Does NU have a chance in the B1G West?

[Enhance]

2 hours ago, ECisGod said:

I don't follow recruiting that closely, but based on final rankings, NU has had to have plenty of 4-star recruits and a few 5-stars.  The problem is they have either been overrated out of HS, or haven't been developed by previous staffs. 

IMO you're right in some situations about the player either being a) poorly evaluated and/or b) under developed, but another big problem is just talent retention. Another phrase I like to use is the "roster boss." It's not a problem specific to Nebraska, either. It's pretty much a universal issue that's been happening for awhile but got worse once the transfer portal became a thing.

Basically, if we go back and look at some of Nebraska's recruiting classes from the last 5-10 years, it's eye-opening just how many players either didn't make a significant impact and/or transferred out of the program. Obviously attrition is going to happen but they just seem to have way more misses than hits.

[ECisGod]

1 hour ago, Enhance said:

IMO you're right in some situations about the player either being a) poorly evaluated and/or b) under developed, but another big problem is just talent retention. Another phrase I like to use is the "roster boss." It's not a problem specific to Nebraska, either. It's pretty much a universal issue that's been happening for awhile but got worse once the transfer portal became a thing.

Basically, if we go back and look at some of Nebraska's recruiting classes from the last 5-10 years, it's eye-opening just how many players either didn't make a significant impact and/or transferred out of the program. Obviously attrition is going to happen but they just seem to have way more misses than hits.

I think roster churn has a lot to do with players thinking they deserve to play right away when they don't.  They've never been on a team where they weren't one of the best players and they don't know how to handle it when they get to college, so if they aren't starting (or at least playing a lot) so they enter the portal.  The worst part is that there are hundreds of players who go into the portal and nobody wants them.  Now they've given up a free ride to college and their athletic dreams because they couldn't be patient.

 

It's even worse in basketball because a lot of players play for a different AAU and/or HS team every year searching for a team that will give them guaranteed playing time or more exposure and that attitude carries over to college.

[Red Five]

 

 

[Archy1221]

2 hours ago, Dr. Strangelove said:

3 hours ago, Undone said:

I put "develop" in quotations because it's an over used phrase that literally 50 teams across the country try and do. They all recruit low rated 3* players and coaches at 50 P5 schools believe they will develop them into being solid players, but it happens very few times and it's extremely difficult to pull off and sustain. The ability to develop 3* players into All-Conference caliber players is extremely difficult and the ability of Strength and Conditioning to make up the talent gap is greatly overstated by fans.

I’m sorry but this list makes no sense.   Do you really believe that all 50 of those coaches say to themselves “well forget those top 300 rates guys, we only want the 1250-600 rated guys on this team because we can develop them!”   
 

No, those teams recruit those players because that’s who they can get at the time, or portal kids that didn’t work out with their initial team.   If the teams in question win and get more notoriety, the recruiting hopefully gets better.  

[olddominionhusker]

On 9/18/2023 at 6:18 PM, Enhance said:

Despite the 1-2 start and the loss of Ervin/Johnson, I still feel like Nebraska is probably a fringe bowl team which is where I had them pre-season. I think 6-6 is a reasonable best case scenario, but 4-8 or 5-7 is feeling more like the appropriate landing spot now.

Looking at their remaining schedule, this is how I feel at the moment:

• La Tech: W
• Michigan: L
• Illinois: Coin Flip
• Northwestern: W
• Purdue: Coin Flip
• Michigan St.: W
• Maryland: Coin Flip (this is a tough one because they're undefeated but have played three inferior and/or bad teams)
• Wisconsin: L
• Iowa: L

So, that's three more W's I feel fairly confident about, three games that I think are coin flips, and three L's that I'm just expecting based off of precedent. I'm not necessarily married to some of those coin flips and L's at the moment and they will assuredly fluctuate on a week-to-week basis now.

