The 2024 Presidential Election- The LONG General Election

[TGHusker]

On 11/3/2023 at 11:25 AM, BigRedBuster said:

Well, surprisingly since this is a Nebraska board, we have had very few actual Trump fans on here.  The one regular has stated multiple times that he won't vote for him again.  I can think of probably one other that, I would not be surprised, if he WOULD still vote for him.  But, I haven't seen him on this board for a long time.

 

PS...I dont' even remember who currently has my vote in the poll.  I went through the list thinking I would just revote.....I couldn't commit to any of them.

The “incumbent” is trailing the fraud in 5 key states.  Neither one should be their party’s nominee   The incumbent is losing the advantage of being the incumbent and the fraud should be in jail

 

https://dnyuz.com/2023/11/05/trump-leads-in-5-critical-states-as-voters-blast-biden-times-siena-poll-finds/

[Scarlet]

3 hours ago, TGHusker said:

The “incumbent” is trailing the fraud in 5 key states.  Neither one should be their party’s nominee   The incumbent is losing the advantage of being the incumbent and the fraud should be in jail

 

https://dnyuz.com/2023/11/05/trump-leads-in-5-critical-states-as-voters-blast-biden-times-siena-poll-finds/

 

A year out polls are basically worthless.  Besides who still has a landline or answers an unknown number?

 

In mid 1983 Mondale lead Reagan by 10%
1991 Bush was up by 23% over any Democrat 
1995 Dole was up 4% over Clinton

2011 Obama was down 5%

2015 Hillary was up 24% over Trump

 

[teachercd]

4 hours ago, Scarlet said:

 

A year out polls are basically worthless.  Besides who still has a landline or answers an unknown number?

 

In mid 1983 Mondale lead Reagan by 10%
1991 Bush was up by 23% over any Democrat 
1995 Dole was up 4% over Clinton

2011 Obama was down 5%

2015 Hillary was up 24% over Trump

 

Yeah, these are all just for clicks and something to talk about.

 

None of these polls matter right now.

[TGHusker]

4 hours ago, teachercd said:

Yeah, these are all just for clicks and something to talk about.

 

None of these polls matter right now.

There I gave you something to talk about 

[Dr. Strangelove]

On 11/5/2023 at 8:21 AM, TGHusker said:

The “incumbent” is trailing the fraud in 5 key states.  Neither one should be their party’s nominee   The incumbent is losing the advantage of being the incumbent and the fraud should be in jail

 

https://dnyuz.com/2023/11/05/trump-leads-in-5-critical-states-as-voters-blast-biden-times-siena-poll-finds/

Polls aren't predictive this far out, and a lot is going on in those polls that are suspect. Young voters being anywhere close to even just isn't going to happen for example. 

 

But it does show that the election will be extremely close, and possibly slightly Trump favored at this point. Probably 55/45 if you had to place a bet. 

[DevoHusker]

15 minutes ago, Dr. Strangelove said:

But it does show that the election will be extremely close, and possibly slightly Trump favored at this point. Probably 55/45 if you had to place a bet. 

 

You always seem have a better grasp of the overall big picture, and are often correct, from what I have seen.

 

But, I cannot get a satisfactory answer as to how the above can be true. 

 

2020 results show Biden with 81 million votes, to 74 million for Trump, which correlated to 51% to 47% of the popular vote. And, an overwhelming 306-232 in the Electoral College.

 

Biden is doing okay, and (at least according to you) the economy is doing okay. Trump was defeated soundly, and is now facing criminal indictments. How in the world could Trump ever win?? or even be favored 55/45?? No one seems to be able to explain the angst and worry from Biden and the left. 

[Dr. Strangelove]

4 hours ago, DevoHusker said:

 

You always seem have a better grasp of the overall big picture, and are often correct, from what I have seen.

 

But, I cannot get a satisfactory answer as to how the above can be true. 

 

2020 results show Biden with 81 million votes, to 74 million for Trump, which correlated to 51% to 47% of the popular vote. And, an overwhelming 306-232 in the Electoral College.

 

Biden is doing okay, and (at least according to you) the economy is doing okay. Trump was defeated soundly, and is now facing criminal indictments. How in the world could Trump ever win?? or even be favored 55/45?? No one seems to be able to explain the angst and worry from Biden and the left. 

