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The General Election


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If Clinton wins Missouri this will be a route for her. I don't see her actually winning there and imagine Trump will win the state by 5 to 8 points. I really don't know what to make of the polls this year as there is greater variance than usual. Also it appears that online polling is showing different results than polls done just through telephone surveys. There's even one poll that has been all over the board and I would not count as being reliable anymore. The Reuters/IPSOS poll had Hillary up by double digits in June, then suddenly Trump was up by nearly double digits in July. They then changed their methodology and questions set and now Hillary is back up by a wider margin than any other poll.

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Starting to look like a blow out with those light blue swing states all moving towards Hillary.

 

I would be surprised if this margin holds steady until November. I have a feeling Trump is going to narrow it again. But do think that in the end Hillary will win by 5+ points and get over 300 EC votes.

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Starting to look like a blow out with those light blue swing states all moving towards Hillary.

 

I would be surprised if this margin holds steady until November. I have a feeling Trump is going to narrow it again. But do think that in the end Hillary will win by 5+ points and get over 300 EC votes.

 

I expect it to narrow some once the debates start. However, I still think Hillary wins by a large margin.

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I actually expect the debates to widen the gap, somewhat. In case anyone couldn't tell already, it's going to be an hour or two of Trump hurling the kitchen sink at Clinton, her giving it back, and hopefully some actual substance on the issues. I'm hopeful the majority of that will come from Clinton, because I don't know that Trump could remember and articulate many of his policies if he needed to, since they've pretty much been rewritten by his advisors several times over, but we'll see...

 

I'm personally waiting for the October surprises. I think both sides have a powder keg waiting. We'll have to see when they set it off.

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I actually expect the debates to widen the gap, somewhat. In case anyone couldn't tell already, it's going to be an hour or two of Trump hurling the kitchen sink at Clinton, her giving it back, and hopefully some actual substance on the issues. I'm hopeful the majority of that will come from Clinton, because I don't know that Trump could remember and articulate many of his policies if he needed to, since they've pretty much been rewritten by his advisors several times over, but we'll see...

 

I'm personally waiting for the October surprises. I think both sides have a powder keg waiting. We'll have to see when they set it off.

I'm not going to be surprised at that.

 

I personally see it going one of two ways:

 

a) Trump acting like an immature imbecile like he did in the Primaries. If that happens, Clinton needs to come off as the more Presidential grown up on stage.

 

b) Trump trying his best to act informed (which he will fail miserably if people pay attention to fact checkers after the debates). If that happens, Clinton needs to absolutely drill him with knowledge and facts.

She has the ability to do both.

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This is the best paragraph that I have read about Trump yet. Nails him down to a "T".

 

From The Guardian: I'm a doctor. The real issue isn't Hillary Clinton's health – it's that she might win

 

It’s almost as if Trump is reading from a textbook on how to invent and disseminate conspiracy theories. First, target those who feel most alienated and disempowered. Then, identify a complex social or political threat to control, which might include stagnant wages, demographic changes or terrorism. Next, identify an outsider group such as China, Latino immigrants, blacks or Muslims who you can blame. Then tell a simple, black-and-white story of conflict between good versus evil, us versus the other. Finally, say the system is "rigged" by the mainstream media or the elite.

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I actually expect the debates to widen the gap, somewhat. In case anyone couldn't tell already, it's going to be an hour or two of Trump hurling the kitchen sink at Clinton, her giving it back, and hopefully some actual substance on the issues. I'm hopeful the majority of that will come from Clinton, because I don't know that Trump could remember and articulate many of his policies if he needed to, since they've pretty much been rewritten by his advisors several times over, but we'll see...

 

I'm personally waiting for the October surprises. I think both sides have a powder keg waiting. We'll have to see when they set it off.

I'm not going to be surprised at that.

 

I personally see it going one of two ways:

 

a) Trump acting like an immature imbecile like he did in the Primaries. If that happens, Clinton needs to come off as the more Presidential grown up on stage.

 

b) Trump trying his best to act informed (which he will fail miserably if people pay attention to fact checkers after the debates). If that happens, Clinton needs to absolutely drill him with knowledge and facts.

She has the ability to do both.

 

 

Hopefully one of those things happen.

 

As to the bolded, I'm hoping the sane moderates and undecideds will do so. Trump's base will not. I actually heard one of his surrogates say we live in a "post-fact check society" and another argue that fact-checking is "elitism at work, while Donald Trump speaks the language of the people." Give me a break with that garbage.

 

Now his manager is talking about the "hidden Trump vote giving him an edge."

 

Let me translate: We're losing, but we don't want you to think we're losing, so let me make something up.

 

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