I tend to agree with you but I’m not conceding Wisconsin or especially Iowa at this point. The gap between us and them is certainly no worse than last year when we beat Iowaand hung with Wisc and if anything has narrowed. I think we can have a decent shot in both of those games and wouldn’t put them in the loss column yet. I’m actually more concerned about Maryland than those two because they have been explosive albeit against worse teams. I think on paper at least Illinois is a W but there is the Bielma factor to consider there. Dude just has our number unfortunately

[olddominionhusker]

Probably won’t happen but a change in building the team from high school recruiting to portal recruiting needs to happen. Deion is right. This is free agency. Why take a chance on a high school kid when you can go after kids who have proven the ability to play at this level. Colorado is low in those recruiting ratings because they are going to just load up on transfer game ready players as Deion has already said. It’s just a much safer strategy as is evidence by a lot of our 4 and 5 star gets that ended up being garbage. The question is can you land the portal kids when you don’t have the buzz of Deion or a top 5 program. Probably not entirely but we need to switch the balance somewhat toward transfers going forward

 

The portal has real potential for teams like Nebraska because kids want to play NOW. Why sit at Georgia if you can play right away at Nebraska? 

[Archy1221]

17 minutes ago, olddominionhusker said:

I tend to agree with you but I’m not conceding Wisconsin or especially Iowa at this point. The gap between us and them is certainly no worse than last year when we beat Iowaand hung with Wisc and if anything has narrowed. I think we can have a decent shot in both of those games and wouldn’t put them in the loss column yet. I’m actually more concerned about Maryland than those two because they have been explosive albeit against worse teams. I think on paper at least Illinois is a W but there is the Bielma factor to consider there. Dude just has our number unfortunately

I think you are spot on here.  Maryland has a good QB and has looked solid.    Joe and Wisconsin can both be taken down on a day our defense plays very solid and the offense plays turnover free 

[Dr. Strangelove]

1 hour ago, Archy1221 said:

I’m sorry but this list makes no sense.   Do you really believe that all 50 of those coaches say to themselves “well forget those top 300 rates guys, we only want the 1250-600 rated guys on this team because we can develop them!”   
 

No, those teams recruit those players because that’s who they can get at the time, or portal kids that didn’t work out with their initial team.   If the teams in question win and get more notoriety, the recruiting hopefully gets better.  

This is sort of semantics. All coaches wish they had top players, but they all also realize the limitations of their school and geography. It's why coaches leave places where it's hard to recruit. The top 15 programs hoard the vast majority of the Blue Chip players, leaving very little for the bottom 50 to fight over. 

 

It's not that those coaches ignore those players, they simply don't have the ability to land them. So, the beat writers at those schools, the fan bases on the message boards, the administration's in their Athletic Department all tout the ability of their programs to "develop" players because it's the only thing they really can do out of necessity. It's why Trev Albert's and Rhule talk about it all the time. 

[Number1Rhule]

5 hours ago, Enhance said:

IMO you're right in some situations about the player either being a) poorly evaluated and/or b) under developed, but another big problem is just talent retention. Another phrase I like to use is the "roster boss." It's not a problem specific to Nebraska, either. It's pretty much a universal issue that's been happening for awhile but got worse once the transfer portal became a thing.

Basically, if we go back and look at some of Nebraska's recruiting classes from the last 5-10 years, it's eye-opening just how many players either didn't make a significant impact and/or transferred out of the program. Obviously attrition is going to happen but they just seem to have way more misses than hits.

Unfortunately the O-line stuck around

[Number1Rhule]

3 hours ago, olddominionhusker said:

Probably won’t happen but a change in building the team from high school recruiting to portal recruiting needs to happen. Deion is right. This is free agency. Why take a chance on a high school kid when you can go after kids who have proven the ability to play at this level. Colorado is low in those recruiting ratings because they are going to just load up on transfer game ready players as Deion has already said. It’s just a much safer strategy as is evidence by a lot of our 4 and 5 star gets that ended up being garbage. The question is can you land the portal kids when you don’t have the buzz of Deion or a top 5 program. Probably not entirely but we need to switch the balance somewhat toward transfers going forward

 

The portal has real potential for teams like Nebraska because kids want to play NOW. Why sit at Georgia if you can play right away at Nebraska? 

