The General Election

[Red Five]

 

[zoogs]

I totally get the argument that people are simply embarrassed to express support for Trump to pollsters. It's one of the speculated explanations for post-convention bumps -- that they don't reflect swing voters making up minds, but rather, people getting fired up and having more confidence responding a certain way to calls.

I don't know if voter behavior will translate one-to-one from the polling data. Or even their own preferences.

We'll have to wait and see. To stop Trump, his opponents need to go and and vote him down. I hope this will happen and the current forecast is optimistic, but I wouldn't let down my guard. Trump isn't just going to lose automatically because the polls say so. Assuming so could have dangerous effects.

This isn't a very normal election year.

[BigRedBuster]

I would be extremely embarrassed to claim I'm voting for him.

[HuskerNation1]

 

 

 

 

I saw one of Trump's campaign people yesterday saying over and over that Trump doesn't see color at all.

 

That basically epitomizes how clueless Trump and his staff are. People are different. There is NO problem with "seeing color" and appreciating other peoples' cultures and differences. Most of the time when someone says they "don't see color," they're at the very least subconsciously racist or ignorant or have never been friends with someone who's not their own race. It's also something that very defensive people say. It's what people who are being accused of racism say because they hope it sounds good.

 

Part of that comment was focused on the fact that Hillary sees people of color as simply a vote and expects all blacks to continue to vote strongly Democratic despite data showing Democratic policies have made black lives worse.

And...Trump didn't give a crap about them until someone got it through his thick scull that he's getting his ass kicked. His new found love of blacks and Mexicans is pretty dang fake.

Hmm...his actions speak volumes. He has employed thousands of minorities and is talking about an issue most GOP candidates shy away from...the reality that black lives have gotten worse under Democratic policies.

Come on man......

 

I know some extremely racist people who employ minorities. Employing them doesn't mean squat.

 

And....I didn't say anything about disagreeing that Democratic policies have not done what they claimed they would. Obviously they have stunk.

Cmon man...do you really think Trump is racist after watching that video and seeing him interact with minorities througjout his whole life. I agree he has certainly said some dumb things to get attention, but you are starting to spew DNC talking points claiming he is a racist.

[HuskerNation1]

I totally get the argument that people are simply embarrassed to express support for Trump to pollsters. It's one of the speculated explanations for post-convention bumps -- that they don't reflect swing voters making up minds, but rather, people getting fired up and having more confidence responding a certain way to calls.

I don't know if voter behavior will translate one-to-one from the polling data. Or even their own preferences.

We'll have to wait and see. To stop Trump, his opponents need to go and and vote him down. I hope this will happen and the current forecast is optimistic, but I wouldn't let down my guard. Trump isn't just going to lose automatically because the polls say so. Assuming so could have dangerous effects.

This isn't a very normal election year.

There are several articles out discussing the Brexit vote and how pollsters were so wrong and missed thr undercurrent of support. They also show the parallels with Trump and how the US election plays out. Nate Silver who claims to be an expert in predictions was 100% wrong about Trump? Why? Because his "scientific" approach uses past election results to predict future outcomes. If the past poll and election results were so far off in predicting the primaries, I think its going to rely on these same polls to predict the November results.

[Moiraine]

 

I totally get the argument that people are simply embarrassed to express support for Trump to pollsters. It's one of the speculated explanations for post-convention bumps -- that they don't reflect swing voters making up minds, but rather, people getting fired up and having more confidence responding a certain way to calls.

I don't know if voter behavior will translate one-to-one from the polling data. Or even their own preferences.

We'll have to wait and see. To stop Trump, his opponents need to go and and vote him down. I hope this will happen and the current forecast is optimistic, but I wouldn't let down my guard. Trump isn't just going to lose automatically because the polls say so. Assuming so could have dangerous effects.

This isn't a very normal election year.

There are several articles out discussing the Brexit vote and how pollsters were so wrong and missed thr undercurrent of support. They also show the parallels with Trump and how the US election plays out. Nate Silver who claims to be an expert in predictions was 100% wrong about Trump? Why? Because his "scientific" approach uses past election results to predict future outcomes. If the past poll and election results were so far off in predicting the primaries, I think its going to rely on these same polls to predict the November results.

He is an expert. The reason he was wrong is because it's probability.

