Talent vs Coaching--Mike Riley & the Pac-12 vs Bo Pelini & the B1G

[It'sNotAFakeID]

There was a tremendous amount of fuss from Husker fans when Mike Riley was announced as Bo Pelini's replacement last Thursday. After all, Bo Pelini had won at least 9 games a year for the 7 years he was Nebraska's head coach, a feat accomplished just 4 times by Mike Riley in 14 seasons as head coach of Oregon State. In addition, Oregon State was just coming off a 5-7 season, something Husker fans haven't endured in 7 seasons. To most, this seems like a downgrade.

 

And it is a downgrade, if you're absolutely blind to the differences between Nebraska and Oregon State. Oregon State is located in the great city of Corvallis, a city that doesn't offer much in the way of entertainment, something that--believe it or not, Lincoln, Nebraska offers in abundance. Can anyone tell me the last time Jay-Z was in Corvallis, Oregon? Furthermore, Nebraska plays its games here:

 

 

in front of 91,000 fans. Oregon State plays their football here:

 

 

in front of 46,000 fans. Nebraska crowds nearly double the Oregon State crowds. That's a major recruiting pitch, along with the tradition and history of the program. And Riley can recruit. He's recruited Texas and California very well, two places Nebraska needs to regain its foothold. Now he gets to pitch the tradition and history of the program along with his other methods (whatever they may be).

 

Then he also takes these recruits and wins with them.

 

Here is a comparison of the results of the last 4 seasons between Nebraska and Oregon State. More talented team refers to having a higher 4 year average star rating total.

 

Nebraska:

 

When More Talented: 19-9 (68%)

Average Score when More Talented: 29-25

Average Star Advantage: 0.37

 

When Less Talented: 3-2 (60%)

Average Score when Less Talented: 28-32

Average Star Disadvantage: 0.28

 

 

Oregon State:

When More Talented: 5-1 (83%)

Average Score when More Talented: 38-23

Average Star Advantage: 0.21

 

When Less Talented 10-19 (34%)

Average Score when Less Talented: 28-31

Average Star Disadvantage: 0.38

 

 

Riley has won more and by a larger margin than Pelini in the last 4 years, despite having a smaller average talent advantage. He has also lost more, but by a slightly smaller margin. His average star disadvantage, however, was much higher than Pelini's the past 4 years. Now Riley comes to Nebraska, to lead a team who on most Saturdays, is talented than the team they line up against. Riley averaged about 2.5 wins a season against teams who were more talented than his, whereas Pelini averaged 2.25 losses against teams less talented than his. Considering that Nebraska was only the less talented team in 5 contests last season, I think we are in very good hands with Coach Riley.

[hskrfan4life]

Great read, thanks for putting that together!

[Kernal]

It will be interesting to see if Coach Riley can still get his team to overachieve when starting from a higher baseline and going into most games as the favorite. That's probably the million dollar question. I'm excited to see what happens and hope he succeeds.

[huskerscott]

Thank you putting this together.

[HuskerShark]

+1

 

That's great stuff. Just from watching Youtube videos of OSU games and seeing their schemes, then watching Nebraska games and seeing our lack of scheme (especially on offense), I really believe we could be in great hands. I'm going to stand for now on the side of being cautiously optimistic.

 

I also like the results we've had so far from Riley in recruiting. He is plugging away at it before the dead period, and several of the recruits that were a little wishy-washy have re-confirmed their commitment. If he gets that same result from the Davis twins (today?) I will be extremely happy.

[TGHusker]

I think we will be pleasantly surprised at seeing the difference between a 7 year 1st time HC who was still trying to figure in game adjustments and a long time HC who's seen about everything thrown his way. I think we will have an identity and that alone will be a big help along wt player development. His personality on the sidelines will take the pressure off of the players as well. Nothing like coming off of the sidelines to be trailed (stalked at times) by an angry HC. Seems to me some of the players had 'batter wife' syndrome in the way they defended Bo. Yes that is an exaggeration but I use to point out how the players played so hard not to make mistakes - and thus they kept making them. Bo couldn't explain why they could not "execute". I think Riley's personality on the sideline will make a big difference. Calm like Tom. Confidence doesn't come from hype, yelling, 'us against the world', but from being taught, developed, and prepared. I bet we see the difference in game one next fall.

[Count 'Bility]

Jay Foreman's commentary this morning about defensive philosophy of Bo versus what this new guy's may be, and how it affects our players and so on. Wow. Talk about makin a guy shake his head.

