The 2020 Presidential Election - Convention & General Election

[B.B. Hemingway]

6 hours ago, TheSker said:

Relying on polling for accuracy, huh?.....

 

You mean you don't buy that polling a couple thousand people from the East or West coast tells the whole story?

[RedDenver]

56 minutes ago, StPaulHusker said:

 

I think the issue is getting them to vote.  Not how they lean.

Absolutely. Older people turn out to vote in WAY bigger numbers than younger people. But the combination of the Boomers dying and the Millennials voting more as they older means that the Millennials will overtaking the Boomers as the largest voting generation at some point.

 

7 hours ago, TheSker said:

Relying on polling for accuracy, huh?.....

 

51 minutes ago, B.B. Hemingway said:

You mean you don't buy that polling a couple thousand people from the East or West coast tells the whole story?

Pew is a reputable pollster, and polling for opinions is WAY more accurate than going with a single person's opinion - even if it's @B.B. Hemingway

[B.B. Hemingway]

22 minutes ago, RedDenver said:

Absolutely. Older people turn out to vote in WAY bigger numbers than younger people. But the combination of the Boomers dying and the Millennials voting more as they older means that the Millennials will overtaking the Boomers as the largest voting generation at some point.

 

 

Pew is a reputable pollster, and polling for opinions is WAY more accurate than going with a single person's opinion - even if it's @B.B. Hemingway

 

I imagine that I'm more aware of my immediate surroundings than they are. I can't speak for the whole country, but neither can they.

[RedDenver]

1 hour ago, B.B. Hemingway said:

I imagine that I'm more aware of my immediate surroundings than they are. I can't speak for the whole country, but neither can they.

I'm sure you're a lot more aware of your immediate surroundings than anything nationally-focused, but that has nothing to do with this discussion. And the polling isn't "speaking" for the whole country - it's a measure of the opinions of the whole country. If you want to critique the polling methodology, then go right ahead - Pew describes what they did in great detail.

 

But this polling discussion started because of an assertion you made: "I assure you that traditional conservative values are alive and well among young people."

[Moiraine]

Millenials lean more liberal than any generation that came before them in the U.S.. Almost no one would disagree with this. It’s been shown over and over.

[Danny Bateman]

There are definitely conservative Millennials but per the data our generation is vastly more liberal than not. It's almost hip to be a conservative because they're so definitively the minority for people our age. It's not particularly surprising, either - in my lifetime I've experienced two Republican presidents (born in '91). Dubya was super unpopular by the end of his administration between wars and the economy melting down. And Trump is Trump. His behavior doesn't leave much room for upward growth in popularity.

 

The old axiom will probably hold true about us getting more conservative as we get older, but relative to other generations Republicans are much further underwater.

[B.B. Hemingway]

1 hour ago, Moiraine said:

Millenials lean more liberal than any generation that came before them in the U.S.. Almost no one would disagree with this. It’s been shown over and over.

 

Is it safe to say that opinions change? I have numerous friends in college that we're swooned by the liberal environment while in school, but have since leaned back towards conservitsm. This isn't an uncommon trend.

 

1 hour ago, RedDenver said:

I'm sure you're a lot more aware of your immediate surroundings than anything nationally-focused, but that has nothing to do with this discussion. And the polling isn't "speaking" for the whole country - it's a measure of the opinions of the whole country. If you want to critique the polling methodology, then go right ahead - Pew describes what they did in great detail.

 

But this polling discussion started because of an assertion you made: "I assure you that traditional conservative values are alive and well among young people."

 

Do you really expect conservative values to fall by the wayside? Wasn't there 600,000 at the recent Pro-Life event? If you're suggesting the conservative party will change, I'd probably agree. But core conservative values are going nowhere (2A, Pro-Life, tax policies, and of course, Capitalism).

[Moiraine]

5 minutes ago, B.B. Hemingway said:

 

Is it safe to say that opinions change? I have numerous friends in college that we're swooned by the liberal environment while in school, but have since leaned back towards conservitsm. This isn't an uncommon trend.

 

 

You misunderstand. It’s by year and age group. Millenials lean more liberal than any other generation did at their age.

[B.B. Hemingway]

1 minute ago, Moiraine said:

 

 

You misunderstand. It’s by year and age group. Millenials lean more liberal than any other generation did at their age.

