mean Hillary is right up there with the best at not getting pinned down and only saying what her crowd wants to hear. But the difference is, I think she goes in the backroom and laughs about it instead of walking away thinking she is some kind of god.

[Landlord]

1- Not all of his supporters are all or necessarily any of those things. I truly believe some people have ended up with the short stick from our government. Some simply realize how much better things could be and are fed up with the status quo. Some feel they have not been represented well and that their voice and concerns are not being heard or respected. I don't think it's fair to lump all of his followers into the angry, fearful, ignorant camp. It's too easy to demonize and belittle his supporters when many just want something better.

 

2- You give him more credit than I do for just playing the game to his crowd. I think that is much of it but I also think he is a true believer of some of the crap he spews. I think he really does think he is THAT much smarter than everybody else. I think he actually believes some of the more ludicrous things he has said about pretty much any issue he expounds upon. I think he actually believes he has all the solutions, even the ones it is apparent he knows absolutely nothing about. That concerns me a lot more than if I thought he was just being the typical politician and angling for votes. I mean Hillary is right up there with the best at not getting pinned down and only saying what her crowd wants to hear. But the difference is, I think she goes in the backroom and laughs about it instead of walking away thinking she is some kind of god.

 

 

To your first point, it's kind of funny because in general, most of the people that have those legitimate claims are the people even less likely to vote for Trump - women and racial minorities.

 

 

To the second, I agree with you. I think he has narcissistic personality disorder. I would say it like this. He doesn't know sh#t about any kind of actual policy or how government works, but he is convinced he does. However, he DOES know to distract and befuddle and confuse and infuriate and avoid and dodge with his speaking, and he's very good at it. He also knows that makes him look like an idiot, which he is, but doesn't think he is, but he's okay with it looking like that, because the payoff is a message that, beyond all reason, resonates with people.

[JJ Husker]

 

1- Not all of his supporters are all or necessarily any of those things. I truly believe some people have ended up with the short stick from our government. Some simply realize how much better things could be and are fed up with the status quo. Some feel they have not been represented well and that their voice and concerns are not being heard or respected. I don't think it's fair to lump all of his followers into the angry, fearful, ignorant camp. It's too easy to demonize and belittle his supporters when many just want something better.

 

2- You give him more credit than I do for just playing the game to his crowd. I think that is much of it but I also think he is a true believer of some of the crap he spews. I think he really does think he is THAT much smarter than everybody else. I think he actually believes some of the more ludicrous things he has said about pretty much any issue he expounds upon. I think he actually believes he has all the solutions, even the ones it is apparent he knows absolutely nothing about. That concerns me a lot more than if I thought he was just being the typical politician and angling for votes. I mean Hillary is right up there with the best at not getting pinned down and only saying what her crowd wants to hear. But the difference is, I think she goes in the backroom and laughs about it instead of walking away thinking she is some kind of god.

 

 

To your first point, it's kind of funny because in general, most of the people that have those legitimate claims are the people even less likely to vote for Trump - women and racial minorities.

 

 

To the second, I agree with you. I think he has narcissistic personality disorder. I would say it like this. He doesn't know sh#t about any kind of actual policy or how government works, but he is convinced he does. However, he DOES know to distract and befuddle and confuse and infuriate and avoid and dodge with his speaking, and he's very good at it. He also knows that makes him look like an idiot, which he is, but doesn't think he is, but he's okay with it looking like that, because the payoff is a message that, beyond all reason, resonates with people.

 

We're both right to some degree but women and minorities are not nearly the only ones who have anything to complain about. Sure some, maybe many, simply don't realize how good they really do have it in this country but, in some aspects, the pendulum has swung so far the other way that they've reached their breaking point. I'm not really in that camp but I can sure see it from here. I believe it is a very similar dynamic to what has transpired with Brexit. Anyone who thinks the last 8 years have been great and sunshine and roses likely won't be pleased with what our short to mid term future holds. Right or wrong, there will be some push back. You might say the last 8 years was just push back for the years preceding them. It's fairly natural that combined we don't let things swing too far either way. It sure doesn't bode well for our congress ever getting much of anything meaningful done though.

[Danny Bateman]

 

 

It looks like Trump and Clinton are back to being deadlocked.

 

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/06/30/us/politics/hillary-clinton-and-donald-trump-are-deadlocked-poll-shows.html?_r=0

 

http://www.qu.edu/news-and-events/quinnipiac-university-poll/national/release-detail?ReleaseID=2363

 

As I stated before, I think this thing is going to go back and forth. Most voters don't really focus on the candidates and their positions on issues until labor day or after, so I think at that point in time some of these national and state numbers will be more meaningful. What is most intriguing about this poll is that Trump is performing quite a bit better among Hispanics than Romney or McCain did.

If you look at individual polls, you are probably correct.

However, I prefer to look at websites that combine polls together.

 

It's similar to me liking 247 composite ratings of recruits better than any individual rating site.

 

 

Oh I agree I typically look at the RCP aggregate, but I also look at polling trends. If we see another poll come out in the next few days that shows the race at 2-5 points instead of 9-11 (like some were showing last week), I see that as a trend change. One thing that RCP does not do, however, is remove outliers where the numbers are so far off base they skew the entire average heavily.

 

 

Outliers are quite normal, to be honest. It's not necessarily good polling to remove them, nor good statistics. In any stats work I did back in school, they taught us to try to explain how outliers happened rather than exclude them.

 

n short, though, some variability is good. Nate Silver and Harry Enten com 538 have been hammering this point on Twitter.