[StPaulHusker]

Jay Foreman's commentary this morning about defensive philosophy of Bo versus what this new guy's may be, and how it affects our players and so on. Wow. Talk about makin a guy shake his head.

Can you elaborate or post a link or something?

[NebraskaHarry]

My question is did you actually run a statistical analysis to determine significance. If you did, what analysis/model did you use? How did you separate the data for your variables? What did you set alpha at? etc.?

[Count 'Bility]

 

Jay Foreman's commentary this morning about defensive philosophy of Bo versus what this new guy's may be, and how it affects our players and so on. Wow. Talk about makin a guy shake his head.

Can you elaborate or post a link or something?

 

Yeah. I'm getting to it. it's quite a bit. Somethin came up at work and i had to hit post.

 

1620thezone podcasts.

 

But in general, he talked about the technical issues with Bo's defense causing way too much thinking and tentativeness. He doesnt like the perception that our defense is slow, cuz it isnt. But guys were not playing with any aggression or confidence. That this new guys ideal is to attack. penetrate, spill the runners outside, use the sideline as a 12th defender and guys in the back end can simply chase it down. The Gerry and Alexanders and the linebackers dont have to worry so much about technical fits as opposed to just getting there. Also about Bo's defense being too much about guys in the back level having to play from the guys in front of them, and when somethign happens and you get a Dlineman to linebacker overcompensating, you get the secondary way out of position. This is what happened in the Wisconsin game time and time again. he things the only downfall could be from a mental standpoint where the linebackers have to be ready to run and play with aggression. but that it wont be as difficult in this adjustment as it would be to go from an agressive style to a more passive style of D utilized under Bo.

 

I may have missed some things, and I may have got some thigns wrong. But generally this is what heard.

[teachercd]

Does anyone else think that their stadium looks really cool and that the orange really makes it pop?

 

Also...Jay Foreman follows me on twitter...#Boss

[BigRedBuster]

 

 

Jay Foreman's commentary this morning about defensive philosophy of Bo versus what this new guy's may be, and how it affects our players and so on. Wow. Talk about makin a guy shake his head.

Can you elaborate or post a link or something?

 

Yeah. I'm getting to it. it's quite a bit. Somethin came up at work and i had to hit post.

 

1620thezone podcasts.

 

But in general, he talked about the technical issues with Bo's defense causing way too much thinking and tentativeness. He doesnt like the perception that our defense is slow, cuz it isnt. But guys were not playing with any aggression or confidence. That this new guys ideal is to attack. penetrate, spill the runners outside, use the sideline as a 12th defender and guys in the back end can simply chase it down. The Gerry and Alexanders and the linebackers dont have to worry so much about technical fits as opposed to just getting there. Also about Bo's defense being too much about guys in the back level having to play from the guys in front of them, and when somethign happens and you get a Dlineman to linebacker overcompensating, you get the secondary way out of position. This is what happened in the Wisconsin game time and time again. he things the only downfall could be from a mental standpoint where the linebackers have to be ready to run and play with aggression. but that it wont be as difficult in this adjustment as it would be to go from an agressive style to a more passive style of D utilized under Bo.

 

I may have missed some things, and I may have got some thigns wrong. But generally this is what heard.

 

I heard most of this interview and it got me excited. This is what M Rose's dad was talking about in his tweets talking about "if I played for Nebraska" he would be excited to be turned loose to play aggressively.

[StPaulHusker]

Does anyone else think that their stadium looks really cool and that the orange really makes it pop?

 

Also...Jay Foreman follows me on twitter...#Boss

I wish I had more people follow me on twitter.

[teachercd]

 

Does anyone else think that their stadium looks really cool and that the orange really makes it pop?

 

Also...Jay Foreman follows me on twitter...#Boss

I wish I had more people follow me on twitter.

 

I think I have 170...but most of them are lame! ha

[It'sNotAFakeID]

My question is did you actually run a statistical analysis to determine significance. If you did, what analysis/model did you use? How did you separate the data for your variables? What did you set alpha at? etc.?

 

No statistical analysis, I had two projects (one was 118 pages the other 55 pages) that were due this past week, so I didn't bother looking at that. Though I would think anything above 0.15 would be significant--given that these are 4 year averages and the highest possible total is 5. Be my guest to look further and use more stringent measures.

 

The message of this thread is very clear: Bo did less with more talent comparatively and Riley did more with less talent comparatively, and here are their conference numbers the past 4 years.