Right, I think the first thing is to ignore a lot of the macro totals posted. Yes, Biden won by many millions of votes, and yes he won by a lot in terms of a percentage of votes cast. All of that is great, but it's not really what decides the presidency. In reality, the number of votes that separated Biden and Trump wasn't 7 million, it was far less than that. The reason is because most states don't matter. Biden winning California by millions of votes is great, but he only needs to win by 1 vote to secure the electoral votes of the state. Thus, only a handful of swing states determine who'll win the Presidency. In 2020, the margin that separated Biden and Trump were:

 

- Wisconsin by ~20,600 votes

- Arizona by ~10,500 votes

- Georgia by ~11,800 votes

 

If Trump managed to sway half these voters in each state - a total of ~21,000 voters across those three states - he wins an electoral college victory. Going into 2024, these states along with Nevada and Pennsylvania are likely to determine the winner of the Presidency. Based on the 2020 election, as well as the 2022 midterms, Republican electoral strength in those states is robust. Secondly, partisanship is increasing... the number of voters who change their minds from election to election is extremely small. Thus, all of those states are still going to be extremely close. The number of voters Trump will lose is small no matter his legal troubles or what he does or says.

 

In sum, think of the 2024 election on riding on the shoulders of approximately 50k voters spread across 3 or 4 states. These voters are low propensity voters - they don't pay attention to politics, actively dislike voting, and are only motivated by unique factors extremely important to their unique situations. They also, on average, lean conservative. They'll be motivated to vote based on small changes in gas prices, shifts in prices that affect their business, and many issues they will blame the incumbent for. 

 

There are other long term trends that don't really favor Democrats when it comes to Presidential elections until the 2030s - and essentially dooms their chances of winning the Senate many times over the next few decades. But that's for a different post.

[teachercd]

What you are saying totally makes sense but I think the biggest thing to ask is...

 

Does anyone know, personally know, a NEW Trump voter?  There are none.

 

The only way Biden gets beat is if the people that voted for him last time decide they are simply not going to vote this time, at all.

 

- Wisconsin by ~20,600 votes

- Arizona by ~10,500 votes

- Georgia by ~11,800 votes

 

So unless, in those states, that many people decide to just not vote and everyone who voted for Trump last time decides to vote for him again...there is nothing to worry about.

 

Why would you have voted for Joe last time and NOT vote for him this time?  

I suppose we could say "lazy" as in the voter might just not go vote, but that still won't be enough of them.

 

 

 

[DevoHusker]

27 minutes ago, Dr. Strangelove said:

Right, I think the first thing is to ignore a lot of the macro totals posted. Yes, Biden won by many millions of votes, and yes he won by a lot in terms of a percentage of votes cast. All of that is great, but it's not really what decides the presidency. In reality, the number of votes that separated Biden and Trump wasn't 7 million, it was far less than that. The reason is because most states don't matter. Biden winning California by millions of votes is great, but he only needs to win by 1 vote to secure the electoral votes of the state. Thus, only a handful of swing states determine who'll win the Presidency. In 2020, the margin that separated Biden and Trump were:

 

- Wisconsin by ~20,600 votes

- Arizona by ~10,500 votes

- Georgia by ~11,800 votes

 

If Trump managed to sway half these voters in each state - a total of ~21,000 voters across those three states - he wins an electoral college victory. Going into 2024, these states along with Nevada and Pennsylvania are likely to determine the winner of the Presidency. Based on the 2020 election, as well as the 2022 midterms, Republican electoral strength in those states is robust. Secondly, partisanship is increasing... the number of voters who change their minds from election to election is extremely small. Thus, all of those states are still going to be extremely close. The number of voters Trump will lose is small no matter his legal troubles or what he does or says.

 

In sum, think of the 2024 election on riding on the shoulders of approximately 50k voters spread across 3 or 4 states. These voters are low propensity voters - they don't pay attention to politics, actively dislike voting, and are only motivated by unique factors extremely important to their unique situations. They also, on average, lean conservative. They'll be motivated to vote based on small changes in gas prices, shifts in prices that affect their business, and many issues they will blame the incumbent for. 

 

There are other long term trends that don't really favor Democrats when it comes to Presidential elections until the 2030s - and essentially dooms their chances of winning the Senate many times over the next few decades. But that's for a different post.

 

Insightful, thank you. 

 

It's really crazy to me that roughly 21k people can completely change an election in a Country with over 250 million people of voting age. One of the reasons that ranked choice voting should get more traction. 

