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The Trump Economy


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Just now, Husker from Kansas said:

 

I can agree with this, a lot of farmers around here are struggling more due to poor yields then the what the tariff's will do. But I think the real travesty is the fact that the small time farmer is almost non existent. Farmers feel pressured to farm more land, have bigger equipment, larger yields, etc, etc. This has caused a lot of farmers to go into massive debt in order to buy the necessary equipment, seed, fertilizer, fuel and everything else it takes. 

I agree, but that has gradually been happening over the last 20 or so  years.  Its happened to the pig farmers, and the row crop farmers mostly, but I also see it happening to the cattlemen.  I think a lot of it has to do with young people not staying around the small rural communities to farm/ranch.  The town I work in, and grew up in has also really changed the last 20 or so years, and I attribute much of the change to the decline of small family farms. 

 

The last two  years have been pretty tough rain wise here in extreme southeast Nebraska.  We have finally gotten some rain the last week, and it will help some.  We will get by though.

 

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46 minutes ago, Husker from Kansas said:

 

I can agree with this, a lot of farmers around here are struggling more due to poor yields then the what the tariff's will do. But I think the real travesty is the fact that the small time farmer is almost non existent. Farmers feel pressured to farm more land, have bigger equipment, larger yields, etc, etc. This has caused a lot of farmers to go into massive debt in order to buy the necessary equipment, seed, fertilizer, fuel and everything else it takes. 

 

40 minutes ago, Huskertrapper said:

I agree, but that has gradually been happening over the last 20 or so  years.  Its happened to the pig farmers, and the row crop farmers mostly, but I also see it happening to the cattlemen.  I think a lot of it has to do with young people not staying around the small rural communities to farm/ranch.  The town I work in, and grew up in has also really changed the last 20 or so years, and I attribute much of the change to the decline of small family farms. 

 

The last two  years have been pretty tough rain wise here in extreme southeast Nebraska.  We have finally gotten some rain the last week, and it will help some.  We will get by though.

 

 

Family farmers have been struggling with debt for decades. Probably since the Dust Bowl, probably before that.

 

I remember a joke back in the 1980s my grandpa (who farmed) told us:

 

A reporter was asking a local farmer what he was going to do with the million dollars he just won in the lottery. Was he going to retire? Travel? Buy a big car? 

 

"Nah," said the man. "I'll probably just keep farming until it's all gone."

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36 minutes ago, knapplc said:

 

 

Family farmers have been struggling with debt for decades. Probably since the Dust Bowl, probably before that.

 

I remember a joke back in the 1980s my grandpa (who farmed) told us:

 

A reporter was asking a local farmer what he was going to do with the million dollars he just won in the lottery. Was he going to retire? Travel? Buy a big car? 

 

"Nah," said the man. "I'll probably just keep farming until it's all gone."

sounds like something my Grandpa would have said.  He was a farmer, my dad also farmed the same land.    

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So this guy wants to put tariffs on "Canadian" cars, to bring Canada to the negotiating table. Ok, but those cars are built with parts made in the USA, and owned by American OEMs. So he wants to bring Canada to the table by punishing American car companies and their supplier base, all because Canada is protecting it's dairy farmers. Something that we probably do too. Good plan Donnie...

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5 hours ago, ZRod said:

So this guy wants to put tariffs on "Canadian" cars, to bring Canada to the negotiating table. Ok but those cars are built with parts made in the USA, and owned by American OEMs. So he wants to bring Canada to the table by punishing American car companies and their supplier base, all because Canada is protecting it's dairy farmers. Something that we probably do to. Good plan Donnie...

 

 

He’s stupid. Par for the course. 

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  • 2 weeks later...
46 minutes ago, BigRedBuster said:

I'm posting this here and acknowledging that there was a lot that came before Trump came to office that contributed to this.

 

 

So serious question... How many would be ok if we continued this trend for the next 5 to 7 years? Knowing that the recovery was slow, but steadily positive. Do we really need to slash regulations to "spur" an already positively trending economy? Curious what people's thoughts are.

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1 hour ago, ZRod said:

So serious question... How many would be ok if we continued this trend for the next 5 to 7 years? Knowing that the recovery was slow, but steadily positive. Do we really need to slash regulations to "spur" an already positively trending economy? Curious what people's thoughts are.

 

 

The environment is on the top of my list of things to care about, unless there’s a disaster or someone invades the U.S. or there’s a coup.

