The 2024 Presidential Election- The LONG General Election

[Dr. Strangelove]

2 hours ago, Archy1221 said:

And now The Big Guy has the power of the incumbency, which Trump had and still lost.  You yourself, said that was a huge advantage.  

The incumbency is an advantage and I never said it was a huge advantage. It's a diminishing advantage but an advantage nonetheless. It's why Democrats would be stupid to nominate somebody else as their nominee, with a razor thin election, a .25% incumbency bump is the difference between winning and losing.

 

2 hours ago, Archy1221 said:

Add in the wacko stuff Trump has said since Jan 2021 and it should be an easy landslide for the incumbent.  We might be talking an 8 point victory in popular vote totals. 

Wacko stuff Trump has said didn't deter voters from voting for him in 2016 or 2020. Republican voters aren't going to suddenly realize they're voting for an idiot. They're going to show up and vote for him again in 2024. You seem caught into thinking that Trump only became deranged and said insane things after losing in 2020, he hasn't. You just ignored it to justify voting for him.

 

Winning a popular vote by 8% isn't possible. Voters don't change their minds nor do they vote based on reality. A main point is you referring to Biden as "The Big Guy" because you believe, without evidence, that President Biden is as corrupt in order to justify voting for obviously bad candidates. You also believe, against mountains of evidence, that economic performance is bad. You aren't the only one who bases their voting behavior on what they want to be true vs what is actually true. 

 

2 hours ago, Archy1221 said:

Yet you don’t talk about states that have drifted left like Arizona and VA, or even more left like Colorado where Dems hardly have to spend resources anymore to win statewide?  That stuff matters. 

Firstly, Virginia and Colorado are not competitive swing states. They are countered by Iowa, Ohio and Florida becoming reliably Republican. Secondly, incorrect. I stated this:

 

10 hours ago, Dr. Strangelove said:

Swing states like Wisconsin, Michigan, Nevada and Pennsylvania are slowly become more and more Republican. Educated voters in those states (Democrats) often move (to places like Texas, Atlanta, or Phoenix). That leaves their populations slightly more Republican then the previous election which means that Republican candidates have a better chance to win them.

 

Democrats are caught in a time where swing states are turning Red faster than demographic shifts are making other states Blue. Eventually, those demographic shifts will slightly favor Democrats but that's in a decade. Right now, they have to fight an uphill battle. It's why traditional Republican candidates like Mitt Romney would EASILY win any election held between 2016-2032, the fundamentals massively favor Republicans at the moment. 

Democrats are turning other states blue: namely Texas, Arizona and Georgia. The issue for Democrats is that they're losing ground in states faster than they're gaining ground in other states. Eventually Arizona, Georgia, and Texas will be reliably blue states. But at the moment, Republicans have a better chance at flipping Wisconsin, Nevada, Michigan and Pennsylvania than Democrats do of flipping Texas. By the 2030s, that will change. But until Texas is a true swing state, Republicans have a massive electoral college advantage.

 

Republicans have shot themselves in the foot by hitching their wagon to Trump. They should be winning elections easily but they can't help themselves from nominating terrible candidates.

[BigRedBuster]

Oh….so now Republicans are cheating. 
 

 

[BigRedBuster]

 

[Archy1221]

12 hours ago, Dr. Strangelove said:

The country is split between uneducated-Rural voters and educated-Urban voters.

This is probably the biggest fallacy often repeated.    Just because one does not attend or finish college DOES NOT MAKE THEM UNEDUCATED.    And there are plenty of college educated, advanced degree educated rural voters.  Good lord 

[Archy1221]

12 hours ago, Dr. Strangelove said:

Educated voters in those states (Democrats) often move (to places like Texas, Atlanta, or Phoenix). That leaves their populations slightly more Republican then the previous election which means that Republican candidates have a better chance to win them.

Hmmmm…..by that logic, TX, GA, and AZ become more Democrat and Democrat candidates have a better chance to win them. 

