commando Posted January 31 Share Posted January 31 10 hours ago, Archy1221 said: I would agree with this. It’s obvious Trump is gonna get stomped and now that the chattering class on twitter got their way, they are realizing what the end game is actually gonna be now. is it obvious he is going to get stomped? there are a lot of polls that suggest he might win. and it is definitely more than the "chattering class" on twitter that is getting its way. there are many members of MAGA holding positions of power who are doing everything they can do legal or otherwise to help get trump back. there is OAN and news max...and the night time talking heads on FOX that are dong a lot of that chattering. there are people like you who still jump to don the cons defense every time someone says anyone cross towards TFG. 1 Link to comment
TGHusker Posted January 31 Share Posted January 31 1 hour ago, BigRedBuster said: 3 1 Link to comment
Crusader Husker Posted January 31 Share Posted January 31 Babylon Bee is doing a parody on the GOP Taylor Swift conspiracy. The GOP is now a parody target of the Babylon Bee. Doesn't happen too often. Link to comment
Archy1221 Posted January 31 Share Posted January 31 50 minutes ago, commando said: there are people like you who still jump to don the cons defense every time someone says anyone cross towards TFG. I’m sorry what? If it’s false statement I will if it’s true statement I won’t. Feel free to link otherwise and you may find it best to not speak in absolutes next time. And yes, Trump will get stomped, imo 1 Link to comment
Archy1221 Posted January 31 Share Posted January 31 10 minutes ago, BigRedBuster said: No Brooklyn, you are not a snowflake. Just a deadbeat dad from news reports who didn’t pay child support. Worse than a snowflake imo 1 Link to comment
commando Posted January 31 Share Posted January 31 33 minutes ago, BigRedBuster said: WTF??? Link to comment
TGHusker Posted January 31 Share Posted January 31 49 minutes ago, BigRedBuster said: WTF??? Remind me to never move to Georgia. Link to comment
Dr. Strangelove Posted January 31 Share Posted January 31 This is getting funny. 14 hours ago, Archy1221 said: I would agree with this. It’s obvious Trump is gonna get stomped and now that the chattering class on twitter got their way, they are realizing what the end game is actually gonna be now. I'm not sure about this. Biden is going to have to win the popular vote by ~5%, margins that are extremely high just to barely win an electoral college victory. The electorate is to partisan for the margins to be much higher than that. If Biden only manages to win the popular vote by 4%, he easily loses. 1 Link to comment
teachercd Posted January 31 Share Posted January 31 3 minutes ago, Dr. Strangelove said: This is getting funny. I'm not sure about this. Biden is going to have to win the popular vote by ~5%, margins that are extremely high just to barely win an electoral college victory. The electorate is to partisan for the margins to be much higher than that. If Biden only manages to win the popular vote by 4%, he easily loses. Which states do you think are the most important swing states this time around? 1 1 Link to comment
Archy1221 Posted January 31 Share Posted January 31 8 minutes ago, Dr. Strangelove said: This is getting funny. I'm not sure about this. Biden is going to have to win the popular vote by ~5%, margins that are extremely high just to barely win an electoral college victory. The electorate is to partisan for the margins to be much higher than that. If Biden only manages to win the popular vote by 4%, he easily loses. I don’t see Trump winning AZ, PA, or MI because those GOP state orgs are a disaster. Outside of 2016, WI is usually close but just seems to go Dem. 1 Link to comment
Dr. Strangelove Posted January 31 Share Posted January 31 Just now, teachercd said: Which states do you think are the most important swing states this time around? The same states that were decided by razor thin margins in the 2020 election: Arizona Georgia Wisconsin Two other states of importance that may flip are: Pennsylvania Nevada The reason why I think Biden is a slight underdog is simply because the margins he has to win by nationally - approximately 5% popular vote victory - may simply not be possible or viable in a hyper-polarized environment. The Bias of the Electoral College currently favors Republican candidates. Consider the state of Wisconsin: 2016 - Wisconsin finished R+0.7. The National Popular Vote: finished D+2.1. Therefore, Wisconsin was R+2.8 compared to the rest of the country 2020 - Wisconsin finished D+0.65. The National Popular Vote: finished D+4.5. Therefore, Wisconsin was R+3.75. Even though Joe Biden won the state, he had to win the national popular vote by 2% more than Hillary Clinton in 2016. If a similar trend continues into 2024, Joe Biden would have to win a HUGE popular vote victory to keep up with the rightward shift of the state. By 2028, Wisconsin is probably similar to a state like Iowa or Ohio that is no longer competitive. There are similar shifts going on in all the swing states (Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Nevada shifting to the right; Georgia and Arizona shifting to the left). The question is: which trends are happening faster? What kind of margin does a Democrat have to win by in order to win an Electoral College victory? Unless polls are showing robust strength in Biden - a consistent lead of 4-5% - he's likely to lose. Any polling strength of Trump that shows him favored by any amount would mean he wins in an electoral college blowout. Polls that show Biden winning by a small amount - 1-2% - probably indicates a similar result to the 2016 election. A robust popular vote victory but an electoral college loss. 1 1 1 Link to comment
Archy1221 Posted January 31 Share Posted January 31 27 minutes ago, Dr. Strangelove said: The same states that were decided by razor thin margins in the 2020 election: Arizona Georgia Wisconsin Two other states of importance that may flip are: Pennsylvania Nevada The reason why I think Biden is a slight underdog is simply because the margins he has to win by nationally - approximately 5% popular vote victory - may simply not be possible or viable in a hyper-polarized environment. The Bias of the Electoral College currently favors Republican candidates. Consider the state of Wisconsin: 2016 - Wisconsin finished R+0.7. The National Popular Vote: finished D+2.1. Therefore, Wisconsin was R+2.8 compared to the rest of the country 2020 - Wisconsin finished D+0.65. The National Popular Vote: finished D+4.5. Therefore, Wisconsin was R+3.75. Even though Joe Biden won the state, he had to win the national popular vote by 2% more than Hillary Clinton in 2016. If a similar trend continues into 2024, Joe Biden would have to win a HUGE popular vote victory to keep up with the rightward shift of the state. By 2028, Wisconsin is probably similar to a state like Iowa or Ohio that is no longer competitive. There are similar shifts going on in all the swing states (Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Nevada shifting to the right; Georgia and Arizona shifting to the left). The question is: which trends are happening faster? What kind of margin does a Democrat have to win by in order to win an Electoral College victory? Unless polls are showing robust strength in Biden - a consistent lead of 4-5% - he's likely to lose. Any polling strength of Trump that shows him favored by any amount would mean he wins in an electoral college blowout. Polls that show Biden winning by a small amount - 1-2% - probably indicates a similar result to the 2016 election. A robust popular vote victory but an electoral college loss. More than the entirety of the popular vote total win for both HRC and TBG happened in 2 states…CA and NY. Over 8 million vote difference in 2020 in just those 2 states. 1 Link to comment
JJ Husker Posted January 31 Share Posted January 31 Very good article here by The Atlantic on why our politics are so polarized. Really, read it. https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2024/01/cultural-pessimism-america-self-fulfilling-effects/677261/ 1 Link to comment
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