 

Gotcha.

[RedDenver]

12 minutes ago, B.B. Hemingway said:

 

Is it safe to say that opinions change? I have numerous friends in college that we're swooned by the liberal environment while in school, but have since leaned back towards conservitsm. This isn't an uncommon trend.

Look at the article I linked and you'll see each generation is less conservative than the one before. It's always possible that views will change as even the most accurate polling is only a snapshot in time, but the data shows that people have been trending away from conservatism for decades.

 

12 minutes ago, B.B. Hemingway said:

Do you really expect conservative values to fall by the wayside? Wasn't there 600,000 at the recent Pro-Life event? If you're suggesting the conservative party will change, I'd probably agree. But core conservative values are going nowhere (2A, Pro-Life, tax policies, and of course, Capitalism).

Conservative values are going to change or disappear - that's just what happens over time. For example, conservatism originally had the core belief of environmental protection and conservation, but that's not even a part of current conservatism.

[Danny Bateman]

9 minutes ago, B.B. Hemingway said:

 

Is it safe to say that opinions change? I have numerous friends in college that we're swooned by the liberal environment while in school, but have since leaned back towards conservitsm. This isn't an uncommon trend. 

 

 

Do you really expect conservative values to fall by the wayside? Wasn't there 600,000 at the recent Pro-Life event? If you're suggesting the conservative party will change, I'd probably agree. But core conservative values are going nowhere (2A, Pro-Life, tax policies, and of course, Capitalism). 

 

To your first part: Yes, to an extent. It's probably largely determined by your surrounding environment. But also I'm out in the middle of red-dead Wyoming for school right now and it hasn't changed a lick about most of my politics. Really the only thing that's different is I occasionally chuckle about how utterly bizarre the local conservative radio is.

 

I do think the Republican Party will eventually have to change. Under Obama they largely became the party of white resentment, in addition to the core values you mentioned, and Trump has only accelerated the trend. They'll still be able to attract those core value voters but it seems to me their main message to other votes has for a while now been about social issues - primarily white identity politics.

 

America is old and white now but will become increasingly less so as we move forward. Eventually that message won't be enough to win when you've alienated enough of the rest of the country.

[B.B. Hemingway]

4 minutes ago, Clifford Franklin said:

 

To your first part: Yes, to an extent. It's probably largely determined by your surrounding environment. But also I'm out in the middle of red-dead Wyoming for school right now and it hasn't changed a lick about most of my politics. Really the only thing that's different is I occasionally chuckle about how utterly bizarre the local conservative radio is.

 

I do think the Republican Party will eventually have to change. Under Obama they largely became the party of white resentment, in addition to the core values you mentioned, and Trump has only accelerated the trend. They'll still be able to attract those core value voters but it seems to me their main message to other votes has for a while now been about social issues - primarily white identity politics.

 

America is old and white now but will become increasingly less so as we move forward. Eventually that message won't be enough to win when you've alienated enough of the rest of the country.

 

My hope, believe it or not, remains with the Hispanics. A truly conservative people. Not universally obviously, but it's a conservitism that is found in the youth as well.

[Danny Bateman]

11 minutes ago, B.B. Hemingway said:

 

My hope, believe it or not, remains with the Hispanics. A truly conservative people. Not universally obviously, but it's a conservitism that is found in the youth as well.

 

That's very reasonable, IMO. That was the plan in their 2012 post-mortem analysis IIRC. Culturally they are a very good fit for the GOP. The Cuban population of Florida is the reason it is reliably red in most statewide races.

 

The party is just going to have to survey the damage after Trump is gone. He's hurt a lot more than he's helped.

[B.B. Hemingway]

14 minutes ago, Clifford Franklin said:

 

That's very reasonable, IMO. That was the plan in their 2012 post-mortem analysis IIRC. Culturally they are a very good fit for the GOP. The Cuban population of Florida is the reason it is reliably red in most statewide races.

 

The party is just going to have to survey the damage after Trump is gone. He's hurt a lot more than he's helped.

 

Couldn't agree more on Trump.

 

It was my biggest fear of his possible election. 

[TheSker]

40 minutes ago, B.B. Hemingway said:

 

My hope, believe it or not, remains with the Hispanics. A truly conservative people. Not universally obviously, but it's a conservitism that is found in the youth as well.

I've found this to be true also.