How are we going to beat a program like Georgia with their leftovers? We have to get the 5 star can’t miss players and that won’t happen until we are winners through development, slowly building up to top recruits like Georgia.

[olddominionhusker]

59 minutes ago, Number1Rhule said:

How are we going to beat a program like Georgia with their leftovers? We have to get the 5 star can’t miss players and that won’t happen until we are winners through development, slowly building up to top recruits like Georgia.

Because they have a lot of players who don’t want to sit behind other good players some

of whom are 4 and 5 star players. That’s why Justin Fields left Georgia for example.

So maybe you won’t beat Georgia. But you will beat a lot of Big 10 teams that have been pushing you around for 10 years. Then you start recruiting better. Step 1 is not competing with Georgia and Bama. It’s beating Iowa, Wisconsin, and other BIG teams that have been owning you. Move up from that to Penn St etc.

Building a program without using the portal in the current environment is willfully ignorant. I’m not saying you go the full Coach Prime route. That won’t work. We don’t have that draw. But you have to use it as best you can

[Number1Rhule]

4 minutes ago, olddominionhusker said:

Because they have a lot of players who don’t want to sit behind other good players some

of whom are 4 and 5 star players. That’s why Justin Fields left Georgia for example. Building a program without using the portal in the current environment is willfully ignorant. I’m not saying you go the full Coach Prime route. That’s won’t work. We don’t have that draw. But you have to use it as best you can

We just have to win more each year and more high school and college transfers will want to come play here. Right now we just can’t compete in the transfer market like the top teams. Best QB in portal we could get is a bad QB, and drove a better one out. Deion has legend status as an Hall of Famer. We have Matt Rhule because we have to have a builder coach, as we don’t attract big time players. Same as Kansas and Kansas St have had to do it, and many others.

[Hooked on Huskers]

And bowl eligible.

 

The critical schedule, NU at Illinois.  And then NW, and Purdue, and MSU, and Terps, and Wisky, and Iowa .....

[huskerfan74]

Nope. Not with this offense…

[BigRedBuster]

17 hours ago, Dr. Strangelove said:

I put "develop" in quotations because it's an over used phrase that literally 50 teams across the country try and do. They all recruit low rated 3* players and coaches at 50 P5 schools believe they will develop them into being solid players, but it happens very few times and it's extremely difficult to pull off and sustain. The ability to develop 3* players into All-Conference caliber players is extremely difficult and the ability of Strength and Conditioning to make up the talent gap is greatly overstated by fans.

 

It's also hard to tell how good programs are at development and if they do anything special to help their players. Mo Ibrahim was a really good player and was not properly rated - but was it because PJ Fleck "developed" him or was Ibrahim already a good player and just didn't go to camps in high school/went to a small high school/or grew into his body a little later than other highly ranked players? Similarly, Matt Campbell got lucky and found Brock Purdy; is Matt Campbell good at developing him or did he just get lucky and find a really good player?

 

At the end of the day, good coaches are going to recognize what players they have and try to put them in the best spots to succeed. Scott Frost was bad at this, while PJ Fleck, Kirk Ferents, etc. are good at this. But those coaches still don't have any talent to work with and it's important to understand that no amount of weight lifting, nutrition, recovery programs, etc. are going to make Iowa/Wisconsin/etc. receivers as good as what Ohio State plucks out of high school. It's why they go get the doors blown off them when they play each other most of the time.

Nobody sets out as a coaching staff and says….hey, we don’t want 4-5 star players. We want 3 star players and develop them into great players. 
 

Fact is, there are 130+ FBS teams and there are a limited number of 4-5 star players. Those players go to a few top programs.  The rest are left trying to develop the 3 star players.