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The 2024 Presidential Election- The LONG General Election


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On 2/2/2024 at 9:43 AM, TGHusker said:

The Drudge Report is a mix bags of political, economic and sometimes strange articles.- it is

one of the most read news gathering websites on the net.

Is that still true? I used to look at Drudge headlines many years ago, but didn't know it still existed. I thought Drudge sold it and it tanked.

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26 minutes ago, nic said:

Is that still true? I used to look at Drudge headlines many years ago, but didn't know it still existed. I thought Drudge sold it and it tanked.

I think it still gets a high number of views 

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On 2/1/2024 at 5:24 AM, DevoHusker said:

None of my circle is excited and most said they weren't backing him, until he basically became the nominee a couple weeks ago

 

He become the nominee by leading all GOP challengers by a landslide. We have anecdotal evidence about Republicans wanting out of Trump's shadow, but they haven't lifted a finger to stop him. 

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22 hours ago, teachercd said:

My betting site changed today

 

It is more 50/50 now instead of being in favor of trump.  

Unless polls consistently show Biden ahead nationally by ~5%, the race is comfortably in the hands of Donald Trump.

 

Any national popular vote lead by Trump = Electoral College Blowout                                              <- We are here now

Minor Biden lead (1-3%) = Popular vote victory for Biden; Electoral College win for Trump           <- We are trending this way by election day. 2016 part deux.

Biden Lead of 4-5% = Close Electoral College Victory                         <- It seems extremely difficult to get to these margins. It may not be possible.

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1 hour ago, Dr. Strangelove said:

Unless polls consistently show Biden ahead nationally by ~5%, the race is comfortably in the hands of Donald Trump.

 

Any national popular vote lead by Trump = Electoral College Blowout                                              <- We are here now

Minor Biden lead (1-3%) = Popular vote victory for Biden; Electoral College win for Trump           <- We are trending this way by election day. 2016 part deux.

Biden Lead of 4-5% = Close Electoral College Victory                         <- It seems extremely difficult to get to these margins. It may not be possible.

What did the polls say in 2020?  I don't remember that one at all.

 

 I know in 16 Clinton, by gambling sites, was basically a lock.

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1 minute ago, teachercd said:

What did the polls say in 2020?  I don't remember that one at all.

 

 I know in 16 Clinton, by gambling sites, was basically a lock.



Trump was basically never ahead or even close to Biden. Also, Biden is down in all battleground states right now except Minnesota and Pennsylvania.

22714.jpeg

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1 minute ago, Moiraine said:



Trump was basically never ahead or even close to Biden. Also, Biden is down in all battleground states right now except Minnesota and Pennsylvania.

22714.jpeg

So, in 16 they were way wrong, in 2020 they were pretty accurate.

 

 

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Just now, teachercd said:

So, in 16 they were way wrong, in 2020 they were pretty accurate.

 

 



Yes. And they haven't been way wrong in favor of a Democrat yet, but I guess it could happen. Other things could change to, but I'm failing to see what more Trump could do to turn people off. It has to be Biden doing something. The other problem is when Kennedy is in the mix, he's taking more votes from Biden than from Trump, which is crazy.

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The thing that freaks me out is the country is so divided we could have chaos no matter who wins.

 

People are like if Trump wins I am leaving the US.

 

Others, if Biden wins I am leaving the US.

 

I am like because these 2 dudes and going run again, I am out!

 

But seriously, how long until one of them falls and breaks a hip!

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7 minutes ago, Moiraine said:



Yes. And they haven't been way wrong in favor of a Democrat yet, but I guess it could happen. Other things could change to, but I'm failing to see what more Trump could do to turn people off. It has to be Biden doing something. The other problem is when Kennedy is in the mix, he's taking more votes from Biden than from Trump, which is crazy.

Wow, I forgot about Kennedy, is that guy still actually running?

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5 minutes ago, Moiraine said:



Yes. And they haven't been way wrong in favor of a Democrat yet, but I guess it could happen. Other things could change to, but I'm failing to see what more Trump could do to turn people off. It has to be Biden doing something. The other problem is when Kennedy is in the mix, he's taking more votes from Biden than from Trump, which is crazy.

Honestly, just dramatically lower your expectations for what matters to the median voter.

 

They don't think and fill in a voting bubble. They think that "both sides are bad". Biden has "legal trouble" and so does Trump. Trump was found guilty of a weird crime but that was probably just politics. They think Biden would be found guilty if he went to court too.  They then ask themselves if it cost $8 more dollars to fill up their F-250 Extended Cab/Hyundai Odyssey Minivan in October. That's pretty much it.

 

Once you give up hope for the median voter it becomes a lot easier to understand the political climate we find ourselves in. Republican voters will never leave their party, no matter how morally bankrupt it becomes. You're then left with a very small number of persuadable voters who truly do not pay attention to nor care about each political candidate. They are what I describe above.

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2 minutes ago, Dr. Strangelove said:

Honestly, just dramatically lower your expectations for what matters to the median voter.

 

They don't think and fill in a voting bubble. They think that "both sides are bad". Biden has "legal trouble" and so does Trump. Trump was found guilty of a weird crime but that was probably just politics. They think Biden would be found guilty if he went to court too.  They then ask themselves if it cost $8 more dollars to fill up their F-250 Extended Cab/Hyundai Odyssey Minivan in October. That's pretty much it.

 

Once you give up hope for the median voter it becomes a lot easier to understand the political climate we find ourselves in. Republican voters will never leave their party, no matter how morally bankrupt it becomes. You're then left with a very small number of persuadable voters who truly do not pay attention to nor care about each political candidate. They are what I describe above.

I mean, that is not true.

 

@BigRedBuster

@JJ Husker

They have left the R's.

 

I am guessing so have many others.  

 

I single handily got a few posters to change their strong views on being against abortion.  Change happens. 

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8 minutes ago, teachercd said:

Wow, I forgot about Kennedy, is that guy still actually running?

 

 

He is polling at double digits

 

 

8 minutes ago, Crusader Husker said:

The thing that freaks me out is the country is so divided we could have chaos no matter who wins.

 

People are like if Trump wins I am leaving the US.

 

Others, if Biden wins I am leaving the US.

 

I am like because these 2 dudes and going run again, I am out!

 

But seriously, how long until one of them falls and breaks a hip!

 

 

Trump being old isn't even close to being the worst thing about Trump. It is the worst thing about Biden.

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