[Archy1221]

1 hour ago, Dr. Strangelove said:

Voters don't change their minds nor do they vote based on reality

You are saying there was no Obama—Trump voters in 2016?   You are saying there are zero voters who vote from Dem to R or vice versa?   

[Archy1221]

1 hour ago, Dr. Strangelove said:

You also believe, against mountains of evidence, that economic performance is bad.

I believe, with mountains of evidence that purchasing power has been eroded over the course of these three years.  You choose to not believe that despite mountains of evidence. 

[Archy1221]

1 hour ago, Dr. Strangelove said:

But until Texas is a true swing state, Republicans have a massive electoral college advantage

The amount of electoral college votes that Dems get without having to spend a single penny on to get is massive compared to Republicans which is a huge electoral advantage in a system where money tends to win elections. 

[teachercd]

1 hour ago, BigRedBuster said:

Oh….so now Republicans are cheating. 
 

 

Dude KNOWS he is toast.  Even he has figured out that it is over and honestly, this sort of "Preemptive crying" wears very thin.  The Boy who Cried Wolf.  

 

We know how it ends.

[teachercd]

28 minutes ago, Archy1221 said:

This is probably the biggest fallacy often repeated.    Just because one does not attend or finish college DOES NOT MAKE THEM UNEDUCATED.    And there are plenty of college educated, advanced degree educated rural voters.  Good lord 

Yeah

 

If someone gets a vacation for calling commies commies, if you can get a vacation for saying Hillary looks like a dude...then this falls under that umbrella as well.

 

This weird idea that if you live in a rural area you are a dumb a$$ MF'er is not fair.  And if you live a big city you are this brilliant know-it-all, is not fair and it is not right.

 

It sounds very elitist.

[BigRedBuster]

6 minutes ago, teachercd said:

Dude KNOWS he is toast.  Even he has figured out that it is over and honestly, this sort of "Preemptive crying" wears very thin.  The Boy who Cried Wolf.  

 

We know how it ends.

He’s done this before every election.  

[teachercd]

Just now, BigRedBuster said:

He’s done this before every election.  

I honestly don't remember it until near the end of his term but you are probably right.  I just don't remember him crying wolf in 16, but I don't remember much from that far back.

[commando]

22 minutes ago, teachercd said:

I honestly don't remember it until near the end of his term but you are probably right.  I just don't remember him crying wolf in 16, but I don't remember much from that far back.

he said Cruz was cheating when cruz  won the iowa primary.  then he said that Cruz should be banned from ballots for that "cheating"

[teachercd]

3 minutes ago, commando said:

he said Cruz was cheating when cruz  won the iowa primary.  then he said that Cruz should be banned from ballots for that "cheating"

Dude is such a pu&&y.

[Guy Chamberlin]

4 hours ago, Archy1221 said:

And now The Big Guy has the power of the incumbency, which Trump had and still lost.  You yourself, said that was a huge advantage.  
 

Add in the wacko stuff Trump has said since Jan 2021 and it should be an easy landslide for the incumbent.  We might be talking an 8 point victory in popular vote totals. 
 

 

I don't think you believe this. You clearly know Trump's extremism was blatant and bats#!t the first two times you voted for him, and even in that 2020 loss Trump got 10 million more votes than he did in 2016. As mentioned, the vote differential in electoral swing states was tiny in 2020, and for some reason partisans like yourself are undercutting Biden's surprisingly healthy economy and going all-in on his son Hunter, putting huge dents in Joe's electability. 

 

Given the chance to rally around a non-Trump candidate, Republicans have done just the opposite. Donald Trump has actually used the multiple legal cases against him, including straight up treason, to successfully fundraise while boasting both a general election lead on Biden, and leads in key swing states. The "wacko" stuff of which you speak hasn't hurt him a lick. He's now quoting Hitler directly and promising to be Day One Dictator. You'd think that would finally be over the line. But it's not. Check the numbers. 

 

Is it early? Well it's not too early to be scared as f#&% for America. Claiming Biden should win easily is a bulls#!t prediction by someone pretending he's not on the wrong side of history.