Sipple: 8-4 reasonable

[huskernumerouno]

Steven M. Sipple: Eight wins is reasonable expectation for Huskers

He traveled the state in recent weeks meeting and greeting Nebraska fans, spreading good will and connecting with the football-starved masses.

 

But Bo Pelini didn’t actively attempt to gauge fans’ expectations for his team in 2008. Fan expectations are not his concern, he says. He wants to help fans understand what he’s trying to accomplish in his program. He wants fans to be proud of the program. He wants to create optimism and excitement.

 

As for measuring expectations, “I really can’t worry about that,” Pelini says flatly.

 

 

 

As for his own expectations, “I want to win them all,” he again says flatly.

 

That, of course, is the essence of Pelini. He’s confident, blunt and brutally honest. It’s refreshing and concerning all at once. It’s not always so much what he says as how he says it. But you get the feeling the first-year head coach believes at his core Nebraska really can “win them all,” no matter how preposterous an undefeated season sounds when discussing a team that finished 5-7 last season. Indeed, the Huskers played a level of defense that Big Red fans now avoid discussing as if it were a deep, dark family secret.

 

Predictions are hokey and meaningless and generally mindless. Predictions typically contain as much nutritional value as a batch of cotton candy. But those shiny preseason magazines, the ones containing predictions that help create fan expectations, have hit the newsstands.

 

Far be it for me to be above mindless predictions. So, here goes:

 

I’m solidly in the camp that says Nebraska will finish 8-4. I’m guessing the Huskers will wind up 4-4 in the Big 12, which last season would have been good for third in the North and South divisions. Given last season’s ugliness, I’m guessing Big Red fans could live happily with 8-4 and 4-4.

 

Nine wins and three losses probably would be a best-case scenario.

 

Seven and five would be acceptable.

 

Six and six would be a prelude to a brutally long winter of carping around water coolers.

 

Bottom line is, Nebraska fans want to see the Huskers be competitive in every game. Maybe that’s the most important thing — avoiding embarrassment. Big Red rolled over too many times last season. Rolling over is simply unacceptable unless you’re my dog Stitches.

 

The feeling I get is fans mostly want to see Nebraska show marked improvement in 2008 and get to a decent bowl game. Doing so would establish a nice foundation.

 

We broach the “expectations” discussion largely because of those glossy preseason magazines. Lindy’s and Athlon predict Nebraska will finish fourth in the Big 12 North. Phil Steele picks the Huskers to finish second in the division behind Missouri. However, Steele’s credibility diminishes greatly because he ranks NU’s defensive line among the top four in the league.

 

At any rate, offseason predictions and expectations for Nebraska seem surprisingly reasonable.

 

Bo ought to thank Bill for that.

 

The Nebraska program, under Bill Callahan, dipped to levels last season that Big Red fans couldn’t have imagined, even after finishes of 7-7 in 2002 and 5-6 in 2004. NU allowed Kansas to score 10 touchdowns last November. In 1996 — all of 1996 — the Huskers allowed seven touchdowns.

 

That’s why Nebraska’s first few games next season will be critical. You have to believe the Huskers’ confidence on defense is somewhat fragile. Pelini’s trademark swagger will help matters greatly. His confidence permeates the program. But his defenders need to see results on the field or else it might be, “Here we go again.”

 

Every bit of Pelini’s defensive know-how will be necessary in the nation’s highest-scoring league. Even Pelini admits he was “a little blown away” upon seeing the numbers Big 12 teams have been putting up.

 

Nebraska’s offense should be excellent, but it isn’t without significant challenges. The greatest might be replacing big-play wide receiver Maurice Purify. Former NU offensive coordinator Jay Norvell told me recently the Huskers never would’ve reached the Big 12 Championship Game in 2006 without the 6-foot-4, 225-pound Purify. Norvell always emphasized the value of having a game-changing receiver in a West Coast offense. Can NU recruit or develop a receiver to make plays like Purify did on third down and in the red zone?

 

The days of going 49-2 in a four-season stretch, as Nebraska did from 1994-97, seem increasingly unlikely considering the changing landscape in the college game. That’s a column for another day. For now, Big Red fans hold tightly to the belief that they soon will enjoy the lofty level of preseason expectations that exist nowadays at schools such as Southern Cal, Oklahoma and Louisiana State.