 

So, to answer the question, we didn’t need to deregulate. People’s lives and keeping animals and plants from going extinct are more important than huge corporations increasing their profits.

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1 hour ago, ZRod said:

So serious question... How many would be ok if we continued this trend for the next 5 to 7 years? Knowing that the recovery was slow, but steadily positive. Do we really need to slash regulations to "spur" an already positively trending economy? Curious what people's thoughts are.

Needless, redundant regulations yes -  there is often overlapping regs between various agencies.  Sometimes we no longer need the regs.  Thus I think we should always be for  auditing what regs are needed and cutting those that have outlived their usefulness or intended purpose.  The goal should be 'efficient govt' and not necessarily 'smaller govt'.  If smaller govt is the goal, then our eyes are on the wrong prize and we will slash needful things that in the end hurt people, business, environment, etc.   But if the goal is efficient govt then we will aim at keeping regs that promote the 'common welfare' of our society without causing an unwarranted burden on our right to  "Life, Liberty and the pursuit of Happiness"

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2 hours ago, ZRod said:

So serious question... How many would be ok if we continued this trend for the next 5 to 7 years? Knowing that the recovery was slow, but steadily positive. Do we really need to slash regulations to "spur" an already positively trending economy? Curious what people's thoughts are.

I have been very happy with the economy over the last 6-8 years.  In fact, on top of Trump being a total idiot, this is one of the biggest issues with me that I didn't like.  He wanted to come in and change everything, slash everything, bolster the economy....bla bla bla....

 

I sat back and thought....WTF???  the last 5-7 years have been pretty dang good....why do we need to do all of that and potentially screw everything up?  Which.....I ultimately think will happen.  So...I already didn't like what he was proposing.....then he ended up being a total blubbering idiot.....which scares me even more.

 

I am a FIRM believer in things like this, slow and steady is way better because, what goes up always goes down.  If it goes up fast....it's going to come crashing down.  If it goes slow and steady, it will turn south and we have time to react.

 

TG also reminded me of something else.  As a rule, I am not opposed to going through regulations and weeding out old, repetitive, outdated regulations....or ones that don't accomplish what they were sat in place to do.  I am NOT for the wholesale slashing of regulations just because a "D" put them in place.

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I am going to post this here with this caveat.  I have no clue if my feelings on this are an indication of where things are headed and even if I'm right, I have no clue if Trump's policies are causing it.

 

But....

 

Many here know our company sells products into the housing industry all over the US.  We aren't a huge company, but big enough that I can get a feel for how the economy is going in various areas of the country.

 

For most of this year, we have been very busy.  On top of that, it has been very difficult at times to get trucks to deliver materials.  There were so many loads that need delivered, trucks could basically name their price.  It made for an interesting summer.

 

However, in the last month, our Florida customers have indicated that their business has really slowed down.  Back in 2007, Florida was the first place that started telling us the housing market was pulling back and their sales dropped.  Company wide, over the last 6 weeks, our orders have been below last year's.  On top of this, our shipping department is telling me it's no problem getting trucks.

 

Now, saying that, many times we see a pull back in August due to family vacations and people getting kids back to school....only to see a pick up going into the fall.

 

It's going to be really interesting to see if this is a seasonal issue or if this is an indication of a pull back in the entire economy.

 

Honestly, no matter who would have won in 2016, I was preparing for a pull back at some point, just because we were due.  We have been growing since 2009.  The economy never goes up without pulling back every once in a while.

 

Time will tell.

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On 9/12/2018 at 10:21 AM, ZRod said:

So serious question... How many would be ok if we continued this trend for the next 5 to 7 years? Knowing that the recovery was slow, but steadily positive. Do we really need to slash regulations to "spur" an already positively trending economy? Curious what people's thoughts are.

There's a small problem with this scenario, while wages have risen, inflation has risen about the same or faster meaning that real wages have actually been flat or falling. And when you break it down into different income percentiles, you can see that the top 10% are getting most of the rise and the bottom 50% getting nothing.

 

In U.S., wage growth is being wiped out entirely by inflation

Quote

Cost of living was up 2.9 percent from July 2017 to July 2018, the Labor Department reported Friday, an inflation rate that outstripped a 2.7 percent increase in wages over the same period. The average U.S. “real wage,” a federal measure of pay that takes inflation into account, fell to $10.76 an hour last month, 2 cents down from where it was a year ago.

For most U.S. workers, real wages have barely budged in decades

FT_18.07.26_hourlyWage_increases.png

 

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