[Dr. Strangelove]

5 hours ago, teachercd said:

What you are saying totally makes sense but I think the biggest thing to ask is...

 

Does anyone know, personally know, a NEW Trump voter?  There are none.

 

The only way Biden gets beat is if the people that voted for him last time decide they are simply not going to vote this time, at all.

 

- Wisconsin by ~20,600 votes

- Arizona by ~10,500 votes

- Georgia by ~11,800 votes

 

So unless, in those states, that many people decide to just not vote and everyone who voted for Trump last time decides to vote for him again...there is nothing to worry about.

 

Why would you have voted for Joe last time and NOT vote for him this time?  

I suppose we could say "lazy" as in the voter might just not go vote, but that still won't be enough of them.

 

 

 

I personally know many examples of Trump voters!

 

I'd add that is not quite that simple. In a state like Wisconsin, for example, the demographics are shifting. In a hypothetical world where all voters in the state of Wisconsin vote the same, Biden probably loses the state. 

 

Why? Because many young people - college educated voters - leave Wisconsin to go to regional hubs like Chicago for work.  The number year-to-year isn't high, but in a razor thin election it's enough to change the balance. 

 

That same phenomenon is why states like Iowa and Ohio, once purple states, are solidly red. Wisconsin is likely to be similar in time, a state Democrats can no longer win. Biden has to battle this shift in an increasing electoral college bias to win. 

 

5 hours ago, DevoHusker said:

 

Insightful, thank you. 

 

It's really crazy to me that roughly 21k people can completely change an election in a Country with over 250 million people of voting age. One of the reasons that ranked choice voting should get more traction. 

I agree! 

 

Another thing to consider is really, Democrats are controlling the Presidency when the fundamentals of the Electoral College suggest they absolutely should not be.

 

Democrats are essentially winning while the GOP is squandering a massive advantage. Eventually, Texas is going to become a blue state (2032 or 2036), tilting the Electoral College bias back in favor of Democrats. 

[teachercd]

11 minutes ago, Dr. Strangelove said:

I personally know many examples of Trump voters!

 

I'd add that is not quite that simple. In a state like Wisconsin, for example, the demographics are shifting. In a hypothetical world where all voters in the state of Wisconsin vote the same, Biden probably loses the state. 

 

Why? Because many young people - college educated voters - leave Wisconsin to go to regional hubs like Chicago for work.  The number year-to-year isn't high, but in a razor thin election it's enough to change the balance. 

 

That same phenomenon is why states like Iowa and Ohio, once purple states, are solidly red. Wisconsin is likely to be similar in time, a state Democrats can no longer win. Biden has to battle this shift in an increasing electoral college bias to win. 

 

I agree! 

 

Another thing to consider is really, Democrats are controlling the Presidency when the fundamentals of the Electoral College suggest they absolutely should not be.

 

Democrats are essentially winning while the GOP is squandering a massive advantage. Eventually, Texas is going to become a blue state (2032 or 2036), tilting the Electoral College bias back in favor of Democrats. 

Work from home...no one is leaving anymore and if they are...they are not going to Chicago.  Wisconsin natives hate the city of big huge giant dongs (or broad shoulders)

 

And, do you know NEW trump voters?  not Joe haters...NEW Trump voters.  There is a difference. 

[DevoHusker]

Should it again come down to Biden v Trump the worst part, for me, is that for the 3rd Presidential election in a row, I will not have a candidate that I would WANT to vote for.

[TGHusker]

11 hours ago, DevoHusker said:

Should it again come down to Biden v Trump the worst part, for me, is that for the 3rd Presidential election in a row, I will not have a candidate that I would WANT to vote for.

I agree

 

[funhusker]

12 hours ago, DevoHusker said:

Should it again come down to Biden v Trump the worst part, for me, is that for the 3rd Presidential election in a row, I will not have a candidate that I would WANT to vote for.

Until ranked choice happens (it won't...), holding our noses and voting for the better of two unideal choices is probably our new normal.

 

God sure did bless this place...

[TGHusker]

40 minutes ago, funhusker said:

Until ranked choice happens (it won't...), holding our noses and voting for the better of two unideal choices is probably our new normal.

 

God sure did bless this place...

Still beats most of the other countries in the world.  But yes, we can do much, much better.    I too wish ranked voting was the thing but as long as the parties are just looking after their own interests, we won't see it.