 

Of course, Pelini embraces such expectations, even if such expectations aren’t necessarily reasonable at Nebraska right now. If you listen to Pelini, you can’t help but believe such expectations at dear old NU will become reasonable soon enough.

 

“If they’re not reasonable, I don’t want to be here,” he says, confident as always.

[BIGREDIOWAN]

I think 8-4 would be very acceptable after last season and that is my prediction for our season. If we go 9-3 that's just icing on the cake. If we win them all I'm going to shave my head and run outside in a thong!!!!

[junior4949]

I find it odd though he's predicting 8-4 with a 4-4 record in the Big 12. One could easily assume if we're predicting that we lose to Va Tech. While Va Tech wouldn't win the Big 12 if they were in our conference, they would probably have a better record than 4-4 within the conference playing our schedule. Maybe Va Tech is worse than I think.

[Igetbored216]

With Mr. Sipple's "8-4 overall and 4-4 in the Big 12" reasonable prediction, he's predicting a W against VT.

 

I would definitely like to see a 4-0 start! Who's with me?

[Bleeding Husker Red]

I think 8-4 would be very acceptable after last season and that is my prediction for our season. If we go 9-3 that's just icing on the cake. If we win them all I'm going to shave my head and run outside in a thong!!!!

 

 

ungh... now that's an image I didn't need....

[Hunter94]

i said 8 weeks ago, 7-5 or 8-4.......that is a very reasonable recovery from the hell of last season. we were not even on the field in some of our games. to expect to be better than that is a long shot....a signature win should also come in 2009....patience folks, patience.

[BIGREDFAN_in_OMAHA]

i said 8 weeks ago, 7-5 or 8-4.......that is a very reasonable recovery from the hell of last season. we were not even on the field in some of our games. to expect to be better than that is a long shot....a signature win should also come in 2009....patience folks, patience.

[jayhawk]

I would say 8-4 is rather optimistic. Bo has done great to take a losing team in his first year and go 8-4. Kudos to him if he can do it. That is hard to do.

 

As I am a nerd, I check to see how many coaches won a higher percentage of their games than their predecessors in the 90s or 00's when there was a Big 12 North coaching change... I did not count interim coaches, See results below...

 

Nebraska 3 Changes, 0 Improved over prior coach

CU 3 Changes, 0 Improved over prior coach

KU 2 Changes, 1 Improved over prior coach (KU went from 4-7 to 5-6 once)

K-State 1 Changes, 1 Improved over prior coach (KSU went from 5-6 to 7-6 once)

Iowa State 2 Changes, 1 Improved over prior coach (ISU went from 0-10 to 3-8 once)

Mizzou 2 Changes, 1 Improved over prior coach (MU went from 3-8 to 4-7 once)

 

Not saying it never happens, I think I have predicted you will improve, but I am just saying be fair to the guy. Irnoically, over the 4 improvements above, none of he teams improved in a big way. Maybe the North is not a great sample, I know Texas got better after each change, for instance, and actually got good under Mack Brown, and if your talent pool is deep, which it may be, could happen here. Just sayin be a little realistic, you were not very good last year by most standards, and awful by husker standards. 2 of the 4 BC teams were the worst since 1961. So we will see, and best wishes minus one game (and any others if by some miracle you come ALL the way back right away and we need you to lose).

[junior4949]

A lot of people want to compare what we're going through to OU. I guess I can see some parallels other than NCAA probation and sanctions. Gary Gibbs could be compared to Solich in a way. Gibbs for the most part was a pretty good football coach dealt with a pretty bad hand. He like Solich followed a living legend. Even though OU was on probation and sanctions, Gibbs did manage a 44-23-2 record in six years. IMO, this was pretty darned good considering how the deck was stacked against him. Solich also followed a living legend, and it isn't like he fell on his face by any means. We played for the NC once under Solich in his 6 years, and we finished I believe 2nd in the polls in '99. Both coaches were let go even though there were some/many fans that thought they were teminated prematurely.

 

Next, OU gets Blake and NU gets BC. While both coaches seemed to recruit fairly well, this rarely if ever translated to any results on the field. While Blake had a considerably worse coaching record than BC at 12-22, they both are similar in how that performance is gauged at their respective schools. Blake's record was the worst 3 year period in Sooner football while BC's was the worst since the early 60's at NU.