 

Explain to me why you put scientific in quotes. Statistics results are 100% correct if the analysts know what they're doing and there's random sampling. But if they don't have enough/the right variables to predict an outcome then there will be a smaller chance of the prediction being correct. When a claim is used making statistics it's always based off a probability of the thing happening. Not a surety. If the prediction turns out to be wrong it doesn't necessarily mean there was anything wrong with the method. It was always a probability for the thing to happen. There's always a chance it doesn't.

[Danny Bateman]

 

 

 

 

 

I saw one of Trump's campaign people yesterday saying over and over that Trump doesn't see color at all.

 

That basically epitomizes how clueless Trump and his staff are. People are different. There is NO problem with "seeing color" and appreciating other peoples' cultures and differences. Most of the time when someone says they "don't see color," they're at the very least subconsciously racist or ignorant or have never been friends with someone who's not their own race. It's also something that very defensive people say. It's what people who are being accused of racism say because they hope it sounds good.

Part of that comment was focused on the fact that Hillary sees people of color as simply a vote and expects all blacks to continue to vote strongly Democratic despite data showing Democratic policies have made black lives worse.

And...Trump didn't give a crap about them until someone got it through his thick scull that he's getting his ass kicked. His new found love of blacks and Mexicans is pretty dang fake.

Hmm...his actions speak volumes. He has employed thousands of minorities and is talking about an issue most GOP candidates shy away from...the reality that black lives have gotten worse under Democratic policies.

Come on man......

 

I know some extremely racist people who employ minorities. Employing them doesn't mean squat.

 

And....I didn't say anything about disagreeing that Democratic policies have not done what they claimed they would. Obviously they have stunk.

Cmon man...do you really think Trump is racist after watching that video and seeing him interact with minorities througjout his whole life. I agree he has certainly said some dumb things to get attention, but you are starting to spew DNC talking points claiming he is a racist.

 

 

Come on man...

 

He and his father were sued TWICE in the 70s by the Justice Department for housing discrimination against minorities.

 

He took out full page ads in the New York Daily News on his own dime calling for the death penalty for the innocent Central Park Five, who all happened to be black.

 

He took it upon himself to take potshots at the first African American president as a Muslim and/or a Kenyan.

 

He "didn't know anything about David Duke" even though he'd given interviews disavowing him decades earlier, meaning he knew exactly who he was and what he was about.

 

And never apologized for any of it.

 

Pull your head out of the sand, man. Or are you going to double down that he's not at least using racism to his own benefit?

[Red Five]

 

I totally get the argument that people are simply embarrassed to express support for Trump to pollsters. It's one of the speculated explanations for post-convention bumps -- that they don't reflect swing voters making up minds, but rather, people getting fired up and having more confidence responding a certain way to calls.

I don't know if voter behavior will translate one-to-one from the polling data. Or even their own preferences.

We'll have to wait and see. To stop Trump, his opponents need to go and and vote him down. I hope this will happen and the current forecast is optimistic, but I wouldn't let down my guard. Trump isn't just going to lose automatically because the polls say so. Assuming so could have dangerous effects.

This isn't a very normal election year.

There are several articles out discussing the Brexit vote and how pollsters were so wrong and missed thr undercurrent of support. They also show the parallels with Trump and how the US election plays out. Nate Silver who claims to be an expert in predictions was 100% wrong about Trump? Why? Because his "scientific" approach uses past election results to predict future outcomes. If the past poll and election results were so far off in predicting the primaries, I think its going to rely on these same polls to predict the November results.

 

 

I see people mention the bolded all the time. Go back and look at his models based on the polls. He hit 89% (or whatever it was) right. He was wrong when he said "I don't think Trump will win the nomination". His models showed Trump winning most primaries. When he put on his "pundit hat" and gave his own observations he was wrong (just like most everyone else). Hell, his model showed Trump winning the Iowa caucus, which was instead won by Cruz.

 

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/election-2016/primary-forecast/iowa-republican/

[Red Five]

Trump +15 in Nebraska in latest or only poll

 

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/nebraska/#now

[knapplc]

That's about what I get when I talk to people around Nebraska. This state is voting Trump. I've been hearing much the same thing since last Fall, when I thought it was absurd that he would be the Republican nominee.

[ZRod]

That's about what I get when I talk to people around Nebraska. This state is voting Trump. I've been hearing much the same thing since last Fall, when I thought it was absurd that he would be the Republican nominee.

