If the Election was Today

[cm husker]

How would you vote?

 

I'm curious to see the numbers on the board and if they change in 3 weeks.

[Moiraine]

Clinton.

 

And I've actually been called by her campaign twice. Gonna tell them to stop next time.

If I didn't live in Nebraska's District 2 I'd vote for Stein as a protest vote.

[BIGREDIOWAN]

No one and I doubt I change my mind by the time November rolls around.

[mrandyk]

No one and I doubt I change my mind by the time November rolls around.

Then vote independent or third party to show your distaste for the institutions that have let you down.

[zoogs]

It's sort of scary to me how much this is still a contest. I'd like to say I'm encouraged by 538's growing confidence, but as Nate Silver himself would admit, 80% isn't that good. That's 1-in-5 odds it goes the other way. Tossing a coin and getting two heads in a row is about 5% more likely.

 

These are all states where 538 polling is within around 3% or less:

AZ (11)

NC (15)

OH (18)

IA (6)

FL (29)

NV (6)

 

There's 85 electoral votes here. This doesn't include PA (20), VA (13), or CO (9) which have all run within a few percentage points recently. PA, in particular, is generally regarded a swing state. And it's the target of Trump's most aggressive calls for poll-watching. In order for this landslide victory to occur, Hillary must secure states like these.

 

If the Anti-Trump force is effective at the polls, this will happen. That is FAR from a sure thing. Trump may not have a traditional ground game that can outmuscle Hillary's, but he's told people this is their last chance to stop their country from being destroyed. I've no doubt his troops will engage in some sort of attempted voter intimidation -- these people respect norms as much as he does -- the question is on what scale and how much it might depress opposition turnout.

 

I wouldn't for a moment underestimate the power of frenzied, existential fear. I'm seeing far too much ambivalence on the other side -- e.g, "I'd prefer if Hillary won by a tighter margin", the same thing some truly regretful Brexit voters opined to universal disbelief after that shocking result -- and overconfidence from current opinion polling, to feel too good about this yet. Trump is starting from a base of about 180 pretty darn safe electoral votes. Yes, he can be defeated, maybe even resolutely, but only if an organized and determined effort occurs at the polls, and not just in voicing-our-opinions land.

[MLB 51]

 

No one and I doubt I change my mind by the time November rolls around.

Then vote independent or third party to show your distaste for the institutions that have let you down.

 

What if they have all let us down?

[BigRedBuster]

 

 

No one and I doubt I change my mind by the time November rolls around.

Then vote independent or third party to show your distaste for the institutions that have let you down.

Naaaa....Johnson has proven to be a little loony toon.

 

It's voting for nobody now for me.

[Moiraine]

 

 

No one and I doubt I change my mind by the time November rolls around.

Then vote independent or third party to show your distaste for the institutions that have let you down.

Naaaa....Johnson has proven to be a little loony toon.

 

It's voting for nobody now for me.

 

 

 

 

The funny thing is he's probably still less incapable than Trump.

[zoogs]

Even if Johnson is not qualified, he has some basic sanity to him. But, I agree -- it's the same as abstaining at that point.

[Dbqgolfer]

It's Evan McMullin for me.

[BIGREDIOWAN]

 

 

No one and I doubt I change my mind by the time November rolls around.

Then vote independent or third party to show your distaste for the institutions that have let you down.

Naaaa....Johnson has proven to be a little loony toon.

 

It's voting for nobody now for me.

 

Agreed, he's a weirdo..........

[commando]

Micky Mouse!!!

[mrandyk]

 

 

No one and I doubt I change my mind by the time November rolls around.

Then vote independent or third party to show your distaste for the institutions that have let you down.

Naaaa....Johnson has proven to be a little loony toon.

 

It's voting for nobody now for me.

 

Pick a different candidate then, there are more than three.

[BIGREDIOWAN]

 

 

 

No one and I doubt I change my mind by the time November rolls around.

Then vote independent or third party to show your distaste for the institutions that have let you down.

Naaaa....Johnson has proven to be a little loony toon.

 

It's voting for nobody now for me.

 

Pick a different candidate then, there are more than three.

 

Why do we have to? If we don't want to vote for president then we don't have to. I'm not voting for a non-viable candidate, that's throwing a vote away to me just like not voting is. So, I'll not vote for president and feel good about myself for it.

[mrandyk]

 

 

 

 

No one and I doubt I change my mind by the time November rolls around.

Then vote independent or third party to show your distaste for the institutions that have let you down.

Naaaa....Johnson has proven to be a little loony toon.

 

It's voting for nobody now for me.

 

Pick a different candidate then, there are more than three.

 

Why do we have to? If we don't want to vote for president then we don't have to. I'm not voting for a non-viable candidate, that's throwing a vote away to me just like not voting is. So, I'll not vote for president and feel good about myself for it.

 

Low voter turnout does less to de-emphasize the two-party system than voting for a candidate outside that system. If this system has failed you then do something to vocalize it.