 

Finally, in walks Bob Stoops at OU and Pelini at NU. Neither coach had any head coaching experience before being handed the keys to the prestigious football programs. Both coaches hail from the state of Ohio. Both coaches have prestigious defensive backgrounds where Stoops built some of the best defenses at KState and Florida while Pelini built some of the greatest defenses at NU, OU, and LSU. One difference between the two would be Pelini spent some time in the NFL. Whether this is to advantage or not remains to be seen, but he has had a top 4 defense in each of the past 4 seasons. Even though Stoops is regarded as "godlike" in Norman, he didn't walk on water his first year. However, he did take the Sooners to their first bowl game in 4 years and squeaked out 7 wins. NU's drought from a bowl hasn't been 4 years, but we are coming off of a terrible season. The year before Stoops showed up, OU had a 5-6 record. Last year, we had a 5-7 record.

 

After all of this rambling, I guess what I'm saying is that I 1) do hope we have OU like success under Pelini and 2) do hope we win 7 games and become bowl eligible. I don't expect Pelini to walk on water this first year. Hopefully, BC was able to lay the kind of foundation of players that Blake did for Pelini to have success.

[skersfan]

The only comment I have on that is, when Blake was fired, most felt who ever got the Oklahoma job had the talent to compete with anyone. Most felt there was NC talent on the team.

 

Unfortunately Bo does not have those comments, much less the talent.

 

This is going to be a tough two or three years I am afraid. And I agree with Jayhawk, too hight of fan expectations is not good for the team. I only want to see a team that is prepared and does not quit for any reason. I saw way too much of that last year to last me the rest of my life. I still think we will see a lot of new kids playing this fall, the ones with heart, dedication, loyalty and desire. Bo will find the ones that want to play, and they will be on the field. If he does that and I see effort like a Nebraska team, I will be happy with the transition no matter the win loss results. This is not Devany/Osborne football. Much tougher to win the 9 games when you actually play 4 or 5 real teams every year, not 1.

 

This team needs our support, both coaches and players, no matter the win loss record. I think Bo will put a product on the field we can be proud of. If he does that, he has all the time he needs as far as I am concerned.

[Ohio Pete]

Oh man.

 

Coach #1: Legendary coach "retires" replaced by hand-picked assistant.

Coach #2: New coach does OK, but not good enough for crazy fan base.

Coach #3: Replaced by outsider/mercenary with great recruiting and crappy coaching. Eventually wears out welcome with one too many disappointing seasons.

Coach #4: Replaced by guy from Ohio who was also on Coach #2s staff. His first season is mediocre, maybe even a step backwards, His second season they win the National Championship.

 

#1: Woody Hayes

#2: Earl Bruce

#3: John "Hall of Fame" Cooper

#4: Jim Tressel

 

Write it up kids. Nebraska national championship 2009!

[Landlord]

How can you think that there isn't good talent on this team?

[skersfan]

I said it last year and I will say it this year. We do not have a player on this team that could start at any major/winning program, other than Lucky if he plays to potential this year. And several I would guess he would 3rd team.

 

BC recruited better than any before him, but he did not get the top talent. He got left overs/head cases and quitters. The ranks are still filled with those kids. Can Bo change thier attitudes and get them to fly right, we will not know until they actually play a game, that would be VaTech. If they get hammered in that game, you will see the same team that we saw last yar I am afraid. Quitters never win, winners never quit. Learned that in Jr High, still believe it to this day.

[Hunter94]

i agree, we are pretty short on top talent in a lot of positions. doesn't mean a difference coach attitude won't help, BUT you need the horses and the stable is far from loaded.......improvement? yes, miracles coming off a 5-7? no.......7-5 or 8-4.....once again, reality.

[Igetbored216]

I said it last year and I will say it this year. We do not have a player on this team that could start at any major/winning program, other than Lucky if he plays to potential this year. And several I would guess he would 3rd team.

 

BC recruited better than any before him, but he did not get the top talent. He got left overs/head cases and quitters. The ranks are still filled with those kids. Can Bo change thier attitudes and get them to fly right, we will not know until they actually play a game, that would be VaTech. If they get hammered in that game, you will see the same team that we saw last yar I am afraid. Quitters never win, winners never quit. Learned that in Jr High, still believe it to this day.

 

I take it you don't put much stock into what Rivals and other similar websites say?