So disappointing...

[BigRedBuster]

 

 

 

 

 

I saw one of Trump's campaign people yesterday saying over and over that Trump doesn't see color at all.

 

That basically epitomizes how clueless Trump and his staff are. People are different. There is NO problem with "seeing color" and appreciating other peoples' cultures and differences. Most of the time when someone says they "don't see color," they're at the very least subconsciously racist or ignorant or have never been friends with someone who's not their own race. It's also something that very defensive people say. It's what people who are being accused of racism say because they hope it sounds good.

Part of that comment was focused on the fact that Hillary sees people of color as simply a vote and expects all blacks to continue to vote strongly Democratic despite data showing Democratic policies have made black lives worse.

And...Trump didn't give a crap about them until someone got it through his thick scull that he's getting his ass kicked. His new found love of blacks and Mexicans is pretty dang fake.

Hmm...his actions speak volumes. He has employed thousands of minorities and is talking about an issue most GOP candidates shy away from...the reality that black lives have gotten worse under Democratic policies.

Come on man......

 

I know some extremely racist people who employ minorities. Employing them doesn't mean squat.

 

And....I didn't say anything about disagreeing that Democratic policies have not done what they claimed they would. Obviously they have stunk.

Cmon man...do you really think Trump is racist after watching that video and seeing him interact with minorities througjout his whole life. I agree he has certainly said some dumb things to get attention, but you are starting to spew DNC talking points claiming he is a racist.

 

Pardon me for my very jaded pessimism in political processes.

It looks like a political campaign piece put together to convince everyone the guy isn't racist. Sorry, I'll take his history of problems that have been spelled out here along with crap he has said in the last 12 months and go with that.

[BigRedBuster]

That's about what I get when I talk to people around Nebraska. This state is voting Trump. I've been hearing much the same thing since last Fall, when I thought it was absurd that he would be the Republican nominee.

I don't talk about politics much in real life. However, I do have a couple groups of friends that it has been brought up and they know I won't vote for the guy. Their instant reaction is..."How can you support Hillary"?

 

I'm so tired of it that I have just stopped even mentioning anything.

 

However, not one of them ever comes back with a good reason to vote for him. Their reasons always are..."well, I can't vote for Hillary so he's my only option".

 

Nebraska is a Red state and it's going to remain that way for generations....if not forever.

 

I'm surprised Foxnews doesn't have a satellite office here.

[mrandyk]

 

 

 

 

 

I saw one of Trump's campaign people yesterday saying over and over that Trump doesn't see color at all.

 

That basically epitomizes how clueless Trump and his staff are. People are different. There is NO problem with "seeing color" and appreciating other peoples' cultures and differences. Most of the time when someone says they "don't see color," they're at the very least subconsciously racist or ignorant or have never been friends with someone who's not their own race. It's also something that very defensive people say. It's what people who are being accused of racism say because they hope it sounds good.

Part of that comment was focused on the fact that Hillary sees people of color as simply a vote and expects all blacks to continue to vote strongly Democratic despite data showing Democratic policies have made black lives worse.

And...Trump didn't give a crap about them until someone got it through his thick scull that he's getting his ass kicked. His new found love of blacks and Mexicans is pretty dang fake.

Hmm...his actions speak volumes. He has employed thousands of minorities and is talking about an issue most GOP candidates shy away from...the reality that black lives have gotten worse under Democratic policies.

Come on man......

 

I know some extremely racist people who employ minorities. Employing them doesn't mean squat.

 

And....I didn't say anything about disagreeing that Democratic policies have not done what they claimed they would. Obviously they have stunk.

Cmon man...do you really think Trump is racist after watching that video and seeing him interact with minorities througjout his whole life. I agree he has certainly said some dumb things to get attention, but you are starting to spew DNC talking points claiming he is a racist.

 

How often do you hear of someone being found guilty of racial discrimination by a court of law? How can you be faced with that hard evidence, which doesn't even include the incredibly bigoted things he has said on the campaign trail, and think that he isn't racist? DNC talking points? Yeah, great point.

[BigRedBuster]

If me calling him a racist is spewing DNC talking points, what is it called when you "spew" all the negative stuff about Hillary?

 

Or....you can just not answer that and we can leave those kinds of comments and accusations out of the conversation.